Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Stock Markets

24,639,755 Views | 233293 Replies | Last: 46 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

So I made a joke the other day that a goal I have is to have sex in all 50 states before I die. Wife went out and bought a scratch off map to track our progress.



If you have relations in New Jersey let me know. Last time I was there, I'm not sure if it was the lay over or the thick Italian guidos that ruined it for me.
Brewmaster
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

So I made a joke the other day that a goal I have is to have sex in all 50 states before I die. Wife went out and bought a scratch off map to track our progress.

LOL and smart woman, b/c she gets to travel to all 50 states as well!
Charismatic Megafauna
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
What's the Ron White bit? "I'd probably have a hard time getting in the mood too, if i had a fat sweaty guy on top of me"
BrokeAssAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oh yeah, she already said it has to be a "wine me and dine me" trip when I said let's just road trip and do it in the car.
Charismatic Megafauna
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
South Dakota is gonna be tough. Hope she likes Mad Dog and Cracker Barrel
Chipotlemonger
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:

South Dakota is gonna be tough. Hope she likes Mad Dog and Cracker Barrel
I disagree, can definitely find enough to do around Sioux Falls (east) or Rapid City (west).

Now, Nebraska, Kansas. Iowa....that may be a little more bleak.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I agree with you on South Dakota. The Nebraska national forest and the sand hills is really great scenery. Kansas you could do it in a corn field? Utah maybe talked her into a sevensome?
BrokeAssAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is great. So I've been to Kansas but not with the wife. The underground salt mines in Hutchinson could be fun. Sneak away from the tour group.
Charismatic Megafauna
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:

Utah maybe talked her into a sevensome?

Lol
Charismatic Megafauna
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Also nebraska has the original cabelas and that random ass bridge over the highway in the middle of nowhere. Does south dakota have either of those?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
How long do you want to ignore this user?
South Dakota. Now your in my backyard.

Slip off the trail at Mt. Rushmore, pull over on Needles Highway or in the Badlands, or Spearfish Scenic Highway.

For a steak, Mad Mary's, Flandreau, SD is my go to for anyone. Of course, no one beats Farmer's grill. (Had 2 inch pork chops tonight and they were delicious)

There's Cabelas and the commercial stuff, but you want Kone's Korner Gunshop, Castlewood, SD if you're a hunter. Also home of the hottest Governor in the U.S.

Carry on.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Kansas...another backyard of mine. Keepen it simple. Wichita. Scotch & Sirlion for dinner and get the Ernie Cut if you're a real man - it's around 65 oz as I recall (the talent that works in this restaurant is incredible...lived there 7 years and never saw these beauties anywhere around the city...elegant dining...smoke shows serving it up). Get a hotel by the river near the Exploration Palace. If you like homestyle food, go to Strouds.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Kansas...another backyard of mine. Keepen it simple. Wichita. Scotch & Sirlion for dinner and get the Ernie Cut if you're a real man - it's around 65 oz as I recall (the talent that works in this restaurant is incredible...lived there 7 years and never saw these beauties anywhere around the city...elegant dining...smoke shows serving it up). Get a hotel by the river near the Exploration Palace. If you like homestyle food, go to Strouds.
Thanks Farmer, now I'm craving steak with a side of fine ass for breakfast.
austinAG90
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
CPI Is Number One Focal Point This Week....Everything Else is Noise

We expect Wednesday's CPI print, good or bad, to be the focal point of the next move in rates and equities... If the print is "BAD", defined as anywhere near the expectation of 8.8% or possibly a 9% handle, then 75 rate increase for July is a done deal... And some talk of 100 could surface... If the number is closer to the low end of estimates, then 75 becomes less certain...

Overnight equities started flat and then went south into the European cross as Chinese stocks got hit on more Covid fallout, as well as fines against Tech companies... Hong Kong was down near 3% and CSI 300 down 1.67%...Chinese stocks had their worst day in about a month. A colleague sent a story that bank depositors got arrested for trying to get their money back... Baba and Tencent were down as is the KWEB ETF. US S+P futures hare rebounded about half of their losses since 2 am... The volatility of equities is such that we could have a positive day... The jury is still out as BB points out the likes of Wilson of Morgan Stanley is still negative while Citi is positive on the outlook of equities for the rest of the year...

