AMX looks almost too obvious.
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Last: 2 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Idaho was a well kept secret until the Californians started moving in a few years ago.
I know. This has been on my list since I was in my early 20s. My brother and his in laws co-own 2 airbnbs in Salmon. He struck gold. Got them about 3-4 years ago before the major rush of late.
Wtf happened, it's a repeat of a month ago
30K announces his brief departure and the market proceeds to absolutely puke. Futures down bigly this morning. Be careful folks!
This is a little bit frustrating to read, as there are many in this thread who research technical analysis to study the best possible entries and exits, and take the time to chart and analyze for the benefit of others in the thread. There are others here that provide great fundamental analysis. Regardless, most in this thread are trying to help others add more tools to their toolboxes.Brian Earl Spilner said:Thanks. But fyi, we're all gambling.sts7049 said:you pretended as if your strategy was sound, but nevertheless congrats that your gamble worked so farBrian Earl Spilner said:
Never called a bottom. I wasn't the one who pretended to be in the know and calling everyone else crazy.
And I haven't pretended any of my strategy isn't a risk. In fact I've pointed it out several times. What I said is I'm willing to take the risk to go long at the current levels.
They don't view what they do as gambling. There are also some here that earn their living doing this.
We're all at different points in our trading journeys, but I would bet that many of us have tried the buy long, average down, average down, average down strategy before. It works great, until you blow an account. I did precisely that over a decade ago. Never again.
Maybe it would help others understand better if you outlined your strategy. Just an idea...
A number of people on here have said that they would deploy half their capital at 3700 and the remainder at either 3500-3200.
Given the relative facility with which we have arrived at 3700 with so much more rate hikes, etc., to come, is anyone changing their tune?
I'm not saying to call a bottom, but this seems like we are in the early stages. Seems like this may persist for a year or more. And a lot of circulating commentary about a lost decade type of environment similar to 1968-82, where S&P/DJIA made no nominal gains over a nearly 15 yr period.
Given the relative facility with which we have arrived at 3700 with so much more rate hikes, etc., to come, is anyone changing their tune?
I'm not saying to call a bottom, but this seems like we are in the early stages. Seems like this may persist for a year or more. And a lot of circulating commentary about a lost decade type of environment similar to 1968-82, where S&P/DJIA made no nominal gains over a nearly 15 yr period.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Dont forget, lots of expirations this week, MOPEX, and the like. There's always something..
I deployed about half of my cash yesterday as posted in 5 stocks. I'm usually a bit early so not surprised that I didn't pick the bottom. The rest will go in either <SPX 3400 or once it looks like we've bottomed and consolidated higher.BaylorSpineGuy said:
A number of people on here have said that they would deploy half their capital at 3700 and the remainder at either 3500-3200.
Given the relative facility with which we have arrived at 3700 with so much more rate hikes, etc., to come, is anyone changing their tune?
I'm not saying to call a bottom, but this seems like we are in the early stages. Seems like this may persist for a year or more. And a lot of circulating commentary about a lost decade type of environment similar to 1968-82, where S&P/DJIA made no nominal gains over a nearly 15 yr period.
I'm also of the opinion that growth/tech will bottom well ahead of everything else. Some of those stocks have already started basing and making higher lows and higher highs. We've been trained over the past few years to look for deep V's but that isn't all that common if you follow long term stage analysis investing.
Watch out for a bloody red open just below previous lows and then a red to green day. Common trick to F retail. Massive short squeeze will probably come soon. Can't wait to sell covered calls on all my new babies.
The other route is a capitulation flush down to next support around 3500-3600. I'd handicap this as about a 1/3 chance. Very unlikely it is anything other than flush or rip. Tough market to read though.
June closing at above or below 3850 in a couple weeks will be telling for the medium term. If 3700 holds this week, shooter's chance at a bear market rally back to 4250 or so to get everyone bullish again.
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
ALB is currently far along in a Wyckoff distribution pattern. No idea how to trade but good money for someone out there.
Believe someone on here is a big ALB person.
Looks like it's headed much lower. Am I crazy?
Believe someone on here is a big ALB person.
Looks like it's headed much lower. Am I crazy?
lots of blood so far in MES
I should also clarify that my personal situation lends itself to being very aggressive, and if it keeps going down, I have money coming in to DCA monthly for as long as it takes, whether that is months or years.
So please don't blindly follow my approach or anyone else's. We're all in different situations that create different risk tolerance scenarios.
