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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 2:58p, 6/16/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
I expect a low volume, flat day tomorrow. Going for a bike ride in the morning.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to BlueTaze • 3:04p, 6/16/22
BlueTaze said:
Next CPI is July 13 where we see if June expectations came down. If we are near 3500 by then I'm going full bore on risk asset calls out to Q1 2023.

I'm covering my SEAS short this week.
If the rest of the country is like my neighborhood in Austin, I think rent and housing will be down on the next CPI. My neighbor lost his renters when he tried to hike their rent 30%. He tried to find new tenets for 6 weeks before giving up and listing it for sale. Sat on the market for a month and now he's given up and it's just sitting empty.

Homes in my neighborhood were being bought same day they were listed last year and prices were up 50% over the previous year. Now there's 5 vacant houses in a neighborhood with 74 homes.
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Ccutamu
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3:33p, 6/16/22
Redler went in with more blood money today.

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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Jet Black • 3:56p, 6/16/22
AG
Jet Black said:
Bounce tomorrow or another visit from Ben O. Verbich?
Took me a sec.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:21p, 6/16/22
AG
I did say I would check in.

We are at -3 ATR on the daily and weekly. I am buying for a bounce
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 4:21p, 6/16/22
AG
Pretty unbelievable how fast that turned around.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:28p, 6/16/22
AG
I wanted to post "this is overdone" or "this feels like organized selling" but it felt like Joe Dirt in the oilfield "It's my first day!" "I don't know what I'm doing!"

I like that 3670 held for the close
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 4:48p, 6/16/22
Triple_Bagger said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
I expect a low volume, flat day tomorrow. Going for a bike ride in the morning.
Forgot tomorrow was OPEX. I'll be around in the morning just in case we get fireworks. I read that there's over $3T in options expiring tomorrow.
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gougler08
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4:49p, 6/16/22
AG
I also put about half the cash I've had on the sideline in today, AMZN, TGT, WYNN

This is for long term in the retirement account though
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South Platte
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 5:00p, 6/16/22
Triple_Bagger said:
BlueTaze said:
Next CPI is July 13 where we see if June expectations came down. If we are near 3500 by then I'm going full bore on risk asset calls out to Q1 2023.

I'm covering my SEAS short this week.
If the rest of the country is like my neighborhood in Austin, I think rent and housing will be down on the next CPI. My neighbor lost his renters when he tried to hike their rent 30%. He tried to find new tenets for 6 weeks before giving up and listing it for sale. Sat on the market for a month and now he's given up and it's just sitting empty.

Homes in my neighborhood were being bought same day they were listed last year and prices were up 50% over the previous year. Now there's 5 vacant houses in a neighborhood with 74 homes.
https://therealdeal.com/texas/2022/06/16/that-austin-housing-bust-not-likely/

This article and the related report seem to think Austin isn't a bubble city. Differing opinions always make these bubbles hard to identify.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to South Platte • 5:27p, 6/16/22
Yes, I've read a few articles making similar statements and my friend in commercial real estate tells me there's a large backlog of permits for more companies to move their offices here. We could be moving towards a San Francisco situation with all the tech companies coming here.

But I think there will be a drop in home prices or they'll be flat for a few years. There's a limited number of home buyers with median home prices at $550k, mortgage rates at 6%, and property taxes north of 3%. That's a mortgage payment of $4.5k assuming 20% down. People won't be buying their first home until they're 40 at these prices.
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ryanhnc10
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In reply to gougler08 • 6:23p, 6/16/22
AG
gougler08 said:
I also put about half the cash I've had on the sideline in today, AMZN, TGT, WYNN

This is for long term in the retirement account though


Any specific case for WYNN vs some of the other casino stocks? Just curious as I have a few on my watch list
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:30p, 6/16/22
First time making the "Paloma". Pretty tasty drink on a hot summer day.
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gougler08
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In reply to ryanhnc10 • 6:34p, 6/16/22
AG
I've always just thought they were more established whereas PENN felt more flash in the pan. I think any big name casino stock is good but right now though
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FJ43
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6:39p, 6/16/22

Reading the thread.

We've had gambling, trading, investing , blackjack, goin up, more pain, etc, etc.

Cash IS a position gents. Risk management is key. It's not for everyone.

I seldom post things if ever like this but if you're not disciplined you will get crushed.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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6:40p, 6/16/22
https://financenews.upexampaper.com/iea-warns-of-long-term-deficits-in-refined-products-more-finance-news/

Or, below so you don't have to click.

Quote:
The IEA issued a warning for global oil markets Wednesday, saying supply challenges will persist.

Three million barrels per day of Russian crude will disappear as sanctions set in, the IEA predicts.

"Severely restricted refining capacity is causing markets to price in long-term supply deficits in key refined products," the report said.

The current turmoil across energy markets is set to worsen in 2023, as OPEC+ will face severe supply challenges while fuel prices will stay high, the International Energy Agency warned in its first forecast for next year.

The Paris-based think tank said Wednesday that global oil supplies will "struggle" to keep up with rising demand.

In particular, it highlighted that Russian barrels will disappear from this year's market at a rate of 3 million barrels per day as more sanctions set in. That result in overall OPEC+ production falling by 520,000 barrels per day next year.

"OPEC+ would have to further tap into its dwindling capacity cushion, reducing it to historic lows," the IEA said in its report.

Over recent months, oil prices have skyrocketed thanks to dwindling stockpiles and repercussions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In March, the price of Brent crude briefly hit $139 a barrel. It's hovering near $120 Wednesday.