The economy continues to plug along with the war between inflation and recession ongoing... Friday was a clear indicator that the employment picture in the US is no where near recession... And that the economy is showing strength... Or is that really the case? Jan Hatzius sent out a report to us and others early this morning questioning the strength of the report when compared to the Household Survey, which was almost as negative as the nonfarm number was positive.. Hatzius says "

"Fears of an imminent US recession have abated somewhat after the 372k nonfarm payroll gain reported for June. But there is no doubt that a labor market slowdown is underway. Job openings and quits are declining, jobless claims are rising, the ISM employment indices in manufacturing and services have fallen to contractionary levels, and many publicly traded companies have announced hiring freezes or slowdowns. Perhaps most tellingly, the household survey of employment has shown essentially no job gains for the past three months, both on a headline basis and when adjusted to the definitions of the establishment survey. While the household survey is much noisier than the establishment survey on a month-to-month basis, it picks up changes in net new firm creation in real time and therefore often outperforms the establishment survey at cyclical turning points, provided both measures are averaged over several months. This suggests that the still-robust nonfarm payroll prints of recent months probably overstate true job growth."

Sorry for quoting someone else's work but above is a good summary of the skepticism of Friday's number...Meanwhile Larry Summers said on WSW, that the US could still see a recession over the next 18 months, but the latest numbers have diminished his view that a recession has already begun.... So that brings back the question as to whether two negative GDP prints for the first two quarters of the year indicate a recession.. THE ANSWER IS CLEARLY NO.. The NBER looks at multiple numbers to determine whether there is a recession, including the GDI (gross domestic income), which is very positive... And something that both Waller and Bullard talking about last week... The current environment does not meet the criteria of a recession...

Oil...crazy ….Listened to a few podcasts from Macrovoices... One bearish on equities and one bullish... But that is not what we want to discuss... The hosts of this podcast are oil and gold people... And while they continue to be wrong on gold, we listen to their view on oil... They claim there are severe shortages in oil throughout the world... That Cushing storage is very low... And whoever is advising Biden on the Strategic oil reserve is giving him bad advice. The SPR is now down to 1986 levels as more barrels are being sold... Unfortunately there is no excess refining capacityin the US to refine the oil so the excess is being sold... That oil is heading to China, as to what they and others are saying... That is very bad optics, reducing our Strategic Reserve, when futures spreads show shortages, and Russia has the ability to squeeze the markets next winter when Europe really needs energy... And we know Putin is thinking just that... Not a good scenario... While the likes of Citi still see the potential of oil heading to 65 via a slowdown in the US, the JPM 380 number of last week still is in the back of our mind.

The jury is out on recession... Mastercard was out with numbers showing that consumers have not slowed their spending..June overall spending was up YOY of 9.5%..Airline was up 18.2% and lodging up 33.7%...Meanwhile Barron's had a great article on Car Repo... And how many cars are starting to be repossessed and that the used car numbers valuation are dropping...In June, used car prices were at 43%, or $10,046 ,above projected normal rates, according to Car Pilot... Might want to wait to buy that new or used car.

Fed...what is built in.. For now we are back to 75 for July and 50 for September...terminal rates for Q1 2023 have risen to 3.60, well off Wednesday lows of 3.15.. So up 45 from the lows...we have Barkin, Waller, Bostic, and Bullard out this week... The last three spoke last week and all were clear that 75 was there number... The Fed goes into the Black out period at Friday's close... But that does not mean the Fed won't make a call to our friends at the WSJ or FT... If they want to get a message across so beware...

Rates...liquidity is awful... But for ranges in the short term, it seems like 3.125 is good support for 2's and 10's... 3.10 was the high yield on Friday for 10 years... Next level of resistance is back to 3%...Curve is steepening today as the recession argument is getting some legs... 2/10 are slightly inverted with 5/30 are positive 14... But we read some interesting statistics and outlook on liquidity in the treasury market... First the size of the market has increased from 16 trillion to 23 trillion... And the move index of volatility is starting to look like the chart from 2020. According to Brokertec, the market depth on treasuries, measured by the total number of bids and offers, has been falling dramatically... Historically the depth averaged 150 million to 200 million over the past decade. That now is around 40-50 million now...yikes... In the past month 10 year daily moves have topped 15 basis points 10 times.

