wanderer said:

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BREAKING: White House spokeswoman Jean-Pierre: I expect new CPI data to be highly elevated.

(Uh oh).

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 11, 2022

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She's not intelligent and couldn't tell you what CPI stands for. They know it's going to suck.

When is that released?

And you are correct sir.

Wait?!? A series of a couple modest rate hikes won't cure the largest dose of helicopter money ever dropped on humankind? Surely not.

ProgN said:

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You still on your recharge/refocus escape? If so, how are you feeling?

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Yes. We are hitting the road for two weeks shortly. I'm doing great, thank you for asking. Really getting quality time with my kids which has been awesome.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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ProgN said:

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You still on your recharge/refocus escape? If so, how are you feeling?

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Yes. We are hitting the road for two weeks shortly. I'm doing great, thank you for asking. Really getting quality time with my kids which has been awesome.

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I'm happy to hear that. For me, nothing is more important than family and your family feels it too. We're appreciative when you periodically check in, but no one on the planet is even near the same level as your family, especially us chart watching crack *****s. Thank you

ProgN said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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ProgN said:

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You still on your recharge/refocus escape? If so, how are you feeling?

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Yes. We are hitting the road for two weeks shortly. I'm doing great, thank you for asking. Really getting quality time with my kids which has been awesome.

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I'm happy to hear that. For me, nothing is more important than family and your family feels it too. We're appreciative when you periodically check in, but no one on the planet is even near the same level as your family, especially us chart watching crack *****s. Thank you

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This is good to hear. I have been doing the same, this explains the interruptions in postings. We are trying to to get to Tokyo to visit our son but not sure we can get a tourist visa….Have a few more trips planned this summer as well as trying to figure out what next path is…enjoy it.

Can y'all nerds fix the market, specifically Tesla by time I get back from Portugal next Monday? K thx.

Test

Bonfire1996 said:

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Test

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Recession Fears Dominate Trading..Treasuries Rally..2/10 Inversion...Euro Parity

Treasury trading saw some very large block buying of futures in the overnight session... Inflation fears are fueling recession fears and the Fed is looking to be boxed in... The faster they move the more increased fears of recession... While a potential 9% YOY number looms for inflation tomorrow, sentiment across the world remains weak... German ZEW Survey Expectations and Current Situations numbers CAME IN 32% LESS THAN BB SURVEY numbers... Russia closed their pipeline to Europe for repairs and many fear that it won't be reopened until the West caves on supporting Ukraine... It will get ugly, especially as we get towards the colder season...

Rates continue to rally and invert. 2/10 are now 10 inverted which is the most since the before the GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS , back in 2007... And the irony is that you have a 10 year auction today... So much for squeezing the short set up before the auction... No concession today... As for 5/30's it remains positive at 12, but rates have last weeks highs in their sights...10 years reached 3.10 on Friday's employment number...broke through 3% yesterday... And got to 2.90 this morning, currently at 2.93... We have 2.875 as the next resistance and then the low before the employment number of 2.74... With our line in the sand number of 2.71, where a real run of legacy shorts from CTA's and HF's are short... 2 years will struggle to get to 2.75 low of last week, but any surprise from CPI to the low side will help.

Fed... Bostic and George spoke yesterday.. Bostic, the historical Dove, was hawkish and confirmed 75 is the number in two weeks... George, the historical Hawk, was dovish as she feels the Fed is moving too fast and mentioned that the Fed should consider implementing a slower unwind of the balance sheet than projected... Meanwhile 75 remains the expectation for July, which will only change on the CPI number or something breaking in the next two weeks... 50 for September and 25 for November...

Corporates... Issuance remains on life support with ugly optics and reduced supply... Yesterday we saw two issuers come to market with 6.25 billion... Optics were lousy with 1.7 over-subscription and new issue concessions at 27 basis...JP Morgans Kolvanic advised investors to further cut holdings of corporate debt as a "partial hedge in an adverse scenario:... Historically Kolvanic has made good calls, lately he has been on the wrong side of the markets... As for corporate buying, we will go with Reider of Blackrock who has been adding to corporate debt...

Recession versus inflation will continue to dominate market trading... Both in rates and equities.. Even the dollar, which saw Euro parity at 5.46 am this morning and held for now... Risk off sentiment remains and we think treasuries will challenge the low yields even in the face of higher inflation.... 10 year breakeven rate has tumbled back to where it was last September, when the Fed ditched its transitory narrative... With CPI expected to be 8.8 tomorrow, a BREAKEVEN 10 YEAR RATE OF 2.3% SENDS THE SIGNAL THAT INVESTORS THINK INFLATION IS POISED TO SLOW DRAMATICALLY...

Unfortunately they're probably making the correct decision. Travel is a mess in the UK and all over Europe.

3 weeks ago I spent 1.5+ hr in the security queue at LHR Terminal 5 (by far the biggest terminal). It wasn't even that busy - when I finally got through to the checkpoint, there was one single scanner open and maybe 4-5 people working it - the largest terminal in one of the world's busiest airports in the middle of the summer.

Went to Paris by train in early June - had to wait at the chunnel for 1.5 hrs cause only one track was open due to not having enough staff. On the way back was delayed 6 hrs cause of an electrical problem.

There are also cultural things to take into consideration. Money is never the priority, and most everything is by the book processed, no rules to be broken no matter how much a tweak or two would cut the wait times in half. Workers lost their security clearance and there are rules on how long it takes to get it back.

When the govt shuts down for as long as they did and threw out the dole to everyone, what's the motivation to come back for meh wages just to get yelled at all day by fat sweaty American Karens in their moomoos?

Europeans mail it in at work when things are good. They are not going to magically work harder during times of adversity. The incentive isn't there.

Really enjoy reading these everyday. Thanks for educating and keeping dummies like me informed!