Bonfire1996 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Bonfire1996 said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.
I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally
Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate
Would your ABBV position switch to GOOGL have anything to do with this?
I do love it when tech companies with amazing balance sheets that print money get caught in an overall sector rotation. GOOGL has no business trading at 19x earnings. It is a 30x PE stock all day.
The whole reason tech rotated to bear market was based upon the premise that cheap borrowing was gone for 3-5 years and marginally profitable or unprofitable tech was going to have a harder time making profit projections. That's the reason. That doesn't apply to GOOGL. They have more cash on the balance sheet than total debt. Nonetheless, cheap borrowing will be back in 2023 so it's time for tech to run.
If GOOGL isn't everyone's number 1 long term buy right now, I can't help anyone.
Now, more importantly, I want to see VLO pullback to $95 and I can rotate in. What's your thoughts there?
I can't address VLO specifically, but I'll share this. Can VLO pullback to $95? Yes, I think it could. The Administration has done a good job picking winners and losers and right now all O&G is squarely in their crosshairs so there's that.
In all past Recessions O&G stocks declined; however, the structural side of O&G to produce was present in times before where today it is not. Demand reaction and destruction is not showing itself yet. The S&D's don't reflect it; however, with the EIA being able to not publish data one week and then delay the next week (a voltage problem on their servers....Fed Gov't server voltage problem?), we'll see what they "cook up" for numbers today.
Is there manipulation going on in O&G? Yes there is. This time we will see if fundamentals overtake the manipulation. Crude production is not large enough to cover demand. SPR discharges are to stop at end of Oct/beginning of Nov. Wood burning stoves are the hottest selling items in Germany today. Germany is restarting their coal burning electric plants (not the nuclear one's though...insanity). Austria is telling their industry to start seeking alternative fuels to operate their plants, no NG and prefer oil fueled. Germany Union head states over weekend that all of German industry is in jeopardy over the Russian Gas supply and thinks a million workers will be sent home due an inability to start a manufacturing plant. LNG shipments aren't going to save Europe this year. Come November and there is a cold spell blowing through, we'll see if $90 or less crude is available,....it won't be. Patience. The S&D shows today...and will show tomorrow....you can't heat your home without good old fossil fuel. Green Energy dream turns to nightmare. The SPR discharges are key. The Administration can only cover up a shortage until it can't.
Yesterday, 10% drop in crude/down $10.00 per barrel? While Arab Light August got priced at up $2.80 a barrel. OPEC+ is not playing nice with this Administration and likewise.
All analysts are upgrading XOM to higher new targets - wonder why? The recent stock action suggests otherwise. There is a real good chance XOM will be a debt free company by mid-2023, have a $30 billion stock buyback taking place and making lots of money. Something isn't quite right in all this, but if this Administration thinks they can control energy prices until the election is over, that's the goal. If Radical Libs win the mid-terms, God help us all.
If VLO comes near your target soon, I'd lock it up.
