Trimmed at $3.50 move stop to $3.15BrokeAssAggie said:
picked up TSLA $700 call. $2.98 entry,
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Boom. I love seeing your fundamental thesis contrasting my technical example below it.
I fully recognize that many on this thread are a lot more educated in their approach to trading, and have much more experience. In no way was I trying to bring any of them down or bring myself up.
My only issue was with the one specific poster who for some reason tried to call all of us out trading TQQQ as some kind of idiots. (And I know there's several of us in this thread, not just me.) I think we all know the risks and are willing to accept them.
Personally I really don't think it's that hard to believe QQQ can bounce considerably from here, even if just for another bear market rally.
My only issue was with the one specific poster who for some reason tried to call all of us out trading TQQQ as some kind of idiots. (And I know there's several of us in this thread, not just me.) I think we all know the risks and are willing to accept them.
Personally I really don't think it's that hard to believe QQQ can bounce considerably from here, even if just for another bear market rally.
all out of these.BrokeAssAggie said:Trimmed at $3.50 move stop to $3.15BrokeAssAggie said:
picked up TSLA $700 call. $2.98 entry,
BaylorSpineGuy said:
A number of people on here have said that they would deploy half their capital at 3700 and the remainder at either 3500-3200.
Given the relative facility with which we have arrived at 3700 with so much more rate hikes, etc., to come, is anyone changing their tune?
I'm not saying to call a bottom, but this seems like we are in the early stages. Seems like this may persist for a year or more. And a lot of circulating commentary about a lost decade type of environment similar to 1968-82, where S&P/DJIA made no nominal gains over a nearly 15 yr period.
I am sticking with my numbers. Bought some oil stocks at the previous entry point . Sitting on roughly 30 percent cash waiting for the 3300 range.
It won't come overnight. We will have plenty of entry points over the next 6 months. Will buy SARK on the bounces and trade that fast on the dips. May buy sqqq on the bounces as well. Eating the elephant one bite at a time.
I think we all just truly want to see each other be successful here. I do agree that the index ETFs are a safer bet over the long term. It's just that everyone is at different stages here. Averaging down is an attractive strategy, until you are 6 months into averaging down, and realize that you're in way too deep. Some can handle that. Many can't.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I fully recognize that many on this thread are a lot more educated in their approach to trading, and have much more experience. In no way was I trying to bring any of them down or bring myself up.
I bleed maroon said:Sorry, but you're wrong. It's totally different than blackjack. As I've stated before, solely using charting is a fool's errand in selecting investments, but even if it is used (instead of more thorough due diligence or just investing in a broad index fund), you can expect much better results than playing blackjack. Some simple numbers:Jet Black said:GreasenUSA said:This is a little bit frustrating to read, as there are many in this thread who research technical analysis to study the best possible entries and exits, and take the time to chart and analyze for the benefit of others in the thread. There are others here that provide great fundamental analysis. Regardless, most in this thread are trying to help others add more tools to their toolboxes.Brian Earl Spilner said:Thanks. But fyi, we're all gambling.sts7049 said:you pretended as if your strategy was sound, but nevertheless congrats that your gamble worked so farBrian Earl Spilner said:
Never called a bottom. I wasn't the one who pretended to be in the know and calling everyone else crazy.
And I haven't pretended any of my strategy isn't a risk. In fact I've pointed it out several times. What I said is I'm willing to take the risk to go long at the current levels.
They don't view what they do as gambling. There are also some here that earn their living doing this.
We're all at different points in our trading journeys, but I would bet that many of us have tried the buy long, average down, average down, average down strategy before. It works great, until you blow an account. I did precisely that over a decade ago. Never again.
Maybe it would help others understand better if you outlined your strategy. Just an idea...
It's no different than having a system for black Jack, imo. You maybe able to take some of the risk out but it's still a roll of the dice every time you make a trade.
Blackjack - no matter which bet you select on the board, your expected return is 94.7% of each dollar you bet. You are guaranteed a 5%+ loss if you play long enough.
Stock Market - Over an extended period, efficient markets dictate that you can expect 8-10% total return. Also, on a short term basis, individual stocks go up on 54 out of 100 days. Therefore, if you select an investment by throwing a dart at a dartboard (not too different than using some charting methods), you should come out ahead overall.
