Ah, yes. CNBC. The absolute pillar of truth.

LMCane said:

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TecRecAg said:

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I see this dive being relatively short-lived. If you look at the monthly S&P, there have been two times (since 1995) that the 8ema went south of the 21.. the dot com bubble and the housing crisis. Even Covid didn't cause it cross. Do we really think inflation is THAT big of a catalyst? I've been saying this for months... job numbers are still great. There are more jobs than people. Until we see job numbers diving and unemployment rising, I'm not worried.

My old man yells at cloud moment is this.. this world moves infinitely faster now than it did 20 years ago. The availability of news and information makes everything happen quicker.. stock moves in both directions are more severe. The only thing comparable to the past is that the market goes up over time. People will panic and sell, sure.. and I know this is a short term trading thread more than it is anything else.

Just my babbling $.02 on a Monday.

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why would unemployment be bearish and scare you?

that would release the Fed Reserve from ever having to raise rates- which is bullish for stocks.

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Are you serious? It's one thing for products to be expensive and weigh on the wallet.

It's another thing to have zero income and no way to buy any of those products, regardless of their price.

You may be the worst poster on this entire platform. And this coming from a guy that read the Zoo during the Sherman years.

well, not the best day for anyone. Some hedges helped me but I'm still down 10% YTD.

If you were given $100K for a shopping list, what names would you buy? Top 3? Not saying it's time, I'm a 360-380 guy, but now is the time to do the work and be ready for it.

EDIT: For me I would buy 1. AAPL 2. MSFT 3. XOM

I can't understand why we are still at such a high level. Prices are what…still 60% higher that when Trump took over? We have arguably 12-16% real inflation, the most anti- business democrat in office, the worst economy since Carter and yet this stock market continues to be above real value. Someone explain to me why this market isn't 2/3 lower?

Wow a lot of new names in here. They couldn't all be Barnes, could they?

LMCane said:

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ryanhnc10 said:

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GDRX just got TKO'd

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amazing- down 16% in one day

then down 37% after hours!!!

can you imagine losing 53% of your company worth in 10 hours?!?

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Add UPST to the TKO list

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow a lot of new names in here. They couldn't all be Barnes, could they?

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Hardest working man in finance

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow a lot of new names in here. They couldn't all be Barnes, could they?

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LMCane 100% is Barnes.

Without question.

He posted the tell a few weeks ago.

Been lots of damage to growth and risk assets below surface of major indexes. Most have been completely crushed well below precovid levels. Those small cap risk assets may continue to bleed out near term, but would not be surprised to see them reverse before SPY capitulates and resumes bull trend.

I think we are a couple years out from debt service issues and big wave of Ch11s. Which will be the real rug pull. I think this is still just a healthy correction as liquidity sloshes. Not to mention Europe and rest of world being relatively worse looking for safe haven.

Key date is mid July when I plan to roll my 401K into Roth. No way I get to do it down at these levels.

Futures green!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Don't know how to post gif's on here but would love to post the one of the 3 Ninjas movie where they "light up" that dummy repeatedly.

That's how it feels

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So I'm going to be a little vulnerable here. My account went from $900k in November to just over $500k today at closing, as it lost another $37k in value just today. You'll see that many of these could have been sold at profit at one time or another and I kept removing my stop losses out of pride, I don't know but obviously that was stupid. I know I'm not looking for professional advice, but the ones in the second list - should I just cut these loose as it is and go with names that are more well known with better leadership? Here's how it's broken down right now.

Ones I'm not too worried about, it just sucks:
AMZN, down 27% overall and almost 6% of that was today - equates to 21% of my IRA
BTI, down 4%
CWH, down 24%
CZR, down 29%
DIS, down 30% - may want to drop this for other reasons
GOOGL, down 23% - bought right after the split announcement
NVDA, down 34%
OMF, down 29%
PDI, down 8%
PLTR, down 60%
POWW, down 34%
RIG, down 24%
TTD, down 20.5%
WBD, down 29% (this was due to split of T share)
WWR, down 76% but really don't want to let this one go right now

This was due to some high praise on here as a sure thing for a retirement account, but obviously I didn't do the due diligence required
PSAFE that was BFT, down 84% - and this is by far biggest loser in terms of dollars

Probably should just cut ties, but not sure where to put it
ARKK, down 58%
BFLY, down 84%
BODY, down 87%
CHWY, down 67%
CIDM, down 65%
CLOV, down 70% prior to the small AH spike today
CROX, down 34%
CVNA, down 87%
ELOX, down 80% - cashed out the net free shares
FUBO, down 89%
GREE, down 80%
IDRA, down 68%
JUPW, down 47%
LGMK, down 91%
METX, down 92%
NMG, down 40%
NNOX, down 80%
RBLX, down 76% - this was case of FOMO after I initially sold for 35% profit
RGS, down 68%
ROKU, down 69%
SAVA, down 75%
SKLZ, down 94%
SNDL, down 46% - but this is after I took out many net free shares at least
SOFI, down 68%
UPWK, down 58%
VEON, down 74%
ZEST, down 80%

Actually green on:
T, up 1.5%
XOM, up 53.5%

I'm just commenting on some holdings without respect to your entire list.