That was my disclaimer and remember to mind the sig....
So please don't blindly follow my approach or anyone else's. We're all in different situations that create different risk tolerance scenarios.
That was my disclaimer and remember to mind the sig....
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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59 South said:
Watch out for a bloody red open just below previous lows and then a red to green day. Common trick to F retail.
The other route is a capitulation flush down to next support around 3500-3600.
Spot on, govn'a. When a saw the markets this morning I said to me self I says, "I know Asia is Barney rubble, but if you take a butcher's hook at max pain, it's still north of 4000. It doesn't seem unlikely for us moving back up and trading in that 3750-3800 range again by this afternoon, mate."
So we are either going up or down today. Got it
Carlo4 said:
Today will be massive. Tomorrow will sell off massively right?
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AG
I read this like lloyd Christmas "austria, eh? Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!"
Bob Knights Liver said:59 South said:
Watch out for a bloody red open just below previous lows and then a red to green day. Common trick to F retail.
The other route is a capitulation flush down to next support around 3500-3600.
Spot on, govn'a. When a saw the markets this morning I said to me self I says, "I know Asia is Barney rubble, but if you take a butcher's hook at max pain, it's still north of 4000. It doesn't seem unlikely for us moving back up and trading in that 3750-3800 range again by this afternoon, mate."
GreasenUSA said:
We're all at different points in our trading journeys, but I would bet that many of us have tried the buy long, average down, average down, average down strategy before. It works great, until you blow an account. I did precisely that over a decade ago. Never again.
Maybe it would help others understand better if you outlined your strategy. Just an idea...
I've been doing that the last month or so with individual
stocks. And my results are basically as you described.
So now I'm only going long on a small handful of stocks with a minor 15% of my total. These stocks are AFRM, SOFI and a very small amount on FUBO(I like their product and if the gaming works out it will be big imo)
The other 85% I'm going long on are XBI and QQQ. As long as I'm willing to give it years...I don't see how I don't make decent money on these 2 ETFs
I try to stay disciplined when averaging down longs during times like these. Only the focusing on shares of SPY, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, etc. Stocks I plan on holding forever.
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We are still at a point where IV is high enough that 0dte or short term options have jacked premiums. If day trading this is where I like to go further ITM. Otherwise, even with underlying prices moving your direction theta decay can be big enough to offset your profits.
DJIA went under 30K. FJB and democrats!
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I pushed a bunch of pretax money back into indexes end of day Tuesday. I felt pretty about that yesterday. I'll probably give it until Monday to show me a direction on those before I pull that back out of equities.
"It's priced in"
GreasenUSA said:This is a little bit frustrating to read, as there are many in this thread who research technical analysis to study the best possible entries and exits, and take the time to chart and analyze for the benefit of others in the thread. There are others here that provide great fundamental analysis. Regardless, most in this thread are trying to help others add more tools to their toolboxes.Brian Earl Spilner said:Thanks. But fyi, we're all gambling.sts7049 said:you pretended as if your strategy was sound, but nevertheless congrats that your gamble worked so farBrian Earl Spilner said:
Never called a bottom. I wasn't the one who pretended to be in the know and calling everyone else crazy.
And I haven't pretended any of my strategy isn't a risk. In fact I've pointed it out several times. What I said is I'm willing to take the risk to go long at the current levels.
They don't view what they do as gambling. There are also some here that earn their living doing this.
We're all at different points in our trading journeys, but I would bet that many of us have tried the buy long, average down, average down, average down strategy before. It works great, until you blow an account. I did precisely that over a decade ago. Never again.
Maybe it would help others understand better if you outlined your strategy. Just an idea...
It's no different than having a system for black Jack, imo. You maybe able to take some of the risk out but it's still a roll of the dice every time you make a trade.
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Mancini levels looking juicy today
Have a conditional order to buy a spy call for tomorrow at 3670, I'll place another for the 3625 if we get there. Opex fireworks coming
Have a conditional order to buy a spy call for tomorrow at 3670, I'll place another for the 3625 if we get there. Opex fireworks coming
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8:45 SPX and QQQ closed below their opening prices. TSLA closed above. Generally when that's happened we have a tricky opening hour. I'm biased to the upside, but I'm going to hold off. If I were going long, the TSLA 6/17 $660C for $22 look interesting. I'll come back and see if we get to $40 this morning, but I won't risk any money on it.