To be fair, most people here are using charts to select entry or exit points on stocks they already want to buy (or sell).
Bottom line - there is no better long term "bet" than the stock market, and proper due diligence and careful diversification can ensure you perform better than anywhere else you can put your money.
Investing and trading are two different things. Throwing your money in VTI and not looking at it for 10 years is investing. Buying appl and trying to turn a quick profit in a short period is trading. That is gambling imo.
Gambling has 2 aspects. There is stacked odds black jack. Which isn't the case for the stock market.
There is Fantasy Football. Where through analytics you can craft teams that give you a competitive advantage. Obviously injuries can derail plans but with sufficient research you should come out ahead over enough time. There is some fortune but the odds are in your favor.
The latter "gambling" is quite a bit different then the first one.
There is Fantasy Football. Where through analytics you can craft teams that give you a competitive advantage. Obviously injuries can derail plans but with sufficient research you should come out ahead over enough time. There is some fortune but the odds are in your favor.
The latter "gambling" is quite a bit different then the first one.
Though, I do enjoy knowing that there are traders out there who refuse to see this as anything other than gambling. It's much easier to make money when there is a steady supply of emotional market participants.
GreasenUSA said:
Though, I do enjoy knowing that there are traders out there who refuse to see this as anything other than gambling. It's much easier to make money when there is a steady supply of emotional market participants.
So is today emotional?
going back in...TSLA $700 calls. $2.50 entry.
Yeah, the 6 month "forward looking" markets are pretty reactionary, huh.Jet Black said:
"It's priced in"
Anybody considering going all-in with SQQQ? Surely we're still way off the bottom. Maybe you technical guys can see something different, but given all of the factors, I can't see how the markets all of a sudden find solid footing and steadily rise from here.
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
$SPY 200W MA at 350.
Coming in hot?
Coming in hot?
putting a stop of $2 on these.BrokeAssAggie said:
going back in...TSLA $700 calls. $2.50 entry.
AMD you are clear for takeoff... Just saying.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Very rare to get a "no reaction action" or "an opposite of expected reaction" after a major market input changes. (I think we had a no reaction instance this year, but my memory doesn't log this stuff like it use to) When "it's priced in", beware.Bird Poo said:Yeah, the 6 month "forward looking" markets are pretty reactionary, huh.Jet Black said:
"It's priced in"
Still wrong, amigo.Jet Black said:
Investing and trading are two different things. Throwing your money in VTI and not looking at it for 10 years is investing. Buying appl and trying to turn a quick profit in a short period is trading. That is gambling imo.
Invest one dollar in blackjack today, and invest one dollar in any random listed stock today and sell it the next day. Track your results. Repeat 1000 times. Try it - really. Use AAPL every day, if you must. NOTE: I have not considered transaction costs such as stock commissions or tips to the casino server for your drinks.
Blackjack - you will have $947.37 in one thousand days.
Dig a hole in your backyard and bury the dollar each day. You'll have $1000 (although due to inflation, it will be worth less than that).
Stock Market - you will have at least $1,040.00 in one thousand days, likely a good bit more.
It's not gambling, due to the demonstrated propensity of the market to increase over time (mainly due to efficient markets and a proven stream of profits on deployed capital). These are real people at real companies investing real capital to produce real goods and services, and they are providing you returns on your capital. This is Capitalism 101, not gambling. Embrace it.
South Platte said:
Anybody considering going all-in with SQQQ? Surely we're still way off the bottom. Maybe you technical guys can see something different, but given all of the factors, I can't see how the markets all of a sudden find solid footing and steadily rise from here.
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
In 23 years of investing I have never gone all in on any given stock. I love to diversify.
One time I owned my own business. That was my closest venture to all in.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Okie-dokie,...the market needs a DOW CLOSE at, or below, 29,439.72 to make a declaration that the Bull Market Mega Trend is over. Of course, it needs some follow through after that number for confirmation, but this is the number signal we are looking for to begin the process of a major trend change. An Intra-Day move below this number does not count. It's a Close at, or below, this number. The current Cyclical Bear Market within the Bull Market Mega Trend continues, but a trend change from the current Mega Trend is the key. A line in the sand...a real pull your pants up event.
