I want it to get back to $980.Ragoo said:
Need $100 day on Tesla tomorrow.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't know what OA sees in banks, but I'm not seeing it the same way.
Re: S&P, I think they're taking all the stops and then they're going to dump it down.
Earlier in the year I felt that we would see a rotation from growth stocks to value. I invested in several banks with low pe and good net margin.
It was a dumb move. All of my bank stocks suck. C is the biggest loser so far. JPM may have set the tone for what is on the horizon.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I booked just over a 2.8% trading day. That includes the cost of some TSLA puts I'm holding overnight and some 5/20 WWR $2.50C.
I almost went long above $442 today but I never saw an impulsive breakout and so always felt like it was a false breakout. Instead, it just melted up. Never felt convinced to go long so I just didn't trade. I did briefly scalp a couple SPY contracts for a small gain.
These were my first active trades in almost 2-3 weeks. Wanted to ease back into it since I got kinda burned a couple weeks ago.
These were my first active trades in almost 2-3 weeks. Wanted to ease back into it since I got kinda burned a couple weeks ago.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If/when we hit recession would shorting consumer discretionary funds, like XLY be a good idea?
In the last corrections (2020 and 2018-2019) this one lost 40% or more of it's peak price. Taking 40% off from the last peak of $215 would give a target value of $129. Even if we give the market more time to confirm, we should be able to take 30% or more in profits. I've never shorted a fund before, so looking for opinions here.
In the last corrections (2020 and 2018-2019) this one lost 40% or more of it's peak price. Taking 40% off from the last peak of $215 would give a target value of $129. Even if we give the market more time to confirm, we should be able to take 30% or more in profits. I've never shorted a fund before, so looking for opinions here.
My general thoughts are that the XL_ move fairly slow so they would need to be long-term puts but the general thoughts are right.
My bigger question now is where the next sector rotation is. I know it doesn't look like it's gonna be towards financials/banks. ABBV is also shedding major value in last week or so (so it looks like biopharm is not leading the next rotation), and transportation has been getting killed for the last couple weeks.
So I'm wondering it will be toward cloud-based services, other tech industries, or somewhere else. Semiconductors have been beaten down of late maybe time they rally? Discretionary spending things are gonna get tortured till inflation reigns in.
Commodities maybe? They're already killing it pretty much all year.
My bigger question now is where the next sector rotation is. I know it doesn't look like it's gonna be towards financials/banks. ABBV is also shedding major value in last week or so (so it looks like biopharm is not leading the next rotation), and transportation has been getting killed for the last couple weeks.
So I'm wondering it will be toward cloud-based services, other tech industries, or somewhere else. Semiconductors have been beaten down of late maybe time they rally? Discretionary spending things are gonna get tortured till inflation reigns in.
Commodities maybe? They're already killing it pretty much all year.
If you look at XLF, literally nothing about the chart looks bullish, but it is a long way away from the mean. I could believe in the idea of a bounce to the mean, but I think there are higher probability plays.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I meant as a short (shares) play if/when we confirm a recession. I thought that an tech would be the first sectors to drop.
Throwing another K at Apple and Amazon, I think we're gonna bounce
I think we already have started to....just cooling off now after a great run today. Then 4500 is a big level tomorrow, but squeeze should be on if we get any push at all overnight. 4445 starts a squeeze much higher.Dupree said:
Throwing another K at Apple and Amazon, I think we're gonna bounce
I'm paraphrasing a lot of what Mancini has tweeted today, but tomorrow could be fun for bulls
I think NET was one of the obvious ones, but that was pre-drop (dec., january). If it model T's to around 148 and starts to pullback that might be one to short.Bob Knights Liver said:
I meant as a short (shares) play if/when we confirm a recession. I thought that an tech would be the first sectors to drop.
Guess I expected too much of Biden and crew to make a good decision and not extend the mask mandate on planes
TWO MORE WEEKS
Is this the time 59South was supposed to be in Ireland? Haven't seen him on.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I mentioned early that I was holding TSLA puts overnight... gotta little story for you, Ags. I was scalping TSLA calls and puts two at a time near the close and doing pretty decent. I had two puts and was waiting for a premium jump in that last minute since we'd been trending down and it didn't come. The sell never filled, so I'm carrying two 4/14 puts into tomorrow. I netted these out as sunk cost from my gains today. I'll try not to watch the futures overnight. Even though it's only 2 puts, I still don't like to lose money on rookie mistakes. Be better, Bob.
