I closed the short end of my T calendar spread today for $0.35. Now I have (pre-divestiture) $23 1/2024 calls at a net cost of $1.70.
Stock Markets
24,742,559 Views |
233446 Replies |
Last: 2 hrs ago by FishrCoAg
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I am a novice in all this but my prediction (not based on really anything but some simple graphs) is the DOW will fall to 22,500 to 25,000 and S&P to 2750 to 3000 in the next 6-12 months. And then start a really slow climb back to 36-42K over the next 4-7 years. I hope I am wrong and probably am.
Or Putin drops a Nuke and China invades Taiwan and it all goes to crap.
Or Putin drops a Nuke and China invades Taiwan and it all goes to crap.
MSFT at a 25 PE (current) is a steal long term.
That is a 4% return on capital without growth, for a company with a 30 year track record for double digit growth.
Their monopoly in core b2b services makes them inflation resistant - they are price setters. Their biggest competition in web services (Amazon) about to get bogged down and distracted by shrinking retail sales.
Regulators are far to in bed with them to allow them to fail.
If I were forecasting 10 years out, I'd bet on 3-5x.
That is a 4% return on capital without growth, for a company with a 30 year track record for double digit growth.
Their monopoly in core b2b services makes them inflation resistant - they are price setters. Their biggest competition in web services (Amazon) about to get bogged down and distracted by shrinking retail sales.
Regulators are far to in bed with them to allow them to fail.
If I were forecasting 10 years out, I'd bet on 3-5x.
I'm in on some weekly AAPL 139C. I see these working today. I will likely be out by end of day unless these go ITM miraculously.texagbeliever said:
4 squeezes i'm looking at. All 3 minute candle charts
QQQ down & up trend lines are pinching here soon. Update broke up, watching AAPL for direction confirm.
AAPL same as QQQ, AAPL is slightly above the uptrend. Update broke out but needs to break 131 for me to believe direction.
AMZN has a few candles, but is trading at the top. Update broke out with AAPL. 2nd Green candle is looking good.
MSFT trading at the downtrend line but has more time.
AAPL is trying to take 131.texagbeliever said:
4 squeezes i'm looking at. All 3 minute candle charts
QQQ down & up trend lines are pinching here soon. Update broke up, watching AAPL for direction confirm.
AAPL same as QQQ, AAPL is slightly above the uptrend. Update broke out but needs to break 131 for me to believe direction.
AMZN has a few candles, but is trading at the top. Update broke out with AAPL. 2nd Green candle is looking good.
MSFT trading at the downtrend line but has more time.
MSFT needs ~245.2 over next 6-9 minutes. Otherwise it is bouncing in its trend channel.
AAPL and GOOGL have been my only long term hold stocks and I'll keep it at those two for now.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TSLA $650C for $13. Quarter portion size. T&PFMA. Target $17. I'll stop around $12 depending on how SPX and QQQ are looking.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm not Mancini with gnat's ass precision, but from an accuracy standpoint, the 29,439.72 translates to an approximate 3,584 S&P 500 number. Mancini indicating 3625-35 final support then down 100 (...and that's 3525-35 level). So, 3,584, 3,535, 3,525 - all pretty close. TODAY, I'm thinking, there's your bottom and the DOW will not close below 29,439.72. I believe buying support will surface enmasse once those levels are touched. If we see these levels, I think the MSM talking heads will start claiming that the Fed did their job and there is no need for another 75bps move and 50bps is good enough. Currently, the major economic indicators reflect declines from trailing 12 month highs, but we continue to have a growing economy. This means things are good, tough in some areas, but good.
If we reach the levels above and the Fed decides to raise another 75bps in July and 50bps each in the next 2 to 3 meetings, I'd really want to know why because demand destruction would go to another level (choose to interpret that how you want).
If we reach the levels above and the Fed decides to raise another 75bps in July and 50bps each in the next 2 to 3 meetings, I'd really want to know why because demand destruction would go to another level (choose to interpret that how you want).
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bob Knights Liver said:
TSLA $650C for $13. Quarter portion size. T&PFMA. Target $17. I'll stop around $12 depending on how SPX and QQQ are looking.
I'm giving these a little more leeway with QQQ and SPX still above the middle of their 5-min channels, but it's looking likely like a losing trade. Higher uncertainty is why I went small.