Maybe MSFT & AAPL will launch off the 246 and 131 respectively here. After a good 30 minutes of rejection.
I went to half time work in the summer of 2016 living on the coast of Israel and volunteering at a horse ranch.Ragoo said:
I don't know if I could take 3 months off. There is a 99% chance I would never return to work.
took a year off from August 2019 to August 2020 and worked part time (quit after I got COVID) living in a small beach front community in Atlit.
planning another six month expedition overseas taking foreign language courses from April 2023 to fall 2023.
you would return to work after you look at your retirement and stock accounts and calculate how much money you will need if you live 30 years.
are you claiming that it would be an "official" bear market trend if the dow closes at or below 29,439?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Okie-dokie,...the market needs a DOW CLOSE at, or below, 29,439.72 to make a declaration that the Bull Market Mega Trend is over. Of course, it needs some follow through after that number for confirmation, but this is the number signal we are looking for to begin the process of a major trend change. An Intra-Day move below this number does not count. It's a Close at, or below, this number. The current Cyclical Bear Market within the Bull Market Mega Trend continues, but a trend change from the current Mega Trend is the key. A line in the sand...a real pull your pants up event.
so if it closes at 29,440 it's not a bear market?
what a relief
So what are you buying for the long term stuff here?
Agreed- no way in a million years would I ever do what the OP is proposing to go all in on ANY investment.Tumble Weed said:South Platte said:
Anybody considering going all-in with SQQQ? Surely we're still way off the bottom. Maybe you technical guys can see something different, but given all of the factors, I can't see how the markets all of a sudden find solid footing and steadily rise from here.
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
In 23 years of investing I have never gone all in on any given stock. I love to diversify.
One time I owned my own business. That was my closest venture to all in.
one should have multiple equities, crypto, real estate, cash, gold, ammo, sector funds, bond funds, art. I'm over diversified in 3 separate stock/401K brokerages
it was interesting to see one of the millenials on a famous youtube channel admit they got margin called for trying to leverage ETH yesterday.
Ciscogougler08 said:
So what are you buying for the long term stuff here?
MSFT
Apple
Amazon
Oxy
Exxon
ARKK
Wynn
Target
Walmart
Pfizer
ONEQ
Canadian Natural Resources
I'm investing for the next 30 years in my private brokerage so buying everything over the last 5 months. bottom feeding SNAP, Tattoed Chef, Oatly, Paypal
Sorry, I chose my words very poorly. I'm very diversified and I'll stay that way. I was asking about taking a decent portion of net worth, say 5%, and betting on a continued fall of the NASDAQ.Tumble Weed said:South Platte said:
Anybody considering going all-in with SQQQ? Surely we're still way off the bottom. Maybe you technical guys can see something different, but given all of the factors, I can't see how the markets all of a sudden find solid footing and steadily rise from here.
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
In 23 years of investing I have never gone all in on any given stock. I love to diversify.
One time I owned my own business. That was my closest venture to all in.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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After yesterday who would have thought we'd have such a massive drop the very next day? Besides Carlos, of course. This truly is a predatory market!
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Maybe re-read..LMCane said:are you claiming that it would be an "official" bear market trend if the dow closes at or below 29,439?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Okie-dokie,...the market needs a DOW CLOSE at, or below, 29,439.72 to make a declaration that the Bull Market Mega Trend is over. Of course, it needs some follow through after that number for confirmation, but this is the number signal we are looking for to begin the process of a major trend change. An Intra-Day move below this number does not count. It's a Close at, or below, this number. The current Cyclical Bear Market within the Bull Market Mega Trend continues, but a trend change from the current Mega Trend is the key. A line in the sand...a real pull your pants up event.
so if it closes at 29,440 it's not a bear market?
what a relief
You can have Cyclical Bear Markets within a Bull Market Mega Trend - and - you can have Cyclical Bull Markets within a Bear Market Mega Trend. The Mega Trend has not changed, yet - no matter how much money your portfolio has lost.
*sarc noted
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AG
Mancini sounds less optimistic than usual
1st downside target today in #ES_F was 3670 zone and just hit & basing here. Spot for relief pop but in this market, all longs are knife catches *until bulls can clear a resistance to squeeze* now 3720, 3703 en route.
