Hard time believing O&G is going to go down much at this point at least for the next year or more....especially blue chips....commodity prices are high and will remain high.

Agree. It may just be a short term pull back. It does look extended from its 8/21 day MA's.

But hard to argue with the charts. OIH is red today after gapping up and now trading below Friday close. Could be an RDR there.

Ag CPA said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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Hard time believing O&G is going to go down much at this point at least for the next year or more....especially blue chips....commodity prices are high and will remain high.

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I work in the industry and can't tell you how much money I have lost over the years thinking this.

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Fair. I don't think my outlook is very long-term but at least a year or so....maybe a massive recession that just destroys everything but, in my humble opinion, compared to many sectors, its pretty solid bet for the next 12 months or more. Could be wrong....

Just remember the market is forward thinking. How much of the current price already has that baked in plus bandwagon buyers? If that's the case you could see profit taking of the price doesn't move significantly higher soon.

Am I the only one who saw a huge gap in the SPY chart? Dropped like 2 points immediately? Is it a Fidelity thing?

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Am I the only one who saw a huge gap in the SPY chart? Dropped like 2 points immediately? Is it a Fidelity thing?

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from 415-413? It gradually did that over 15 minutes. Fidelity sometimes gets lag + gy.

AMZN is having a day. Betting some of it has to do with the split fast approaching. I read that it is for s/h of record as of 6/3, so this Friday. Unless there's a major macro pull back, I think it continues to push through that date.

Edit - stated the obvious. Articles being published talking about this exact thing as I typed.

planoaggie123 said:

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Ag CPA said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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Hard time believing O&G is going to go down much at this point at least for the next year or more....especially blue chips....commodity prices are high and will remain high.

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I work in the industry and can't tell you how much money I have lost over the years thinking this.

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Fair. I don't think my outlook is very long-term but at least a year or so....maybe a massive recession that just destroys everything but, in my humble opinion, compared to many sectors, its pretty solid bet for the next 12 months or more. Could be wrong....

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Not trying to dissuade you, just keep your eyes open. As I type this OPEC is considering suspending Russia from OPEC+ and crude is dropping.

they going to dump into the close?

I bought TSLA 780C for the close. Let's see if we can get a run up to $770 in the next 15-20 minutes.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I bought TSLA 780C for the close. Let's see if we can get a run up to $770 in the next 15-20 minutes.

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Nope, looks like a dump. I sold my calls for a tidy $27 profit and bought puts. ... which I sold for $6 total profit, not including fees, and am back on the long side now. I probably should exercise a little patience and let it confirm a direction first, but here we are.

or rip..

AMD looks like it could be a nice put contender. It traded to the top of the channel. Normally when that happens the next day is red, then gap down red after that.
Down trend line is from 11/29 - 3/29. 12/27, 1/3, 3/29, 11/29 were the 4 points that traded in that fashion.

SPX/Y seems pinned at its opening price. Looks like gonna turn in a doji-like candle. Suspect tomorrow will also trade up but preparing for a reversal.

Have not traded today because I wasn't sure of how price action would go. Today was effectively an inside day. Tomorrow's follow through will tell more of the story.

I write this as it drops down back to mid 412's as some whale unloaded…..and then a rally to close .01 from the opening price.

We rip face tomorrow.

Philip J Fry said:

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We rip face tomorrow.

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I hope so. I still think the market makes a decision this week and we'll get a big move either way after that.

I'd love for there to be some huge SAVA news, but I'm thinking this may be more about end of month and shorts covering than new active buyers getting invested.

We rejected an important resistance line on SAVA. If we dip below 28, I think we go down to the low 20s again.

FJ43 said:

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FJ43 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Lottoing 420c Friday expiry. 1.47

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These are up 25% if you followed. Manage risk.

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IF…big IF SPY gets to 416 and change I'll take these off fully.

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Exited all over 416 today as noted above. If you followed hope you did as well.

Got in a little later than you (@1.74), but followed your suggestion and exited around 416 (@2.50). This coupled with some lucky/well timed SAVA calls made for a great start to the week.

Thanks FJ!

A bit off topic but I'll try to spin it into an economic/business discussion.

Anyone here familiar with the Peter principle? "People are promoted to their highest level of incompetence"? Something like this….

Is this practice pervasive in today's business world? If so, how do companies stay profitable with such lemmings-type work being done? It seems pervasive in hospital administration not necessarily at executive levels but certainly at middle level Mgmt, etc.

Just curious for others' experiences. I never worked in a "traditional company" since my old days of waiting tables at Saltgrass. Have been buried in hospitals since the mid 2000s (medical school on).

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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A bit off topic but I'll try to spin it into an economic/business discussion.

Anyone here familiar with the Peter principle? "People are promoted to their highest level of incompetence"? Something like this….

Is this practice pervasive in today's business world? If so, how do companies stay profitable with such lemmings-type work being done? It seems pervasive in hospital administration not necessarily at executive levels but certainly at middle level Mgmt, etc.

Just curious for others' experiences. I never worked in a "traditional company" since my old days of waiting tables at Saltgrass. Have been buried in hospitals since the mid 2000s (medical school on).

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Just enough non lemmings to keep things going in the right direction.

This may be why oil fell off today. Hope Farmer was able to sell his CC's!

I know most are aware but just a reminder for the coming months.

The Fed starts Quantitative Tightening (QT) tomorrow.

It will process $47.5 billion a month for the first three months. It will increase to the full $95 billion three months later.

They are trying to reduce their balance sheet by $7.6 trillion by 2023 end.

So shouldn't it be reduce it TO $7.6T not by $7.6T? If they go to the full $95B now, that'll get to about $1.5T off the balance sheets by end of 2023?

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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So shouldn't it be reduce it TO $7.6T not by $7.6T? If they go to the full $95B now, that'll get to about $1.5T off the balance sheets by end of 2023?

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Correct, My bad was posting on the run, I meant reduce balance sheet to 7.6T

Not your fault. Someone on TWTR posted something exsctly same and was curious.

Good catch FJ. Looks like the last one we had this clean was January 12th. We dropped from 470 to 421 before getting a bounce after that one.