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Jet Black
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 10:26a, 6/14/22
GreasenUSA said:
I'm very surprised we can't get a rally. The market doesn't generally go down this fast this far without some sort of a real bounce.

We're also sitting on -3 ATR for S&P.


Holding pattern until fed speaks?
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to Jet Black • 10:30a, 6/14/22
AG
Jet Black said:
GreasenUSA said:
I'm very surprised we can't get a rally. The market doesn't generally go down this fast this far without some sort of a real bounce.

We're also sitting on -3 ATR for S&P.


Holding pattern until fed speaks?
That's likely a good bet. But since Wednesday, we've gone straight down with 2 pretty sizable daily gaps. That usually doesn't happen this much without seeing a relief bounce.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 10:31a, 6/14/22
AG
GreasenUSA said:
I'm very surprised we can't get a rally. The market doesn't generally go down this fast this far without some sort of a real bounce.

We're also sitting on -3 ATR for S&P.


The fear index is very high.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:37a, 6/14/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Decided to roll my XOM CC's 6/10 $99's to 6/17 $102's at even money.

What a day! The spanking continues.

Trying to roll the 6/10 $105's to 6/17 at $0.45 = * FILLED *
Trying to roll the 6/10 $107's to 6/17 at $0.19 = * FILLED *
The 6/10 $111's I'm letting expire
Completed.

I think I'm calling it a day.

BTHOL!
ESPN 7:30pm
Orders in to Buy to Close the CC's from Friday.
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $105's at $0.06 = * FILLED @ $0.08 *
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $107's at $0.03 = * FILLED @ $0.04 *
Completed
Also, yesterday, Bought To Close 6/17's $102's at $0.27 (previous Roll from 6/10 to 6/17 at even money)

Today:
Sold 6/17 $102's at $0.35 = * FILLED *

Order to Sell Sold 6/17 $105's at $0.15 = * FILLED *
Updated
Completed.

And,....crude showing $123.41 / +$2.48
Trying to Buy To Close the XOM CC's 6/17 $102's at $0.24 - I got in these early today. XOM popped about $0.70 a share right after I placed the order and I got filled. Wasn't expecting that.. That was a "hello" moment. Now, if the market wants to ride down, or up, ahead of Powell, I'm okay with it. I'm where I want to be if I can't trade out of it.

The XOM 6/17 $105's and the CVX 6/17 $185's I'm leaving alone for now.

Checking out. You folks make lots of money. See y'all later.

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irish pete ag06
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10:39a, 6/14/22
AG
Been more busy with my new summer side gig, but going to probably switch to only trading SQQQ/TQQQ and SH/UPRO instead of SPY/QQQ options (outside of the occasional scalp that I plan to only allow one 5 minute bar to happen)

This will obviously limit my upside, but it should help limit my downside as well.

I have a my trademarked plankton sized cash account, the bad thing about trading these is T+2 settlement whereas options are T+1.

I am going to just cut my account in half and that will be my "account size" for the day and that should help to keep me being able to day trade.

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:40a, 6/14/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
In honor and remembrance of Irish _2.0

CNN Fear & Greed Index = 19 16 (Extreme Fear)
Updated
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Philip J Fry
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10:50a, 6/14/22
AG
Is dread the same as fear?
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Jet Black
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11:37a, 6/14/22
So tomorrow

.50 - negative
.75 - positive
1 - negative

???
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 11:48a, 6/14/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Decided to roll my XOM CC's 6/10 $99's to 6/17 $102's at even money.

What a day! The spanking continues.

Trying to roll the 6/10 $105's to 6/17 at $0.45 = * FILLED *
Trying to roll the 6/10 $107's to 6/17 at $0.19 = * FILLED *
The 6/10 $111's I'm letting expire
Completed.

I think I'm calling it a day.

BTHOL!
ESPN 7:30pm
Orders in to Buy to Close the CC's from Friday.
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $105's at $0.06 = * FILLED @ $0.08 *
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $107's at $0.03 = * FILLED @ $0.04 *
Completed
Also, yesterday, Bought To Close 6/17's $102's at $0.27 (previous Roll from 6/10 to 6/17 at even money)

Today:
Sold 6/17 $102's at $0.35 = * FILLED *

Order to Sell Sold 6/17 $105's at $0.15 = * FILLED *
Updated
Completed.