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) June 16, 2022
Fail here we see 3625-35, final support for 100 points down https://t.co/83TZhWnLLi
Interesting info--thanks! Does this apply to today's close only, or over the next several weeks/months?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Okie-dokie,...the market needs a DOW CLOSE at, or below, 29,439.72 to make a declaration that the Bull Market Mega Trend is over. Of course, it needs some follow through after that number for confirmation, but this is the number signal we are looking for to begin the process of a major trend change. An Intra-Day move below this number does not count. It's a Close at, or below, this number. The current Cyclical Bear Market within the Bull Market Mega Trend continues, but a trend change from the current Mega Trend is the key. A line in the sand...a real pull your pants up event.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Great question and I should have covered it in the original paragraph.Bird Poo said:Interesting info--thanks! Does this apply to today's close only, or over the next several weeks/months?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Okie-dokie,...the market needs a DOW CLOSE at, or below, 29,439.72 to make a declaration that the Bull Market Mega Trend is over. Of course, it needs some follow through after that number for confirmation, but this is the number signal we are looking for to begin the process of a major trend change. An Intra-Day move below this number does not count. It's a Close at, or below, this number. The current Cyclical Bear Market within the Bull Market Mega Trend continues, but a trend change from the current Mega Trend is the key. A line in the sand...a real pull your pants up event.
This 29,439.72 number applies to today, tomorrow and any day going forward.
The only way that 29,439.72 number would change is if the DOW rallied higher than the January 4, 2022 CLOSE of 36,799.65 and CLOSED above 36,799.65. You would then take 80% of the new all-time Closing High and the new low number is established that would be needed to break the Mega Trend on a move down.
Hope that was clear.
I have been trading sqqq for the last several months in a retirement account. As long as the daily close stays below the 10 EMA, I am playing the downtrend. I try to buy enough to hedge my "growth" mutual funds in my work 401k that I cannot actively trade. My goal is to be at least neutral, so that if my 401k goes down, my sqqq goes up the same amount or more. It makes the red days not hurt when I am properly hedged with sqqq. I will play tqqq for a short bounce. I am worried this can go on a lot longer, but I certainly don't know. If we don't get a v bottom, then I am watching for daily double bottoms for long entries with my stops at those levels. My current contributions to my employer 401k is all going to a cash account and just waiting for a bottom.South Platte said:Sorry, I chose my words very poorly. I'm very diversified and I'll stay that way. I was asking about taking a decent portion of net worth, say 5%, and betting on a continued fall of the NASDAQ.Tumble Weed said:South Platte said:
Anybody considering going all-in with SQQQ? Surely we're still way off the bottom. Maybe you technical guys can see something different, but given all of the factors, I can't see how the markets all of a sudden find solid footing and steadily rise from here.
Stocks won't rise until the Fed cuts interest rates, right? And how in the hell can that happen within the next 12 months?
In 23 years of investing I have never gone all in on any given stock. I love to diversify.
One time I owned my own business. That was my closest venture to all in.
I'm just surprised that we can't even get a proper bounce. Yesterday's mini rally didn't even close the gap between Friday and Monday.Bob Knights Liver said:
After yesterday who would have thought we'd have such a massive drop the very next day? Besides Carlos, of course. This truly is a predatory market!
4 squeezes i'm looking at. All 3 minute candle charts
QQQ down & up trend lines are pinching here soon. Update broke up, watching AAPL for direction confirm.
AAPL same as QQQ, AAPL is slightly above the uptrend. Update broke out but needs to break 131 for me to believe direction.
AMZN has a few candles, but is trading at the top. Update broke out with AAPL. 2nd Green candle is looking good.
MSFT trading at the downtrend line but has more time.
QQQ down & up trend lines are pinching here soon. Update broke up, watching AAPL for direction confirm.
AAPL same as QQQ, AAPL is slightly above the uptrend. Update broke out but needs to break 131 for me to believe direction.
AMZN has a few candles, but is trading at the top. Update broke out with AAPL. 2nd Green candle is looking good.
MSFT trading at the downtrend line but has more time.
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