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24,714,311 Views | 233404 Replies | Last: 7 sec ago by Moy
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Gross price action.

Stocks and bonds are positively correlated, meaning they both go up together. I think we are learning that they can also go down together.

If you had a 60/40 portfolio, you've gotten your ass beaten.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Out of TSLA for another loss and one where I could have taken a small profit instead. Getting chewed up today. I'll be a bit more patient.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Bonfire1996 said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Bonfire1996 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally

Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate

Would your ABBV position switch to GOOGL have anything to do with this?


I do love it when tech companies with amazing balance sheets that print money get caught in an overall sector rotation. GOOGL has no business trading at 19x earnings. It is a 30x PE stock all day.

The whole reason tech rotated to bear market was based upon the premise that cheap borrowing was gone for 3-5 years and marginally profitable or unprofitable tech was going to have a harder time making profit projections. That's the reason. That doesn't apply to GOOGL. They have more cash on the balance sheet than total debt. Nonetheless, cheap borrowing will be back in 2023 so it's time for tech to run.

If GOOGL isn't everyone's number 1 long term buy right now, I can't help anyone.

Now, more importantly, I want to see VLO pullback to $95 and I can rotate in. What's your thoughts there?
I can't address VLO specifically, but I'll share this. Can VLO pullback to $95? Yes, I think it could. The Administration has done a good job picking winners and losers and right now all O&G is squarely in their crosshairs so there's that.

In all past Recessions O&G stocks declined; however, the structural side of O&G to produce was present in times before where today it is not. Demand reaction and destruction is not showing itself yet. The S&D's don't reflect it; however, with the EIA being able to not publish data one week and then delay the next week (a voltage problem on their servers....Fed Gov't server voltage problem?), we'll see what they "cook up" for numbers today.

Is there manipulation going on in O&G? Yes there is. This time we will see if fundamentals overtake the manipulation. Crude production is not large enough to cover demand. SPR discharges are to stop at end of Oct/beginning of Nov. Wood burning stoves are the hottest selling items in Germany today. Germany is restarting their coal burning electric plants (not the nuclear one's though...insanity). Austria is telling their industry to start seeking alternative fuels to operate their plants, no NG and prefer oil fueled. Germany Union head states over weekend that all of German industry is in jeopardy over the Russian Gas supply and thinks a million workers will be sent home due an inability to start a manufacturing plant. LNG shipments aren't going to save Europe this year. Come November and there is a cold spell blowing through, we'll see if $90 or less crude is available,....it won't be. Patience. The S&D shows today...and will show tomorrow....you can't heat your home without good old fossil fuel. Green Energy dream turns to nightmare. The SPR discharges are key. The Administration can only cover up a shortage until it can't.

Yesterday, 10% drop in crude/down $10.00 per barrel? While Arab Light August got priced at up $2.80 a barrel. OPEC+ is not playing nice with this Administration and likewise.

All analysts are upgrading XOM to higher new targets - wonder why? The recent stock action suggests otherwise. There is a real good chance XOM will be a debt free company by mid-2023, have a $30 billion stock buyback taking place and making lots of money. Something isn't quite right in all this, but if this Administration thinks they can control energy prices until the election is over, that's the goal. If Radical Libs win the mid-terms, God help us all.

If VLO comes near your target soon, I'd lock it up.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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TSLA wants to confirm that W pattern. It wants it.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:

TSLA wants to confirm that W pattern. It wants it.

Dammit. I did sell for a little profit that time. Let's see if the macros can keep the green going.
LMCane
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Bonfire1996 said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Bonfire1996 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally

Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate

Would your ABBV position switch to GOOGL have anything to do with this?


I do love it when tech companies with amazing balance sheets that print money get caught in an overall sector rotation. GOOGL has no business trading at 19x earnings. It is a 30x PE stock all day.

The whole reason tech rotated to bear market was based upon the premise that cheap borrowing was gone for 3-5 years and marginally profitable or unprofitable tech was going to have a harder time making profit projections. That's the reason. That doesn't apply to GOOGL. They have more cash on the balance sheet than total debt. Nonetheless, cheap borrowing will be back in 2023 so it's time for tech to run.

If GOOGL isn't everyone's number 1 long term buy right now, I can't help anyone.

Now, more importantly, I want to see VLO pullback to $95 and I can rotate in. What's your thoughts there?

just bought another share of GOOGL based on your recommendation
Diggity
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

XOM Pre-Guidance was released late today. If you own XOM, ditch the baloney sandwich tonight and go get a filet.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-signals-big-profits-second-quarter-oil-gas-output-2022-07-01/

Boom!

In other news....It was reported that the ESG movement went up in smoke in a clean energy fire after the XOM Pre-Guidance release.
can no longer afford baloney sandwich.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I keep getting told there is only a recession in commodities. In that case, pinbone porterhouse steaks should be front and center on your dinner plate.