And,....crude showing $123.41 / +$2.48
Trying to Buy To Close the XOM CC's 6/17 $102's at $0.24 - I got in these early today. XOM popped about $0.70 a share right after I placed the order and I got filled. Wasn't expecting that.. That was a "hello" moment. Now, if the market wants to ride down, or up, ahead of Powell, I'm okay with it. I'm where I want to be if I can't trade out of it.

The XOM 6/17 $105's and the CVX 6/17 $185's I'm leaving alone for now.

Checking out. You folks make lots of money. See y'all later.

Bought To Close XOM CC's 6/17 $102's at $0.24 = * FILLED * (netted $0.10)

My appointment got delayed, Hope to be here through the close. Maybe I can resell these again.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:49a, 6/14/22
AG
Looks like solid support for TQQQ at $23 so far.
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Txducker
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 12:06p, 6/14/22
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
Been more busy with my new summer side gig, but going to probably switch to only trading SQQQ/TQQQ and SH/UPRO instead of SPY/QQQ options (outside of the occasional scalp that I plan to only allow one 5 minute bar to happen)

This will obviously limit my upside, but it should help limit my downside as well.

I have a my trademarked plankton sized cash account, the bad thing about trading these is T+2 settlement whereas options are T+1.

I am going to just cut my account in half and that will be my "account size" for the day and that should help to keep me being able to day trade.

I am moving the same direction for day/swing trading. I will still trade options but will be using leveraged etf's more. I have fewer and smaller losses with leveraged etf's than options. The time decay on options makes it riskier for me. I use hard stops on both. Sideways price action can hurt you on options with 0 DTE. I am also cash account only, and the settlement period is a bonus for options. My percent returns are better with options, but I have greater risk of time working against me.
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In reply to Jet Black • 12:19p, 6/14/22
Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Jet Black • 12:22p, 6/14/22
Jet Black said:
So tomorrow

.50 - negative positive
.75 - positive negative
1 - negative

???
If you're referring to equities

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wanderer
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12:48p, 6/14/22
bulls got swatted down 20min ago at exactly the intraday channel trendline.
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FJ43
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1:18p, 6/14/22
What did y'all do?

Went on a few days escape with Mrs FJ and y'all sold everything off.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 1:20p, 6/14/22
FJ43 said:
What did y'all do?

Went on a few days escape with Mrs FJ and y'all sold everything off.
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cptthunder
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In reply to cptthunder • 1:37p, 6/14/22
cptthunder said:
Picked up some more $SWN just now @ $8.15 with the plan to sell @ $9 to get my cost average below the $9 point
Good bounce off $8 with sustained increased volume and I still dont see NatGas dropping significantly and SWN is printing money right now
This isnt aging well so far....
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TecRecAg
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1:51p, 6/14/22
AG
i may not open my brokerage account app until like 2026
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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:04p, 6/14/22
AG
Am I dumb for even considering moving my entire SPY position into UPRO in my Roth account?
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Carlo4
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 2:05p, 6/14/22
AG
Triple_Bagger said:
Jet Black said:
So tomorrow

.50 - negative positive
.75 - positive negative
1 - negative

???
If you're referring to equities



I have a gut it will be 0.5 just because everyone is talking 0.75. Unexpected good news everything up 3-4% in one day.
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Carlo4
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In reply to 59 South • 2:07p, 6/14/22
AG
59 South said:
Philip J Fry said:
wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.


What's your definition of long?


Seriously no clever inappropriate responses to this? This thread is great but needs a humor upgrade.



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Jet Black
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In reply to Carlo4 • 2:15p, 6/14/22
Carlo4 said:
Triple_Bagger said:
Jet Black said:
So tomorrow

.50 - negative positive
.75 - positive negative
1 - negative

???
If you're referring to equities



I have a gut it will be 0.5 just because everyone is talking 0.75. Unexpected good news everything up 3-4% in one day.