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AG
The tsla puts have a chance. The wwr calls, on the other hand...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
The tsla puts have a chance. The wwr calls, on the other hand...
But I got them for under a dime each!!! I now understand my wife getting all that porch pickup **** that we don't really need.
Y'all having fun?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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FJ43 said:
Y'all having fun?
If we resorted to kidnapping you to make you play with us, would you even be mad?
tsla +100 tomorrowCharismatic Megafauna said:
The tsla puts have a chance. The wwr calls, on the other hand...
Not at all. Living vicariously through y'all at the moment.Bob Knights Liver said:FJ43 said:
Y'all having fun?
If we resorted to kidnapping you to make you play with us, would you even be mad?
But...yesterday was trigger completion on my end so one milestone down.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Saw your TSLA call from this morning, why do you buy in the money weekly calls? Why not closest strike up?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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lobwedgephil said:
Saw your TSLA call from this morning, why do you buy in the money weekly calls? Why not closest strike up?
That was something I tweaked recently that has really helped. I want to profit from the underlying price movement. Since I'm almost always buying with the price momentum, the ATM and OTM premiums are already a bit juiced. I often times was getting the price movement right, but saw my profits dwindle if the momentum stalled or changed direction before I sold. I'm also needing to buy and sell relatively quickly, so I'm buying above the midpoint of bid & ask and selling below the midpoint. That exacerbates this option price drop. So I started targeting higher volume strikes to lessen that and looking ITM enough so that underlying price movement has more effect on option prices than the price momentum.
Someone on Twitter pointed out options premiums often leading before a reversal in these high beta, mega cap stocks. She uses it as a potential signal, but it also explains why ATM options for TSLA could drop quickly as the price movement reversed. You could be at a higher underlying price and your calls are worth less than your purchase price.
Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $54.20 a share
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-twitter-for-54point20-a-share-saying-it-needs-to-be-transformed-as-private-company.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Musk wants to buy TWTR AT $54/shr and take them private.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-twitter-for-54point20-a-share-saying-it-needs-to-be-transformed-as-private-company.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Musk wants to buy TWTR AT $54/shr and take them private.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If he does buy them and invites back all of the folks that were banned for wrongthink, it will be incredible. A billionaire using his money in a way that helps protect freedoms. I know he'll probably make money off this, but wow.
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AG
"My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder."
Sooo... what happens when someone places a market sell order for 15% of a fkn company?
Sooo... what happens when someone places a market sell order for 15% of a fkn company?
Knew he was gonna do something crazy. Haven't played options in a while, but I picked a good one to jump back in on!
I don't see it happening really. TWTR is a cancerous leftist ****hole and I suspect most, if not all, of them will quit.Bob Knights Liver said:
If he does buy them and invites back all of the folks that were banned for wrongthink, it will be incredible. A billionaire using his money in a way that helps protect freedoms. I know he'll probably make money off this, but wow.
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AG
I suspect he plans on firing everybody before they have a chance to quit
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
What did you get?
Buy it. Make trump the interim COO for a day. Trump holds zoom call with every employee who is a leftist on the platform.
"You're fired."
"You're fired."
Russian Sabre Rattling Curtails Equity Rally...Treasuries Rally Steepen Again
There are too many things going on to determine where rates are going to finish in today's Holy Thursday trading, where bonds are scheduled to close at 2 PM EST...3-10 are better by 4-5 while 2 and 30's are better by 2+... 2/10 are hovering at 35, currently 33+... We see support at 48... Not sure the short end short covering is over, but we do expect bond yields to start to rise again next week... Fed governors continue to talk very hawkish, although we saw some push-back from Brainard earlier in the week. Waller was out yesterday pushing 50 basis hikes until the Fed gets to neutral... Which is being debated... Williams will be speaking shortly, Harker and Mester after the markets close... But we saw a Blackrock report that we quote
"BlackRock strategists challenged traders betting the Fed will raise rates to around 3% next year, saying it'll go to 2%, but not much further. An overly aggressive path of hikes to combat the spiraling cost of living may backfire, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute, which estimates that bringing inflation down to the target of 2% may push unemployment to almost 10%."
