irish pete ag06 said:Oh my... Black Monday!lobwedgephil said:
Crash is over the weekend.
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I don't know if anyone else saw this, but MARA had a huge volume spike on 7/8.
BrokeAssAggie said:
going to hold a net free $283 QQQ call overnight to see if we rip tomorrow.
Got a SpY $380 netfree. Glad we are on the same side this time
SoTXAg09 said:
I don't know if anyone else saw this, but MARA had a huge volume spike on 7/8.
Looked at this one last night. Set for for a little move looks possible. To 8.83ish first then maybe 10 or the 50EMA.
I looked at August and September 10c.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If we run this back to 3840 for max pain and sort of hang there until close to the end of the day, I may buy a few puts for next week.
OPEX week ends and almost $1T in SPX options will be closed, rolled, or expire today.
OPEX week ends and almost $1T in SPX options will be closed, rolled, or expire today.
Big OpEx day tomorrow, a day to be careful...
— Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III) (@SpecialSitsNews) July 15, 2022
"About $1.9 trillion of options are set to expire, obliging investors to either roll or start new hedges. Monthly event includes $925B of S&P 500-linked contracts & $395B of derivatives across single stocks, $GS estimates." pic.twitter.com/SRmNJGbc3d
Futures not doing much. Let's see what happens today.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I also might consider VIX 26 or 27 calls if we open and run green. Loto sized.
Rates Better...Equities Rally...Waller 75 Takes Hold...Chinese GDP Slump
Markets have digested a lot of economic news this week as the inflation versus recession argument continues to dominate trading both in equities and fixed income.. Today we have 1.9 trillion of options expiring, along with some important data with retail sales and Michigan Inflation numbers, both of which Waller referenced.. Bostic and Bullard speak and Daly is interviewed on a station we do not know... But the first two talk regularly, including a Bullard interview in the Nikkei two nights ago, so we do not expect anything new...
Fed...Waller drew the line in the sand yesterday that the base case is 75 and not 100... Market walked back the 2/10 inversion 10 basis and stopped the equity carnage that was tied to the 100 rate increase... But Waller did say he wanted to see retail sales today and Michigan... We think retail sales will be a bit stronger, but Michigan inflation is tough to predict... On the latter if 5-10 year inflation stays under 3.2, one can kiss 100 good bye... Above 3.3, Houston we have a problem... Next week we get housing numbers, and while we do not normally quote Sydney Australia housing prices, we saw in Citi's commentary that they were down 20%, all from mortgage rate increases... We see the same happening in the US with more of a lag.
Rates...if we are right, assuming the numbers come in as expected, we would not be surprised to see a rally in bonds, more so from the long end... 10 years have been range bound from about 3.10 to 2.90... Given we are at 2.936, we are closer to breaking out to lower yields than hitting resistance... 2.746 was the recent low yield in 10 years... That is what we are thinking... While 2/10 are still inverted 18 basis, 5/30 are positive 7... And 3 month bills to 10 years are now worth watching, currently at + 72...
Credit... Mortgage spreads have widened out to highest in two years at 148 ,comparing the FNMA 30 year current coupon spread to the 5/10 year blend... That is out 6 on the day..Our internal team thinks they offer value... One borrower came to market in corporates yesterday with awesome results..6.9 times oversubscribed and new issue concessions of only 11 basis... Recently those numbers have been 1.8 and 27 respectively... That is what happens when Pepsi has great earnings... But we do not think it indicates a thaw just yet..
Equities.. We were asked about the equity market yesterday as the S+P broke to 3740, below the recent support at 3800... We can see 3650 as holding for now, but that is not how we are thinking about equities... Hedge funds are short and fast money is under-invested, maybe substantially so... 1.9 trillion of options expire today...Goldman estimates 925 billion of S+P linked contracts and 395 billion of equity derivatives across single stocks... They also said that there are signs demand for options hedging is waning as money managers cut equity exposure... We see this as a bullish sign that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We are waiting to see that light more clearly...but the signs are there for a rally.
Chinese GDP was estimated to come in at 1.2% YOY, it came in at .4%... Awful, but that is what you expect when you shut down your economy... The 5.5% 2022 expectation looks like a long shot and probably impossible... Chinese mortgage holders are not paying their mortgages...30% of Chinese local governments may face severe debt strain... Lower rates and bringing 2023 infrastructure spending forward will help, but it will be a tough slog for China, and their equity markets were down another 2% overnight with the 5 day showing down 7% for Hong Kong and over 4% for the CSI 300
Waller's comments yesterday caused the dollar to peak, which had surged to 20 year highs, it prompted equities to recover much of their 2% sell off, and for most of the commodity space to recoup half their declines... Oil made back all of their 6 dollar losses and rebounded from 90 to 97, where they are now... BB is running a WH spin not to expect much from the talks in Saudi Arabia today... Classic trying to spin the expectations to the low side in case their is an announcement...