4 for 4. Lets see if it goes. AMZN knocking out 104 would be nice.texagbeliever said:AAPL is trying to take 131.texagbeliever said:
4 squeezes i'm looking at. All 3 minute candle charts
QQQ down & up trend lines are pinching here soon. Update broke up, watching AAPL for direction confirm.
AAPL same as QQQ, AAPL is slightly above the uptrend. Update broke out but needs to break 131 for me to believe direction.
AMZN has a few candles, but is trading at the top. Update broke out with AAPL. 2nd Green candle is looking good.
MSFT trading at the downtrend line but has more time.
MSFT needs ~245.2 over next 6-9 minutes. Otherwise it is bouncing in its trend channel.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ok Im out for a loss here. I think that means we're about to rocket. Lower sizing and being more patient is definitely needed. I'll take a look in the last hour to see if there's anything interesting.
I tried to sell SPX put spreads with lower strikes in the 3630-3645 range and upper legs in the 3645-3650 range but they didn't fill. Sitting on hands is likely the best play for me.
I tried to sell SPX put spreads with lower strikes in the 3630-3645 range and upper legs in the 3645-3650 range but they didn't fill. Sitting on hands is likely the best play for me.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I bought two of those TSLA 650C back. It's lagging the SPX and QQQ. If those two run along their upper BBs, this could catch up and hit my original target. It'll be interesting to see what we do here.
Been watching QQQ last 30 minutes or so at lunch. Needs to clear 273 (daily AVWAP) for movement to 274s and 275s.
Could be setting up to do that in next ~15 minutes
Could be setting up to do that in next ~15 minutes
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
CVX-XOM spread is approx $65. Haven't seen this narrow in a long time. It's been at $80-ish for long time. XOM is holding its own regardless of this Administrations attacks. Just remember, XOM's 2Q should be a monster and they are the largest NatGas producer in the U.S. and #2 in the world. It's not July yet, but winter is coming. I am still thinking $120 PPS by EOY, company has $30 billion stock buyback & is 1/12th of company, cash on hand is large....or someone tell me the negative side to this.
BTI, I'm still touting as strong and good dividend generator. I just saw an article about Congress wanting to reduce the amount of nicotine in cigs but don't know the details. Go ahead, reduce it, only means folks will smoke more. More sales = more profit.
BTI, I'm still touting as strong and good dividend generator. I just saw an article about Congress wanting to reduce the amount of nicotine in cigs but don't know the details. Go ahead, reduce it, only means folks will smoke more. More sales = more profit.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I got out again after SPX and QQQ had full 5-min candle completely off the top BB. I'll sit on hands now. Lost ~$600 in those trades.
I feel like Cramer. This is all going according to plan. I haven't updated the support or resistance lines since the last bounce. If we break below 31.80 on UPRO I'll exit. Otherwise, still expecting a good bounce.
Ranger222 said:
Been watching QQQ last 30 minutes or so at lunch. Needs to clear 273 (daily AVWAP) for movement to 274s and 275s.
Could be setting up to do that in next ~15 minutes
here we go
Philip.
I am in this as well with a stop at 31.
I will capture profits aggressively though. I have had too many green trades go red this year being greedy.
Learned some tough lessons.
I am in this as well with a stop at 31.
I will capture profits aggressively though. I have had too many green trades go red this year being greedy.
Learned some tough lessons.
Yeah. I think you pretty much have to sell at the end of a good day in this market. The gap down after hours is brutal.
the negative side would be that Biden continues to attack XOM every few days in the media,Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
CVX-XOM spread is approx $65. Haven't seen this narrow in a long time. It's been at $80-ish for long time. XOM is holding its own regardless of this Administrations attacks. Just remember, XOM's 2Q should be a monster and they are the largest NatGas producer in the U.S. and #2 in the world. It's not July yet, but winter is coming. I am still thinking $120 PPS by EOY, company has $30 billion stock buyback & is 1/12th of company, cash on hand is large....or someone tell me the negative side to this.
BTI, I'm still touting as strong and good dividend generator. I just saw an article about Congress wanting to reduce the amount of nicotine in cigs but don't know the details. Go ahead, reduce it, only means folks will smoke more. More sales = more profit.
that WTI falls as it has done the last few days,
and that eventually there is nowhere to hide and the O&G stocks take it on the chin like every other sector
Did the heavy selling volume 2 weeks back concern you for future price increase?