Strong words from one of the largest money managers in the world.. So there are those that think, like us, that the Fed will slowdown as numbers start to slow... We expect the housing numbers to start to slump in the June time frame, and look bad through the fall... Supply chains are still an issue with China shutdown and other supply chains struggling.. But it does seem like the car sales and truck sales are slowing now..
Equities... 2 trillion of options expire today...we detailed the breakdown yesterday... The equity markets do not trade like this is a major event...Equities peaked at 1.30 am and moved down 20 points to where we are now...Putin talked about putting nuclear weapons in the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join Nato....he is looking more like Stalin every day... Biden continues to challenge him in his stump speeches, we can't see how it ends well... But for now the markets are generally ignoring it... But there should be a bid in bonds as we end the week.
We read a Michael Burry post in BB..." Michael Burry blasted Fed policy again. The bank has no intention of fighting inflation, he tweeted. Serial half-point rate hikes are for getting elevation before stocks and the consumer tap out. The same goes for rapid-fire QT, the Scion Capital founder said. "The Fed's all about reloading the monetary bazooka. So it can ride to the rescue & finance the fiscal put."
Lots of contrary views to the standard street view of multiple hikes . If we see a close to 2 years below 2.37, we could see another run to the 2.20 range before the bear rally is over...
There are too many things going on to determine where rates are going to finish in today's Holy Thursday trading, where bonds are scheduled to close at 2 PM EST...3-10 are better by 4-5 while 2 and 30's are better by 2+... 2/10 are hovering at 35, currently 33+... We see support at 48... Not sure the short end short covering is over, but we do expect bond yields to start to rise again next week... Fed governors continue to talk very hawkish, although we saw some push-back from Brainard earlier in the week. Waller was out yesterday pushing 50 basis hikes until the Fed gets to neutral... Which is being debated... Williams will be speaking shortly, Harker and Mester after the markets close... But we saw a Blackrock report that we quote
"BlackRock strategists challenged traders betting the Fed will raise rates to around 3% next year, saying it'll go to 2%, but not much further. An overly aggressive path of hikes to combat the spiraling cost of living may backfire, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute, which estimates that bringing inflation down to the target of 2% may push unemployment to almost 10%."
Strong words from one of the largest money managers in the world.. So there are those that think, like us, that the Fed will slowdown as numbers start to slow... We expect the housing numbers to start to slump in the June time frame, and look bad through the fall... Supply chains are still an issue with China shutdown and other supply chains struggling.. But it does seem like the car sales and truck sales are slowing now..
Equities... 2 trillion of options expire today...we detailed the breakdown yesterday... The equity markets do not trade like this is a major event...Equities peaked at 1.30 am and moved down 20 points to where we are now...Putin talked about putting nuclear weapons in the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join Nato....he is looking more like Stalin every day... Biden continues to challenge him in his stump speeches, we can't see how it ends well... But for now the markets are generally ignoring it... But there should be a bid in bonds as we end the week.
We read a Michael Burry post in BB..." Michael Burry blasted Fed policy again. The bank has no intention of fighting inflation, he tweeted. Serial half-point rate hikes are for getting elevation before stocks and the consumer tap out. The same goes for rapid-fire QT, the Scion Capital founder said. "The Fed's all about reloading the monetary bazooka. So it can ride to the rescue & finance the fiscal put."
Lots of contrary views to the standard street view of multiple hikes . If we see a close to 2 years below 2.37, we could see another run to the 2.20 range before the bear rally is over...
— Sahil (@sahilypatel) April 14, 2022
— J (@jaynildave) April 14, 2022
Thanks as always for this.
A couple questions……when you quote, from time to time, economists who work for MS or GS or BLK, how much of what they say do you think is truth vs intentional misdirection to accommodate some of their larger clients?
Also, TLH (10-20 yr bond ETF) looks severely oversold. You see a continued rally there maybe back to 133ish? That's what I gleaned from your post, but I'm pretty much too stupid to understand 90% of what you write :-).
A couple questions……when you quote, from time to time, economists who work for MS or GS or BLK, how much of what they say do you think is truth vs intentional misdirection to accommodate some of their larger clients?
Also, TLH (10-20 yr bond ETF) looks severely oversold. You see a continued rally there maybe back to 133ish? That's what I gleaned from your post, but I'm pretty much too stupid to understand 90% of what you write :-).
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