Cynical...we do not comment on stocks deals or individual stocks...period... But our old colleague, call him Mr. Rogers, reached out this weekend to say that Musk used the twitter distraction to sell Tesla stocks... Interesting... When the deal was announced the stock was 998, today it is 758 after bottoming at 628 on May 24... Maybe he is on to something...

Expect a very volatile, vacation liquidity, week with CPI the next trend to follow.
FJ43
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Trimmed some of the 388P bought at 5.02 here at 6.40
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Charismatic Megafauna
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Ttd puts for next week. It's been absolutely ripping this week. If the channel i have drawn going back to 5/27 holds, and especially if the macros pull back, it looks like 40 may be in the cards

I had to trim some of these at an easy 30%

I have one 44p left that i bought for .9, it's a double now but i think I'm doing to be greedy and go for a triple
Edit: I'm out at 2.25. Bounced here twice wed
FJ43
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FJ43 said:

Trimmed some of the 388P bought at 5.02 here at 6.40

Can't babysit so set trailing stop to keep nicely green on remainder.

Good luck gents.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
How long do you want to ignore this user?
One more. Lotto 390c at 2.15. Lotto size. Will cut quick if fails. Driving.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brian Earl Spilner
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bought some TQQQ at $26 with my UPRO cash from last week.
FJ43
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FJ43 said:

One more. Lotto 390c at 2.15. Lotto size. Will cut quick if fails. Driving.


Took these off at 2.47.

Hope anyone who took the 388p did well.

Done trading for the day. Look forward to reading the board tonight.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BrokeAssAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bulls are defending $384 on SPY.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Had some early horseback riding and archery with the kids. I scalped a little on TSLA puts. I think we're about to see QQQ, if not SPX and TSLA run back up to the top of their channels if they hold or go up from here. QQQ above channel midpoint and intraday 10sma crossed above 21sma. I'll wait for back test and possibly buy calls if we bounce.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I bought TSLA $720C for a quick scalp. Limit sell order at $22.

I'd probably been better off to just directly buy QQQ calls.
BrokeAssAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Archery while horse back riding!! Very impressive.

Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The 7 year old suggested that combination as well. I informed him I didn't want to remove any arrows from people today.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Come'on TSLA.. Follow the Qs up and touch that 5-day again.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Well that sucked.bi sold right before those three green candles pushed it back to $712. I bought a couple of the puts back. Trade with the trend, Bob.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
trading in some boxes since 9:30.

GOOG 2350-2360
AAPL 145-145.5
MSFT 264-265

See if those break one way or the other.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bob Knights Liver said:

I bought a couple of the puts back. Trade with the trend, Bob.
I sold these for a profit to get almost back to even for the day. Stupid against the trend calls that I let run too long.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

So I made a joke the other day that a goal I have is to have sex in all 50 states before I die. Wife went out and bought a scratch off map to track our progress.



This is a travel goal I can get behind!

Pun intended
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SPY 383P

+2.44% on day
8 straight green.

Done for day, now off to ArcGIS to map for my brother and make more $ today.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
texagbeliever said:

trading in some boxes since 9:30.

GOOG 2350-2360
AAPL 145-145.5
MSFT 264-265

See if those break one way or the other.
GOOG broke below. I'm entering into some MSFT puts since it is trading at the top of its box. See if GOOG can bring things down.

Got out of MSFT for a small loss. AAPL & MSFT both broke up on their box.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Nice play.
Brian Earl Spilner
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

Bought some TQQQ at $26 with my UPRO cash from last week.
This was in my Roth.

In my Brokerage, I adjusted my TQQQ sell limits down to start trimming profits. First order in at $26.50 for a 21.8% profit. ($2,268)

Next up at $27.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GOOG is hanging a bit here just below 2340. If it looks like it will close in the 2330-2338 range I might look to buy some puts to hold overnight.

I decided to hop in before close
First Page Last Page
Page 5547 of 6666
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.