Volatility and lack of liquidity will be with us through the Fed meeting on July 27... ECB next week, where they will raise... And we may push the ranges a bit, but nothing has been decided... And as the Fed goes into blackout period later today, we could still get a Timaros story any time next week if Powell deems it necessary.
Markets have digested a lot of economic news this week as the inflation versus recession argument continues to dominate trading both in equities and fixed income.. Today we have 1.9 trillion of options expiring, along with some important data with retail sales and Michigan Inflation numbers, both of which Waller referenced.. Bostic and Bullard speak and Daly is interviewed on a station we do not know... But the first two talk regularly, including a Bullard interview in the Nikkei two nights ago, so we do not expect anything new...
Fed...Waller drew the line in the sand yesterday that the base case is 75 and not 100... Market walked back the 2/10 inversion 10 basis and stopped the equity carnage that was tied to the 100 rate increase... But Waller did say he wanted to see retail sales today and Michigan... We think retail sales will be a bit stronger, but Michigan inflation is tough to predict... On the latter if 5-10 year inflation stays under 3.2, one can kiss 100 good bye... Above 3.3, Houston we have a problem... Next week we get housing numbers, and while we do not normally quote Sydney Australia housing prices, we saw in Citi's commentary that they were down 20%, all from mortgage rate increases... We see the same happening in the US with more of a lag.
Rates...if we are right, assuming the numbers come in as expected, we would not be surprised to see a rally in bonds, more so from the long end... 10 years have been range bound from about 3.10 to 2.90... Given we are at 2.936, we are closer to breaking out to lower yields than hitting resistance... 2.746 was the recent low yield in 10 years... That is what we are thinking... While 2/10 are still inverted 18 basis, 5/30 are positive 7... And 3 month bills to 10 years are now worth watching, currently at + 72...
Credit... Mortgage spreads have widened out to highest in two years at 148 ,comparing the FNMA 30 year current coupon spread to the 5/10 year blend... That is out 6 on the day..Our internal team thinks they offer value... One borrower came to market in corporates yesterday with awesome results..6.9 times oversubscribed and new issue concessions of only 11 basis... Recently those numbers have been 1.8 and 27 respectively... That is what happens when Pepsi has great earnings... But we do not think it indicates a thaw just yet..
Equities.. We were asked about the equity market yesterday as the S+P broke to 3740, below the recent support at 3800... We can see 3650 as holding for now, but that is not how we are thinking about equities... Hedge funds are short and fast money is under-invested, maybe substantially so... 1.9 trillion of options expire today...Goldman estimates 925 billion of S+P linked contracts and 395 billion of equity derivatives across single stocks... They also said that there are signs demand for options hedging is waning as money managers cut equity exposure... We see this as a bullish sign that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We are waiting to see that light more clearly...but the signs are there for a rally.
Chinese GDP was estimated to come in at 1.2% YOY, it came in at .4%... Awful, but that is what you expect when you shut down your economy... The 5.5% 2022 expectation looks like a long shot and probably impossible... Chinese mortgage holders are not paying their mortgages...30% of Chinese local governments may face severe debt strain... Lower rates and bringing 2023 infrastructure spending forward will help, but it will be a tough slog for China, and their equity markets were down another 2% overnight with the 5 day showing down 7% for Hong Kong and over 4% for the CSI 300
Waller's comments yesterday caused the dollar to peak, which had surged to 20 year highs, it prompted equities to recover much of their 2% sell off, and for most of the commodity space to recoup half their declines... Oil made back all of their 6 dollar losses and rebounded from 90 to 97, where they are now... BB is running a WH spin not to expect much from the talks in Saudi Arabia today... Classic trying to spin the expectations to the low side in case their is an announcement...
Volatility and lack of liquidity will be with us through the Fed meeting on July 27... ECB next week, where they will raise... And we may push the ranges a bit, but nothing has been decided... And as the Fed goes into blackout period later today, we could still get a Timaros story any time next week if Powell deems it necessary.
today is probably just endless chop again, ending at 3800
I'm with you. This would not be surprising.
Quote:
We see this as a bullish sign that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We are waiting to see that light more clearly...but the signs are there for a rally.
yep, and I think the easier trades are over for this week. (not that this week was easy). Agree with sts and Spoony, chop all day wouldn't surprise me.
and this guy knows a lot more than me!
and this guy knows a lot more than me!
OPEX Day & all week #ES_F trapped bulls & bears to go absolutely nowhere pinning ~3800. My rally target yesterday was 3805 & we based all night there
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) July 15, 2022
Plan today: 3785-3805 is chop. As long as above 3805, targets =3835, 3855, 3900. 3785 fails, we see 3755. Floor falls out below https://t.co/sA4oaGkRG8
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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sts7049 said:
today is probably just endless chop again, ending at 3800
Scalping mode: engaged.
The power of government intervention. Thanks Obamacare. Should've seen this one coming.
Wonder if it'll ever correct?