US gas prices, too, have surged, recently breaking the $5-a-gallon threshold for the first time ever. And the IEA warned prices will stay high for a while as refineries live "hand-to-mouth" amid low crude and product inventories.

"Severely restricted refining capacity is causing markets to price in long-term supply deficits in key refined products," the agency said. "This translates into a structurally elevated product price outlook."
Can't wait til hurricane season arrives.
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FJ43
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6:43p, 6/16/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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SF2004
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7:47p, 6/16/22
AG
Thread has gotten a little too hopium for me the last few weeks.

Also more post like "we have to reach 273 for 274 and 275 to be in play"... well no *****

We need $30K and more FJ!
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 8:11p, 6/16/22
Triple_Bagger said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
I expect a low volume, flat day tomorrow. Going for a bike ride in the morning.
Yeah, only 3.4 trillion in options expiring tomorrow before a three day weekend. Tomorrow will likely be very trappy.
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wanderer
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In reply to SF2004 • 8:20p, 6/16/22
It is a bummer. In the last 6mo we've now "lost" 4 of the thread's top posters (OA, FJ, McKinnises, 30k)
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:26p, 6/16/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
Good thought here. If any move up I'm thinking slapped back down. I'm still eyeballing 345-354...ish to dig in.

Wondering If 24' LEAPS these days may be the play.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to SF2004 • 8:32p, 6/16/22
SF2004 said:
Thread has gotten a little too hopium for me the last few weeks.

Also more post like "we have to reach 273 for 274 and 275 to be in play"... well no *****

We need $30K and more FJ!
My advice is to not get too focused on specific numbers and levels and run the risk of not participating in a reversal because it didn't hit your targeted level. I've done that in the past and it hurts. The markets are so oversold and great companies are on sale. You might consider nibbling at leaders that you believe at a discount. You'd still have some dry powder and you'll never pick the bottom but it's better than not participate because you're waiting to fire all cannons at a certain level. Trust me, the pain of riding the market down is only compounded if you're all in cash and at least not in the reversal.

Two things that you should watch is next month's CPI. If it shows a decrease then the market will think inflation may have topped out, which would be a positive. Also, watch price action of stocks when earnings season ramps up in July. If some big names miss estimates, or even come in line, and have weak guidance but don't get crushed then that's an indication that they've bottomed or damn close.



Ok guys, if I'm absent for a few days, I'll be back.
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:34p, 6/16/22
FJ43 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
Good thought here. If any move up I'm thinking slapped back down. I'm still eyeballing 345-354...ish to dig in.

Wondering If 24' LEAPS these days may be the play.
I've been nibbling on LEAPS during this downdraft on some of the leaders. Not saying we're right, but we are on the same page.
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 8:42p, 6/16/22
ProgN said:
FJ43 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
Good thought here. If any move up I'm thinking slapped back down. I'm still eyeballing 345-354...ish to dig in.

Wondering If 24' LEAPS these days may be the play.
I've been nibbling on LEAPS during this downdraft on some of the leaders. Not saying we're right, but we are on the same page.
Might be onto something. I'd probably be close to ATM or so. Not too far OTM if above.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 8:44p, 6/16/22
Uh oh...ban camp incoming ?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to wanderer • 8:49p, 6/16/22
wanderer said:
It is a bummer. In the last 6mo we've now "lost" 4 of the thread's top posters (OA, FJ, McKinnises, 30k)


What happen to mckinnies?
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:50p, 6/16/22
FJ43 said:
Uh oh...ban camp incoming ?
Yes, that is a definite possibility but it needed to be said.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 8:53p, 6/16/22
AG
Apparently they had to do some work for a little while
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:57p, 6/16/22
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Apparently they had to do some work for a little while


Everyone getting busy with real jobs I guess…
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2 edits
TubTub
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9:08p, 6/16/22
"There's always a bull market somewhere"

Somebody please tell me where it is now ...
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Philip J Fry
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9:13p, 6/16/22
AG
Starts tomorrow when options expire.
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Ag CPA
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9:33p, 6/16/22
AG
Remember that the markets are closed on Monday.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:48p, 6/16/22
FJ43 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
Good thought here. If any move up I'm thinking slapped back down. I'm still eyeballing 345-354...ish to dig in.

Wondering If 24' LEAPS these days may be the play.
One month ago I sold XOM 1/19/24 $90 CC's @ $15. During the XOM run a few days ago I know they got as high as $21, or maybe higher but I didn't check the contract high. They are back to just above $15. I thought about buying them back and laying them off in another run up. Maybe I'll just let these rest and sell more later.

My other alternative is to go out to July 1st and ladder XOM CC's for 4 weeks and just repeat the process as one week rolls off. I think I could conservatively average $1 to $1.50 and just keep this going for a few months.

My XOM position has a lot of wind at its back in today's environment and I want to extract as much as possible before exiting a portion later this year or next.

If my BTI would hit $51, I would dance and just hang out on the Politics Board to jack with the Libs. I might even buy stars, but I think I am inviting a ban if I buy stars..
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Triple_Bagger
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10:05p, 6/16/22
This is a good signal that the we hit the bottom. Rally starts tomorrow.


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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:06p, 6/16/22
AG
Guys, I didn't go anywhere, I'm just not actively trading for a few months. I am literally trying to not sit in front of a computer all day so that I can travel, actually use my swimming pool, and just have less stress.

This is a high volatility time and I'm fine with missing it.

This is not a horrible place to add some longs for long term
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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