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Selling put spreads at the open yesterday and call spreads near the close would have worked out great. I didn't have enough conviction to do it - it would have just been gambling.
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Wow tight opening range. Pennant forming? Bear flag even? Guess we'll know in about 15 minutes
XOM filled today at $91.75
Filled yesterday at $94.50
Filled yesterday at $94.50
ProgN said:Bob Knights Liver said:59 South said:
Watch out for a bloody red open just below previous lows and then a red to green day. Common trick to F retail.
The other route is a capitulation flush down to next support around 3500-3600.
Spot on, govn'a. When a saw the markets this morning I said to me self I says, "I know Asia is Barney rubble, but if you take a butcher's hook at max pain, it's still north of 4000. It doesn't seem unlikely for us moving back up and trading in that 3750-3800 range again by this afternoon, mate."
Lol I read that post in Tommy's voice !!
Classic
Yep, not buying anything, but to me this seems like a slow climb to green (or slightly red) day.
Seems like it's climbing in the wrong direction
picked up TSLA $700 call. $2.98 entry,
Sorry, but you're wrong. It's totally different than blackjack. As I've stated before, solely using charting is a fool's errand in selecting investments, but even if it is used (instead of more thorough due diligence or just investing in a broad index fund), you can expect much better results than playing blackjack. Some simple numbers:Jet Black said:GreasenUSA said:This is a little bit frustrating to read, as there are many in this thread who research technical analysis to study the best possible entries and exits, and take the time to chart and analyze for the benefit of others in the thread. There are others here that provide great fundamental analysis. Regardless, most in this thread are trying to help others add more tools to their toolboxes.Brian Earl Spilner said:Thanks. But fyi, we're all gambling.sts7049 said:you pretended as if your strategy was sound, but nevertheless congrats that your gamble worked so farBrian Earl Spilner said:
Never called a bottom. I wasn't the one who pretended to be in the know and calling everyone else crazy.
And I haven't pretended any of my strategy isn't a risk. In fact I've pointed it out several times. What I said is I'm willing to take the risk to go long at the current levels.
They don't view what they do as gambling. There are also some here that earn their living doing this.
We're all at different points in our trading journeys, but I would bet that many of us have tried the buy long, average down, average down, average down strategy before. It works great, until you blow an account. I did precisely that over a decade ago. Never again.
Maybe it would help others understand better if you outlined your strategy. Just an idea...
It's no different than having a system for black Jack, imo. You maybe able to take some of the risk out but it's still a roll of the dice every time you make a trade.
Blackjack - no matter which bet you select on the board, your expected return is 94.7% of each dollar you bet. You are guaranteed a 5%+ loss if you play long enough.
Stock Market - Over an extended period, efficient markets dictate that you can expect 8-10% total return. Also, on a short term basis, individual stocks go up on 54 out of 100 days. Therefore, if you select an investment by throwing a dart at a dartboard (not too different than using some charting methods), you should come out ahead overall.
To be fair, most people here are using charts to select entry or exit points on stocks they already want to buy (or sell).
Bottom line - there is no better long term "bet" than the stock market, and proper due diligence and careful diversification can ensure you perform better than anywhere else you can put your money.
Unless I'm unaware of how successful people can be playing blackjack in a casino, I just don't see it this way. I do understand this mindset from someone who is new to trading, but if you take time (usually years) to learn technical analysis, screen time with charting, the ebb and flow of the market, and when to sit on your hands, you can be successful as a trader. The final keys being risk management and your emotions.Jet Black said:
It's no different than having a system for black Jack, imo. You maybe able to take some of the risk out but it's still a roll of the dice every time you make a trade.
Here's a recent example on QQQ:
I drew support and resistance lines at the bottom and top of the range we sat in for 2 weeks on QQQ. Break above, and we enter new longs (while being aware of what the trend has been). Break below, and we short, or cut any longs we might be in. Can use the breakout/breakdown levels as your stop, for a breakeven trade. This also can set a direction to help the bias for daytrading subsequent days.
Here's an example today on AMZN:
We traded in a tight range for the first 30 minutes of the day. The top was 104.58. The bottom was 103.35. Knowing the market we are in, you can make a decision if you'd like to enter above a break of the opening range high, or below a break of the opening range low. So far, it broke down below and gave half a point.
These are fairly simple, Darvas Box trading examples, but the good part is that this doesn't have to be complicated.
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