Rumors that MBS went no bid on Friday. I think this has been posted in a few places now https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news

Lake08 said:

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I think if there is ANY positive news the market bounces 5-7% in short order.

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Anyone believing any positive news about the economy is delusional at this point. We're headed for a Depression at best and a total collapse of the global economy at worst. We're in uncharted waters now.

BAP Enthusiast said:

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Lake08 said:

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I think if there is ANY positive news the market bounces 5-7% in short order.

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Anyone believing any positive news about the economy is delusional at this point. We're headed for a Depression at best and a total collapse of the global economy at worst. We're in uncharted waters now.

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Give me a break. Based on what?

BAP Enthusiast said:

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Lake08 said:

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I think if there is ANY positive news the market bounces 5-7% in short order.

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Anyone believing any positive news about the economy is delusional at this point. We're headed for a Depression at best and a total collapse of the global economy at worst. We're in uncharted waters now.

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I'd say that's quite a reach…

Tomorrow is going to be a dark day for the stock market. Probably one that we remember for a long time. Thanks Biden and concerned moderates here who voted for him

McKinney Ag69 said:

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Tomorrow is going to be a dark day for the stock market. Probably one that we remember for a long time. Thanks Biden and concerned moderates here who voted for him

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This would have happened regardless of who the president is.

Your sentiment tells me we may get some good rallying going. A bank isn't going to collapse tomorrow, and there are circuit breakers. But you know what? I'm going to make money tomorrow regardless.

I think you may have just doxxed Admin Errors, lol

Feels like everyone will get sucked in to puts and then this thing reverses for sharp bounce/ Short term rally

Another Ugly Risk Off Day....Fed In a Pickle ..Fight Inflation Versus Recession.

The world is in a tough situation with Central Banks all Hawkish except for China and Japan. Overnight the S+P has hit and has gone into Bear Territory... IT IS NOW A BEAR MARKET.. Which is no surprise if you follow the Nasdaq or the sinking Ark of Cathie Woods... Crypto, another risk asset, not a currency, is getting crushed AGAIN...

Crypto ...Bitcoin is down 14% , or 3800 bucks to 23,500 and falling fast... Other currencies are down 15-20%... CRYPTO IS COLLAPSING... MARGIN CALLS AND FEAR DOMINATING..

Rates... Another ugly situation unless you are short with flatterers on... 2/10 went inverted briefly this morning as 2 years hit 3.25, now back at 3.20... Our new support is 3.31, and it could be there in minutes as Fed rate increase expectations soar along with the terminal rate... After that it could be 3.75... Similar to 5 years... But after getting inverted this morning the 2/10 have come back to positive 6.. 5/30 got to minus 15, which is strong support, held and is now at -12... 10 years hit 3.26 this morning, we still have 3.375 as support.. Glad we did not go with those that said the high yields of the year are in...

We got part of this move correct... We said last Wednesday live, and earlier in this blog on Monday, that the Thursday and Friday of last week would be ugly... First the ECB, where they are now building 150-200 basis of tightening into this year, and then a Sticky CPI which turned out to be much worse... 2 years backed up 25 basis Friday alone and another 15 today, which makes it higher by 65 basis for the two weeks of June... 10 year for reference is back 35...

Fed is in a tough spot... Most expect them to be very Hawkish Wednesday when they announce and Powell gives his presser... But they are in a pickle, as if they raise rates too far, they will spiral the economy into recession, which will crush the jobs markets, no matter how many jolts jobs there are out there... If they do not do enough, then their credibility will be questioned as inflation fighters... They really blew it by not reacting last year... But that is history...

Fed expectation... We still see them moving 50 on Wednesday... Barclays and Jefferies are calling for a 75 basis move... They would send a PANIC REACTION through the markets... September is no longer a 25 -50 call, but a 50-75 expectation... But remember we have three CPI numbers out between then and now... And the Fed can't control gas prices or food prices... With Michigan Sentiment plunging on Friday to the lowest levels ever seen, one can see how gas prices are affecting those at the lower end of the economic spectrum... Raising rates won't resolve that...

Will inflation slow down on its own?... Yes we think so... The recent prices are lagging in the consumer end... Target has shown that their prices, and those of Walmart, are going in the other direction as inventory problems are now prevalent....but rents continue to soar, with the latest median rent in the US above 2000.. And some of the big growth cities of Cincinnati, Nashville, and Seattle seeing 30% YOY increase... Which is nothing compared to the Austin numbers of up 50%... We know that last one personally...but we think inflation will slow down, we just don't know how quickly the Fed will move to 75 basis at a meeting...

Terminal rate has moved to 3.75% and will probably go higher until we see some back off in inflation... We still think sending the economy into a severe recession does not make sense... What really is needed is some substance out of DC to recognize, that the sanctions on Russia have not worked... And the ones paying for it are the US consumers...we could also blame some of the ESG initiatives, but we do not want to bring politics to economic analysis...

Corporate spreads are under attack... IG CDX moved out from 80 last week to 96 now... We see support at 97, but if that does not hold then 112... As for HY CDX , it is blowing out, out 26 today at 557, that had been at 472 last week... Based on the charts, we see 636 as support.. Oracle blew it by not coming with their 25 billion last week or two weeks ago... But the expectation for corporate IG issuance is for another 30 billion this week... We doubt that happens as it is going to be an ugly week with expectations changing for both spreads, recession fears, and rates...

After 2 sigma moves Friday in the belly, we doubt the worst is over...CTA's have made a killing remaining short, even when 10 years hit 2.70 , now back 55... All eyes on the Fed... DC needs to take responsibility as monetary policy can not fix supply chains or resolve the Russian effects on markets... The only good thing we see is that M2, which used to be a big deal 20 years ago, when we all waited until 4.30 on Thursday to move markets, is now worth watching again, as it is starting to shrink... And while all the QT talk is being blamed for some of the market back up in rates, the first of the run off occurs in the settlement of the refunding Wednesday... Strap in for an ugly week, or a great week for the HF that are short big time...

I don't know about everyone else, but I see an amazing buying opportunity today.