$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Futures so far defending 4247 first support.

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Futures so far defending 4247 first support.

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Bulls first stick save.

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ProgN said:

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Test

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ProgN said:

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Test

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Evening Update for #ES_F: Bulls attempted a mini bounce off 4250 support zone but dropped the ball again taking out Friday's lows. This means unless it can recapture 4255ish, more selling to 4195-4205 coming next which is final support of the 10 month triangle pattern.

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) April 25, 2022

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think the euro idiots bid it up for us and I think we see 4300 early this week. Continued downside pressure like we have had is probably good for bulls.

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austinAG90 said:

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Fears Permeate Markets...Equities Reject 3% Benchmarks... CHINESE PANIC

The world seems in free fall panic at the moment...Chinese equities collapsed another 5% with the Shanghai and CSI , but even more, over 6% with the Chinese Nasdaq... China continues to ease to no avail... Their currency is collapsing as the Dollar soars to new highs against both the Euro and the Yen...Every time that US treasury benchmarks get either close or over 3%, equities reject them and we rally in treasuries as equities slump... Towards the end of last week we saw equities give it up and corporate and mortgage spreads widen... It is now getting ugly across the credit curve

Treasuries faced short covering overnight as the Chinese panic became more evident as the number of Covid deaths in Beijing soared... Fears that Beijing will be quarantined caused panic buying in grocery stores... The global supply chain is now broken and may be permanently altered. The Fed is fighting a battle that it can not win... We still think no recession, as over 2 trillion remains in consumers hands..Consumers now have more cash than they have credit debt, a reversal over the last 30 years...but fears even in the US are mounting... You can see it in credit spreads, mortgage spreads (out 8), and munis... Overnight we saw short covering across the curve, with the belly better by 9 in 5/7/10, and even 2 years are better by 8, the long bond is following but lagging a bit... We think the highs are even for US treasuries , at least until the Fed meeting...

Equities have now reached our objective of 4220 for the S+P, but it does not look steady enough to step in... Sentiment is ugly, which by contrarian nature, is the time to buy, but we think the Fed is clearly not going to get a soft landing, and the choppiness is scary.. Overnight the highs were at the opening, and then collapsed 50 S+P points to a low of 3 am...China equities, talked about above, were the catalyst. This week we have all the major tech companies reporting, Apple is the most important and will announce on Thursday after the close. The Faangs had led and outperformed the equity market indices over the last two years... This has reversed this year, while the S+P has fallen to corrective territory, over 10% in 2022 , Facebook has fallen 45%, Netflix 64% , Google and Microsoft, over 17%.. The only one that has done better is Apple...

So where are we going.. Mike Wilson of MS is still the leading perma bear... He was all over the BB news this morning and as we walked in he was being interviewed on CNBC... We do not fault his view, but it seems like he has had a similar view all through the rallies of the last two years... But as we look at sentiment, the pessimism among retail investors may now be so great then even if equities continue to slide, like they are now, an intermediate term reversal may be coming... According to an old colleague, for the first time since May of 2016, the bullish sentiment has fallen more than TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS below its historical average. Historically whenever bullish sentiment has gotten this weak, S+P has generated positive returns in the following 6 and 12 month periods 100% OF THE TIME, with average gains of 12.9 and 20.7% respectively.

Credit spreads... We talked about this Friday...IG is now over 80, we see the potential for it going to 100... HY, is 438, as high at 442 this am, we can see it going to 500... Mortgage spreads were out 6 on Friday, to 124, we can see it at 138... Last week new issues came to the market with ease... Still good demand and new issue concessions were reasonable, but spreads have widened...in fact we listened to Rick Reider of Blackrock over the weekend, where he pointed out that you can now get short IG and Muni tax effective yields of 4-5%, which is a great alternative to dividend paying stocks... They are in there buying...

The Fed is in a bad place... There is no way they are going 75 basis points in their rate rises... Currently three 50's are built in, with close to a fourth in September... THERE IS NO WAY THE FED WILL BE THAT AGGRESSIVE, EQUITIES WONT ALLOW IT..Every time we get close to a 3% Benchmark in 5/7/10's the equity markets get hit hard which reverses the trend...so add in the Balance Sheet reduction, which will weigh hard against assets, and we see a Fed backpedaling from the recent Bullard Uber Hawkishness.. The Fed can not catch up to inflation, it is too supply chain oriented... And bringing down asset prices or slowing employment gains is not the way to go... But expect a very choppy week, and remember that treasury shorts are very large and China is in free fall.. Oil is down to a 96 handle and will probably go lower as China continues to struggle...

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The head of Saudi PIF committed unequivocally to take Tesla private with me, as witnessed by the Tesla CFO and several others. That is why I said funding was secured.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 25, 2022

McInnis 03 said:

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Quote:

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According to an old colleague, for the first time since May of 2016, the bullish sentiment has fallen more than TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS below its historical average. Historically whenever bullish sentiment has gotten this weak, S+P has generated positive returns in the following 6 and 12 month periods 100% OF THE TIME, with average gains of 12.9 and 20.7% respectively.

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