Wonder if it'll ever correct?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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With SPX still a bit under max pain, I'm looking at names where we open close to max pain. What those stocks do early might be telling. Example if SPX is ripping but TSLA is trading sideways this might all be theta crushing for OPEX. If TSLA is ripping alongside SPX, we might have a chance for a green day. AAPL is another one, where it's already over max pain. If we're ripping there, it may be a real move.
and for irishpete... you be Tony Gwynn, I'll squeeze out singles like Ichiro...
of course right after i post that it breaks out of the chop zone
4x on these..bmoochie said:BrokeAssAggie said:
going to hold a net free $283 QQQ call overnight to see if we rip tomorrow.
Got a SpY $380 netfree. Glad we are on the same side this time
volume coming in on AAPL.Bob Knights Liver said:
With SPX still a bit under max pain, I'm looking at names where we open close to max pain. What those stocks do early might be telling. Example if SPX is ripping but TSLA is trading sideways this might all be theta crushing for OPEX. If TSLA is ripping alongside SPX, we might have a chance for a green day. AAPL is another one, where it's already over max pain. If we're ripping there, it may be a real move.
Hit three of my limit sells on TQQQ/UPRO by 9:35.
Um, how about over $21 please
I don't know, because they've made huge strides in directly employing physicians. I can't imagine they AREN'T telling these physicians how to practice in ways that reduce costs to UNH.
I can't recall if they're now the largest single employer of physicians in the country or the second.
I can't recall if they're now the largest single employer of physicians in the country or the second.
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
I had a personal interaction with UNH about 10 years ago for my daughter on a treatment that she needed (one of those helmets on kids) that they deemed was cosmetic. I consider myself a formidable opponent and it was one of the more challenging interactions I've ever had with any organization.docaggie said:
I don't know, because they've made huge strides in directly employing physicians. I can't imagine they AREN'T telling these physicians how to practice in ways that reduce costs to UNH.
I can't recall if they're now the largest single employer of physicians in the country or the second.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
too much volatility today for me. i made a few hundred bucks, i think that's it for me today
for the people trading today, i'm watching the price action, the move happened in futures and at the moment its been chop since that gap move.
I do want to remind Bob Knight that I was correct about what would happen
I do want to remind Bob Knight that I was correct about what would happen
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Hell yes. I started with Tony but I planned to post many more prolific base hitters to keep me motivated.
I agree with others on it could be a choppy day. OPEX and large open interest on spy 380p and qqq 290p. Sellers of these puts got to keep the price above these for them to expire worthless. It could chop back and forth across these levels all day with a finish to close above. After today, then maybe we will see longer term directional moves. Looking at qqq weekly chart shows it's been trading sideways.
irish pete ag06 said:
Hell yes. I started with Tony but I planned to post many more prolific base hitters to keep me motivated.
One drive trade at open. All I did was see the open push and went short.
Maybe I'll be able to do another.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
July:
Getting a little better at taking quicker and smaller profits. Had to re-train my brain from my standard long-term investing.
Getting a little better at taking quicker and smaller profits. Had to re-train my brain from my standard long-term investing.
That is great especially considering the chop we had during that month.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Getting a little better at taking quicker and smaller profits. Had to re-train my brain from my standard long-term investing.
Admittedly I'm still holding some TQQQ shares that are well in the red, but I don't want to trade those as the wash sale rule will apply. But the hope is to accumulate enough realized gains that those shares will be net free and I'll leave as the runners.
I'm about halfway to that goal.
I'm about halfway to that goal.
This is phenomenal dude!
Solid, great job man
irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:
SPY 383P
+2.44% on day
8 straight green.
Done for day, now off to ArcGIS to map for my brother and make more $ today.
Another green day! Trying to turn into Tony Gwynn with the base hits. Spending very little time in each trade.
Traded SPY both directions.
9 green in a row.
+2.83% image flagged, it's so random when it chooses to flag.
I'm overnighting a small SQQQ position.
10 in a row green.
This was a wild ride today.
Sold SQQQ overnight for profit.
Bought SPY puts when in the AM but ended up taking a loss when it rocketed at 9:30am.
Tried to flip to calls, but got shook out again.
Went to QQQ and got into calls... I honestly went a little too heavy and also got in a little too early, but I was convicted it was going to get a new HOD and it did and I scaled out.
Thankfully about 5 or 6 bars before this absolute stop loss raid.
I honestly feel a little dirty about how I traded today. I held too long. Every losing trade could have been a winner. I also somewhat revenge traded and it worked out, but man if it hadn't... I'd have been staring at a -10% type day. But green is green I reckon.
Edit to say I degen'ed... couldn't help but think there was at least one more flush left in QQQ so a small put
Back to my old ways today. In and out quick. See green take green. I'm done for the day. 11 green in a row.
Tony Gwynn. Trying to be like Tony.
12 green in a row. Today felt a little more like a double than a single.
I got close to cutting this too… at one point the trade was down 14%… got in a little too early.
One of the best weeks I can remember for me since trying to start actively trade options.
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