After the recent cpi numbers .5 won't be seen as enough. Tank.
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La Bamba
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2:23p, 6/14/22
AG
I think it's almost certainly going to be 0.75
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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:41p, 6/14/22
AG
Call me optimistic but I think it HAS to rocket after Powell, after a flash dip as usual.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:04p, 6/14/22
AG
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austinAG90
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3:09p, 6/14/22
AG
Rates Have Backed Up to our Support Levels..Did Not Take Long... No Tuesday Turn

The Bond market is sending a severe message to the Fed that they have to go 75 tomorrow or the markets have lost confidence in the Fed... Rates have backed up to our support levels of 3.625 5 years and 3.50 10 years...2 years 3.50 is not quite there... Equities have given back all of their meager gains and will now look to close down 1% in S+P, continuing the bear market debacle... Could the Fed somehow pull a rabbit out of their hat tomorrow to calm markets?... Not sure... Question is what would be better 50 basis with a commitment to continue to raise at 50 to 75 levels in the future of just do 75 and continue to react to numbers... Clearly the Fed has made some dumb mistakes... Not ending QE a long time ago, not recognizing inflation with their intransigence stance when they could have gotten in front of inflation last year, and their change of how to react to markets and numbers... The New Fed strategy has been a complete failure... Look for our three scenarios tomorrow morning...
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AgOutsideAustin
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3:09p, 6/14/22
AG
Got a big ol bite of VTI around 3735 on S&P , next big ol bite around 3550
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Jet Black • 3:21p, 6/14/22
AG
Jet Black said:
Carlo4 said:
Triple_Bagger said:
Jet Black said:
So tomorrow

.50 - negative positive
.75 - positive negative
1 - negative

???
If you're referring to equities



I have a gut it will be 0.5 just because everyone is talking 0.75. Unexpected good news everything up 3-4% in one day.


After the recent cpi numbers .5 won't be seen as enough. Tank.
the numbers don't matter one bit, this is all planned ahead of time. Sell off before CPI, chop for a day or 2, then short squeeze on CPI data (good or bad).
Market will do what most don't expect (especially to retail put buyers.)
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to austinAG90 • 3:23p, 6/14/22
I agree. I think we see at least a little bounce by Thursday close. Max pain is still >$4100, I believe.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 3:43p, 6/14/22
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Am I dumb for even considering moving my entire SPY position into UPRO in my Roth account?


Well this might be ill advised but screw it. Only need a 30% bounce (last Thursday) to make back all the value lost this year. It's worth the risk for me, even if I'm not catching the bottom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 3:50p, 6/14/22
Just me, but I'd divide it in tranches of 10% to 25% each. That way moving in or out of indexes or levered indexes doesn't have to be a binary decision point. Find a balance that you'd feel okay, or equally pissed or whatever, whether the market goes up or down. Then mentally start with that point and decide if you want to share bearish or bullish and move one tranche at a time. At least that's what I use as a form of risk control.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 3:53p, 6/14/22
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Am I dumb for even considering moving my entire SPY position into UPRO in my Roth account?


Well this might be ill advised but screw it. Only need a 30% bounce (last Thursday) to make back all the value lost this year. It's worth the risk for me, even if I'm not catching the bottom.
0.93% expense ratio on that one. Good upside, however!
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Jet Black
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 5:08p, 6/14/22
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Call me pessimistic but I think it HAS to dump after Powell, after a flash pop as usual.


Could just as easily be this imo. I do prefer yours.
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 6:02p, 6/14/22
ProgN said:
FJ43 said:
What did y'all do?

Went on a few days escape with Mrs FJ and y'all sold everything off.
Sheesh I guess that take a few days off takes exponentially to recover is true.

If you bet to the downside with cheap puts. Congrats! Man those paid.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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irish pete ag06
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6:06p, 6/14/22
AG
I'm in TQQQ, currently down -1.84%

Most of this was a QQQ call late in the day

Entered at the first arrow, should have waited for the 2nd arrow. Exited at the 3rd

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