Seemed like a blow off top. Was like 3-5x normal volume.
Seemed like a blow off top. Was like 3-5x normal volume.
Anyone else not able to sell SPY short through Fidelity today? I can short QQQ but not SPY.
Trying to bottom feed on tqqq here. 10min bband and oversold rsi. Stop at 21.60. Come on bulls
I'm sure I will be proven incorrect, but I recall the day after a rate hike always being a horrible red day the last few times it has happened recently. Why I made that little prediction with the Ron Burgundy ending.Bob Knights Liver said:
After yesterday who would have thought we'd have such a massive drop the very next day? Besides Carlos, of course. This truly is a predatory market!
I'm guessing I'm a broken clock being correct twice a day, but maybe there is something to it...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,947
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Carlo, I meant. I always read the Carlo4 as "Carlos."
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Not concerned. Many people bought XOM sub $50 and wanted to take profit off the table. That is a smart move. The fundamentals indicate XOM is going to a new high. OPEC+ cant increase, Biden is going to beg Saudi, Iran and Venezuela to sell us oil (...those countries should tell FJB, why don't you drill in your own country?...), Americans say they aren't flying this year and are driving to staycations, driving season has started, the gasoline supply boost of blending butane into gasoline starting in March is 2% growth and that process will stop in September, Russian oil isn't coming our way, meaningful increased production in our country is min 6 months away, XOM buying back shares, etc. I may need to temper my enthusiasm for $170 crude back to $150. Otherwise it's full steam ahead for XOM until the world S&D for oil comes back in line in late 2023 or 2024. If XOM increases their share buyback from $30 billion, that will be great. If the DOW30 invites Exxon back in August, that's greater.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Did the heavy selling volume 2 weeks back concern you for future price increase?
Seemed like a blow off top. Was like 3-5x normal volume.
ETA: XOM will be back above $100 in July, IMO.
WEAT is holding up well today. Thanks farmer. It is the only stock that I made a daily gain on.
This is an example of a stock that I would have never looked at if it weren't for this board.
This is an example of a stock that I would have never looked at if it weren't for this board.
#stockmarkets is trending on twitter, lol
maybe we're near a short term bottom
maybe we're near a short term bottom
Price of oil is up and my oil stocks are down today. Couldn't resist. Bought some more fang, Mro, and Oxy.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
June 23rd Energy Secretary will meet with all Big Oil CEO's. Don't care. Libs want to kill fossil fuel because, you know, they fossils.
If anyone believes crude is going below $100, then it's time to exit O&G, I would guess. I don't see <$100 in 2022 or 2023.
If 2Q shows we are shrinking and allowing 2 negative quarters confirm a recession....well, maybe Joe's team will redo that math calculation.
Monday the markets are closed I believe.
I think Wed/Thurs/Fri are green days. Next run up on XOM I will look at ITM 1/2024 Leaps. Not sure I'll execute, but I'll be checking them out.
If anyone believes crude is going below $100, then it's time to exit O&G, I would guess. I don't see <$100 in 2022 or 2023.
If 2Q shows we are shrinking and allowing 2 negative quarters confirm a recession....well, maybe Joe's team will redo that math calculation.
Monday the markets are closed I believe.
I think Wed/Thurs/Fri are green days. Next run up on XOM I will look at ITM 1/2024 Leaps. Not sure I'll execute, but I'll be checking them out.
Bounce tomorrow or another visit from Ben O. Verbich?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Anybody think MM's are going to run Options up tomorrow to reduce the cover price on Puts?
ON may be looking to run. High volume last hour or so.
Next CPI is July 13 where we see if June expectations came down. If we are near 3500 by then I'm going full bore on risk asset calls out to Q1 2023.
I'm covering my SEAS short this week.
I'm covering my SEAS short this week.
Featured Stories
See All
Ags host Buckeyes with an early-season Quad 1 opportunity at stake
by Olin Buchanan
Players to Watch: No. 15 Texas A&M vs. New Mexico State
by Olin Buchanan
8:22
12h ago
1.5k
34:11
7h ago
635
Reed Report: Preparing for Friday's marquee showdown vs. Ohio State
by Luke Evangelist
Bid on Legacy Club tickets to Saturday's Texas A&M vs. NMSU game!
by Texas Aggies United