As for XOM dip, hang on for 2Q earnings where ~$4.11 per share will be reported....and analysts are now coming out calling for $4.05 to $4.08 per share AFTER the K8 was filed....while analysts will then profess to the market it was a "small beat"....and they'll take XOM to the woodshed. I'm being sarcastic, sorta..


ETA: I copied and pasted the post below from another board that is a good summation for today - tongue in cheek sarcasm at the end, but nicely phrased .

"XOM trading like a company on the verge of bankruptcy... all the better, I really do hope they announce another $10B in share buybacks at 2Q. At this point, it would be foolish to spend money on CAPEX, when the market speaks, you listen, and I guarantee every P&E company is listening to what the market is telling them (i.e. there is too much oil in the market, cut back your CAPEX). GL, and if you saw XOM trading as though it was losing money and had no earnings potential... well, good on you."
Diggity
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yeah, I sold off half my XOM stake in the low 100's, which I'm obviously cool with now.

Now, I'm just wondering if/when it will be a good time to buy back in.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Some experts calling for $75 as the absolute low if it gets there. ... Like < 7 P/E. A $75 share price would equate to a $60 crude price in normal instances and we at $97.06 as I type. XOM prints money when crude is over $45/$50. Yes, there is a manipulation, just know that and you're fine. I'd likely convert some other stocks (at losses) to buy $75. Some may call O&G a dying industry and others calling it a Value Trap. Fine with me.

ETA:

Forgot to add, Dividend increase usually comes in Q3.
DOW 30 "might" invite XOM back in August. That's bullish for $2 to $3.
Jet Black
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What time does the fed spew?
zebros_95
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AG
1pm Central
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
So .75 and tank? 100 and moon? Vice-versa?
ProgN
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

So .75 and tank? 100 and moon? Vice-versa?
This is just the minutes from the last meeting. The rate meeting is at the end of the month.
Lake08
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A market that has to wait on very small events to show direction, normally is in trouble for the short-term.
Charismatic Megafauna
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But the market is looking for hints at what the next raise will be, right? If he says "100 is not off the table" or similar, do we rip or tank?
BrokeAssAggie
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signs pointing to a move up to close the day..
TecRecAg
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AG
Lake08 said:

A market that has to wait on very small events to show direction, normally is in trouble for the short-term.
agree. this sort of pins and needles mentality doesn't seem very fruitful.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like O&G reversing today. Bottomed and now rallying back. Possible green hammer day if it closes strong. Bought 2 GUSH 110C expiring next Friday. Unclear if relief bounce or what but definitely bullish in very near term.
BrokeAssAggie
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volume picking up... let's see what we do.
BrokeAssAggie
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we about to rip..
ryanhnc10
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AG
Trying to trip all the stops first apparently
ProgN
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BrokeAssAggie said:

volume picking up... let's see what we do.

Brewmaster
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

But the market is looking for hints at what the next raise will be, right? If he says "100 is not off the table" or similar, do we rip or tank?


i'm not singling you out, just many of us could use more Mancini type wisdom, myself included
Brewmaster
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duuuuuude! wow, but careful there, lol. didn't you just get back from band camp?
ProgN
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BREwmaster said:

duuuuuude! wow, but careful there, lol. didn't you just get back from band camp?
Nope, it's been a few weeks since I was at banned camp.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Green Energy Steal....The Energy Hoax....Keeps getting better by the day. When in threat that your ass might freeze in the winter, there's a way to backstroke in the summer so as to eliminate that threat. LMAO

Europe will count natural gas and nuclear as green energy in some circumstances...you bet your ass they will.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/europe-natural-gas-nuclear-are-green-energy-in-some-circumstances-.html

To Bonfire1996 - "If VLO comes near your target soon, I'd lock it up."
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I made back my earlier losses on this last hour with TSLA calls. Not a great day, but a little green.
ProgN
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I'm enjoying the Dutch farmers shoving tractors up their overlords asses.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Good grief! That second one. Wow!!!
ProgN
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Good grief! That second one. Wow!!!
Well, it is hump day.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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That situation is not going to end well.

For those of you not following, basically, Dutch gov't telling farmers some have to go out of business due to nitrogen emissions. Truth is, the gov't wants to confiscate the land for refugee/ghetto housing. Word got out and hell is breaking loose. (The video of the cops that tried to infiltrate the farmer group was a good watch.)
gougler08
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Oof, I just looked at some of my small caps and total % down from when I purchased last year...that was dumb
Jet Black
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Tomorrow could be ugly
BaylorSpineGuy
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Market was pinned today. Mancini is purely a price guy, but todsy had more to do with options mechanics, IMO. Cem Karsan could show and likely will show a bunch of emojis to explain what happened today.

But yes, what's the old saying? Fade the first move from FOMC. It could be a down day tomorrow. But the move is coiled. And I can only interpret today's false breakout from above 3850 as a bull trap. Last two days have been bear traps. I've been too stupid to push buttons either way. Options premium has been eaten up but hoping to make up for some pain tomorrow.
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