BTI, down 4% - Great stock, paid .6804 div today, long term long.
DIS, down 30% - may want to drop this for other reasons - I am thinking just like you on this one.
GOOGL, down 23% - bought right after the split announcement - I don't look at it.
NVDA, down 34% - I don't look at it
OMF, down 29% - Pays a great div and I supplement income by selling Covered Calls, either a $60 or $65
PDI, down 8% - You'll be breakeven in 4 months or less.
PLTR, down 60% - I like this stock, but sold it. I'll re-enter at some point.
RIG, down 24% - Got rid of.
TTD, down 20.5% - I don't look at it.
WBD, down 29% (this was due to split of T share) - HOLD THIS.
WWR, down 76% but really don't want to let this one go right now - I'm riding to $20 or $0.

In the category...."Probably should just cut ties, but not sure where to put it"
The only ones on that list I own are,
ROKU, down 69% - Very small position and I don't look at it, will keep.
SAVA, down 75% - I will ride this to $100+ or to $0

The Green
T, up 1.5% - HOLD and Add
XOM, up 53.5% - I'm convinced it goes to $105 this year. I have several positions, short term trades and long term holds depending on account. This is an underappreciated O&G stock, IMO.

My advice is worthless so I'll spare you, but just wanted to add that I appreciate you sharing your current list

My advice to you is to invest in things that you know and understand and not because TexAgs or Twitter or whatever told you too (we are all guilty of this however).

This list is far too long to actually know and understand all of these companies (and importantly to follow them as things go good/bad). It's also a lot of tech companies which is just way too much concentrated risk for a portfolio (especially a $900,000 one). You clearly would have been better off just going in an index fund. Would have been painful to do while some of these names were multiplying, but it seems you lack the discipline to be able to effectively take winners and cut losses. I'm sorry this is such an expensive lesson for you.

The reality is that very few of these names will ever get close to their all time highs again.

Edit to add: I would absolutely cut your Amazon exposure as well. 21% is gigantic for one name and any index fund you have is going to have a large exposure to it as well. It is one of the names that will probably recover, sure, but what that also means is that the exposure in your portfolio will continue to get bigger and bigger.

Any of you cats in PBR? No not Pabst Blue Ribbon, but Petros "Jed Clampet" Brasileiro? I'm seeing a lot of scratching and pining for XOM, but PBR looking tastier, if you're into steak picanha that is.

Market Cap-83 bil vs (XOM's 355bil)
P.E- 4 vs (XOM - P.E 14)
Div Yield -22% (XOM - 4.7%)

FCF for the quarter came in at ~$8.8b, or ~10.2% of the current market cap; free cash flow was reduced by a one-time pension liability payment of $1.3b.

Pursuant to the company's 60% FCF payout policy, which now includes an option for "special" divs, the board authorized an $8.2b dividend for Q2 (9.5% yield) and a $1.5b dividend (1.7% yield) to be paid out of profit reserves -- the total dividend payment equates to ~11.2% of the market cap.

.73 cent special divy also coming in the interim, but ex-div date yet to be announced.


RISK ALERT- Commie s stain Lula De Silva becomes President and iron claws the company to reduce fuel costs for Brazilians. During his first reign of terror, Lula Kabob required Petrobras to sell diesel and gasoline below market prices. The dynamic since has changed at Petrobras (PBR), as Brazil has developed its offshore resources via major partnerships. Brazil is now a major oil exporter. Upcoming election makes the weak spined skiddish, but for those with picanha built spines, a Fogo de Chao esque divy will be served on your plate by a buxom Gauchette.

Full Disclosure- No position, but looking to enter.

Love getting stock tips from James Ellroy

Well my take on the current situation is that the bottom is very close after reading posts from today. We have people dumping AAPL, with 300B in cash, today. We have others now ready to cull their portfolios. If posts like this happened in our small group then you can bet your ass millions of families are having this same feeling and conversations tonight. Not to call out anyone here but I'll also add posts definitely saying some stocks will never see their ATHs again. I'm not giving any advice other than remember this when the markets are overextended to the upside and price targets are being raised daily, like 6 months ago. Everyone, including firms and 'experts', are forecasting the apocalypse. I have no issue if you want to sell junk but selling market leaders at these levels are more than likely to give you a double whammy when they rebound. IMO, retail capitulation is very close with people moving their 401Ks because 'they don't want to ride it down to zero'. Spoiler alert, they're not going to zero.

Quote:

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Spoiler alert, they're not going to zero.

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Petrobras is one of those "nationalized" type of company that third world country's will always prop up. They made it past the corporate scandals exposed a few years ago maybe 2015-2016. Still a big player in the BRIC's and seem to always get a piece of the action when the foreign conglomerates take any action off the coast of Brasil. As a long term player, Petrobras will be around.

ProgN said:

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Well my take on the current situation is that the bottom is very close after reading posts from today. We have people dumping AAPL, with 300B in cash, today. We have others now ready to cull their portfolios. If posts like this happened in our small group then you can bet your ass millions of families are having this same feeling and conversations tonight. Not to call out anyone here but I'll also add posts definitely saying some stocks will never see their ATHs again. I'm not giving any advice other than remember this when the markets are overextended to the upside and price targets are being raised daily, like 6 months ago. Everyone, including firms and 'experts', are forecasting the apocalypse. I have no issue if you want to sell junk but selling market leaders at these levels are more than likely to give you a double whammy when they rebound. IMO, retail capitulation is very close with people moving their 401Ks because 'they don't want to ride it down to zero'. Spoiler alert, they're not going to zero.

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Everything is spot on except for the bold part. There are examples of strong .com bubble companies that are staples now but never reached their ATH from the late 90s.

INTC topped out at $76 in September of '01. The closest it got was $69 during the pandemic pump.

There will be some solid companies that got way overvalued and permanent bag holders were created.