Low volume the last two days. I try to balance any swing or longer-term holdings in case of an aggressive move either way. I try to remove directional biased for my day trades. All of that is easier said than done, though.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm interested in Thursday. It's the last day of the qtr and if we have a big green day, then it could be mutual funds buying leaders before the statements are released. If we crater, then they probably have a heads up that this qtr is gonna suck.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I personally think this quarter is gonna suck regardless of how we close Q2, but I'm removing all biases.
Dimon said there's a hurricane coming 3 weeks ago. Was he tipping his hand or front running? I'm guessing he's being a little honest but no one knows the timeline. If they raise rates in July, this market will dump. Fully anticipating further rate hikes.
Nothing is priced in. Every time they say that, things trade down within 24 hrs of announced hikes.
Nothing is priced in. Every time they say that, things trade down within 24 hrs of announced hikes.
I do too but I'm focusing on the conference calls and subsequent stock reaction. The majority of companies used Q1 to guide lower, like swallowing their castor oil to get it over with. I'm looking for if companies warn again and not decimated further, but actually show strength, then that's a pretty good indication the big money knows the lows are in. This is just based on my experience over the years so no one take this as gospel. It's just some things I'm focusing on beginning next month.
The market is already expecting further rate hikes, and has been already pricing them in. The market bigs are always positioned 3 moves ahead. Watch GDP, CPI and PPI in a few weeks. If that shows a possible topping out, then I wouldn't be surprised by a rally when they raise rates again because the market will believe that it could be one of the last rate increases.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Dimon said there's a hurricane coming 3 weeks ago. Was he tipping his hand or front running? I'm guessing he's being a little honest but no one knows the timeline. If they raise rates in July, this market will dump. Fully anticipating further rate hikes.
Nothing is priced in. Every time they say that, things trade down within 24 hrs of announced hikes.
Are people going to start hoarding Plan B pill like toilet paper?
ENDP rocketing on news of a run on the pill and purchase limits.
ENDP rocketing on news of a run on the pill and purchase limits.
Futures trading in a super tight range so far this evening. Barely 4-5 points either way from the open earlier this afternoon. Usually moves more actively than this.
Everyone might be waiting for the final Q1 GDP numbers, which will be released at 7:30am central.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Futures trading in a super tight range so far this evening. Barely 4-5 points either way from the open earlier this afternoon. Usually moves more actively than this.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yep. Any surprises and we could get some fireworks. It could be a good news = bad, bad news = good senario.Triple_Bagger said:Everyone might be waiting for the final Q1 GDP numbers, which will be released at 7:30am central.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Futures trading in a super tight range so far this evening. Barely 4-5 points either way from the open earlier this afternoon. Usually moves more actively than this.
Based on the bearish engulfing candle from yesterday, I'm guessing big money already knows. We find out today and it's a follow through day. Just a guess….
Buddy sent me an OPIS alert article with Citi calling for $85 oil (Brent by Q4) so keep an eye on OPEC and Russia (well, China too if they come back on line or keep locking down). I've seen other articles with oil traders hedging late Q4 oil down in the $80s also so something is going on there for sure.
If you are heavy into oil stocks you may want to keep a watchful eye on oil. I actually bought puts on refining the week before they got hammered last week (was not expecting that drop that soon), but made 4x and got out of them. Will look for a top on XOM, CVX, FANG, MPC, VLO, etc and probably buy puts on a big up day out to October or something.
After the driving season ends, you may see demand fall significantly.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. (My accounts have a lot of red from tech stocks so I don't know a darn thing about the markets.)
If you are heavy into oil stocks you may want to keep a watchful eye on oil. I actually bought puts on refining the week before they got hammered last week (was not expecting that drop that soon), but made 4x and got out of them. Will look for a top on XOM, CVX, FANG, MPC, VLO, etc and probably buy puts on a big up day out to October or something.
After the driving season ends, you may see demand fall significantly.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. (My accounts have a lot of red from tech stocks so I don't know a darn thing about the markets.)
BREAKING
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 29, 2022
US Q1 final GDP -1.6% vs -1.5% expected
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
That doesn't seem toooo bad? Now the first move is fake, right? Maybe priced in+ with yesterday's dip?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Could also be as simple as hedging on putin falling from power and sanctions lifting
There have also been some fairly large, heavy PDP deals announced the last few weeks that require significant hedging from the banks to get the deals done. Not sure if that would pop up or make a difference with the people you are talking to.Charismatic Megafauna said:
Could also be as simple as hedging on putin falling from power and sanctions lifting
Banks are gonna take anything hedged in the $80s by operators and not look back at this point especially with some of the huge hits small/mid cap guys took the last quarter or their hedges
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yesterday we lost the 5-day and the 20-ema on most macro charts. This could be to clear calls and a bear trap that gives us a big green run this week. However if we don't reclaim those MAs very quickly, I think we'll head to 3500.
There's the gap fill on SPY (~378.83) & SPX (~3802.50) going back to 6/23.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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This green 5-min candle on SPX and QQQ looks fishy. I still think we're going down and not reversing. Holding for now though.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
This green 5-min candle on SPX and QQQ looks fishy. I still think we're going down and not reversing. Holding for now though.
Lol. Now we're off the bottom of the channel so we should tag the midpoint. Lol, is this an inverse of yesterday?
Q1 final GDP wasn't terrible but the fact that it dropped 0.1% with each estimate might be bad sign for the Q2 GDP estimate next month.Charismatic Megafauna said:
That doesn't seem toooo bad? Now the first move is fake, right? Maybe priced in+ with yesterday's dip?
So far it looks like the 1st move was fake. I took a small long with SPY off 378. Would like to hold until 385 but set stop just below 380.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I bought some TQQQ on that backtest down to the 5-min channel midpoint at $25.01. Target $27.50. I'll sell if we break down from here. I'm staying away from options at least early this morning.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I took some profits here with SPX bouncing off a pivot at 3837.56 I had marked.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I bought all of the TQQQ back that I'd taken profits on at $25.01 again on a backtest to opening prices of QQQ and SPX. Same $27.50 target. I'll be quick to get out if we break down below midpoint and opening prices.
AMZN has had a strong opening with high volume.
New YTD lows for AMD. NVDA right there too.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Stopped out. Grand total I lost $10.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Saltyag15 said:
New YTD lows for AMD. NVDA right there too.
Is this because people expect a flood of used chip availability+ cancelation of previous orders from crypto miners? In addition to the other recession concerns? Semis absolutely getting railed the past month or so! And not in the good way.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I will get back in to TQQQ should both SPX and QQQ regain opening prices. If we get past the HOD, this forms a nice little W on 5-min charts and we could see a good move here.
In at $25.00, before I could finish typing this.
In at $25.00, before I could finish typing this.
My bad. I purchased $1500 of CCL at close yesterday in my retirement IRA.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Fist hour volume on QQQ is the highest since 6/16. For SPY, 6/24 was bigger.
How is an energy ETF like XLE down almost 1% today when /CL is up almost 2% and pushing $115? Something seems off about that.
Inverse h&s on SPY here?
AMZN 110 and AAPL 140. Watching to see how market handles. Those two and MSFT are some of the few green stocks left.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
I will get back in to TQQQ should both SPX and QQQ regain opening prices. If we get past the HOD, this forms a nice little W on 5-min charts and we could see a good move here.
In at $25.00, before I could finish typing this.
Stopped out again. Down $32 this time. I'll be a bit more patient next time and wait for the W or M to fully materialize before going in, since we may just chop from here. TQQQ of QQQ above 285, SQQQ if QQQ below 282.50.
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