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HoustonAg2014
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4:57p, 4/11/22
AG
What is the correlation between credit card debt and rates? Like if you are delinquent, I see normal like 14-25% late fees. So if rates go up do they start adjusting those higher I assume?

I was talking with a CFO of a small bank over the weekend and we agree that under the surface it's really not good. We don't know if it's student loan debt or credit card debt or mortgage debt that is going to get us next.

I was quoted a 3.875% 30 year with Cornerstone in late February the last week. He got quoted last week at 4.9% and I have heard people getting as high as 5.5-6%. That's in a period of a month. Young people and most people for that sake, have never seen a rising rate environment. Lot of young people I know (even finance and business majors) saying they will now wait to buy a house in Houston until rates go back down. I told them they may never buy a house. 5% isn't terrible historicaly, but when one guy gets 2.5% a year ago and now you are paying 5%, you feel like there is no way you should be paying double.

I'm talking purely from a mentality standpoint it is going to and already is mind ficking younger generations.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 5:01p, 4/11/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
went ahead and sold at 0.65

2.5X

Good play. I ended up about 2.1x on the 443s. Pretty small portion size, but it did help add to a small green trading day.
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HoustonAg2014
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5:03p, 4/11/22
AG
And I'm starting to wonder if all of these governments are trying to tank their economies. New world order and whatnot. I think a lot of the governments are colluding to turn this world into 1 big communist cesspool.
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BrokeAssAggie
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5:06p, 4/11/22
CPI numbers going to suck again. We going to poop again tomorrow.
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MaroonDynasty
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In reply to Brewmaster • 5:08p, 4/11/22
BREwmaster said:
no, no, no I don't. horrible things are happening there. Regardless of what you think of the Chinese, their people deserve better. Everyone here say a prayer for them.


I usually watch things like this sometimes for perspective; always thankful and proud to be an American.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to MaroonDynasty • 5:12p, 4/11/22
AG
Yep I understand, no harm meant in my reply. I literally don't have the stomach to see it.
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BlueTaze
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5:20p, 4/11/22
Anyone buying more WWR down here?
Could be double bottoming, could be falling knife...

Any news on mine or ops?

Props to all those who tax harvested eo last year
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 5:50p, 4/11/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
went ahead and sold at 0.65

2.5X

Good play. I ended up about 2.1x on the 443s. Pretty small portion size, but it did help add to a small green trading day.


Cheers to small green trading days in tough environments! I'll happily take a small green day as my worst day this week. Let's make it happen.
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spud1910
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 6:09p, 4/11/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Would any Dallas area people have an interest to meet once a month on a Friday afternoon or something like that to get together? We have some friends that own a cool restaurant over in old Grand Prairie. Place is called Firehouse Gastro Park and Bistro.

They host live music, etc., on Fridays. They do a karaoke thing on Thursday's. They have really good food and great mixed drinks with a decent assortment of craft beers too.

Just a thought….once boards wrap up, I'd be all in.
I don't live in Dallas, but my wife and I have a place on Greenville Ave. that she uses for work. I could make the occasional one if it happens.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to spud1910 • 6:15p, 4/11/22
spud1910 said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Would any Dallas area people have an interest to meet once a month on a Friday afternoon or something like that to get together? We have some friends that own a cool restaurant over in old Grand Prairie. Place is called Firehouse Gastro Park and Bistro.

They host live music, etc., on Fridays. They do a karaoke thing on Thursday's. They have really good food and great mixed drinks with a decent assortment of craft beers too.

Just a thought….once boards wrap up, I'd be all in.
I don't live in Dallas, but my wife and I have a place on Greenville Ave. that she uses for work. I could make the occasional one if it happens.
I would make the drive up from Austin for a few. I grew up in DFW and wouldn't mind having an excuse to come up and visit some people.
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ProgN
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 6:21p, 4/11/22
Aggiesincebirth said:
What is the correlation between credit card debt and rates? Like if you are delinquent, I see normal like 14-25% late fees. So if rates go up do they start adjusting those higher I assume?

I was talking with a CFO of a small bank over the weekend and we agree that under the surface it's really not good. We don't know if it's student loan debt or credit card debt or mortgage debt that is going to get us next.

I was quoted a 3.875% 30 year with Cornerstone in late February the last week. He got quoted last week at 4.9% and I have heard people getting as high as 5.5-6%. That's in a period of a month. Young people and most people for that sake, have never seen a rising rate environment. Lot of young people I know (even finance and business majors) saying they will now wait to buy a house in Houston until rates go back down. I told them they may never buy a house. 5% isn't terrible historicaly, but when one guy gets 2.5% a year ago and now you are paying 5%, you feel like there is no way you should be paying double.

I'm talking purely from a mentality standpoint it is going to and already is mind ficking younger generations.
That's what I'm talking about. New home sales is a major catalyst for the economy. The fed is already slowing that down with only one 25 basis point raise and talking tough in interviews. The bond market is already pricing in rates which is having an affect on spending. They're getting want they want without raising rates.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 6:31p, 4/11/22
All true but my guess is if they balk on raising rates in May/June, they will lose further credibility. Moreover, I think they will have to follow through. In all of history, inflation has only been brought under control with rate hikes. I'm not sure if the threat of raising rates achieves the same it doesn't affect the primary money supply, etc.

Will wait for AustinAg to give us the real opinion once he sobers up. :-)
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 6:46p, 4/11/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
All true but my guess is if they balk on raising rates in May/June, they will lose further credibility. Moreover, I think they will have to follow through. In all of history, inflation has only been brought under control with rate hikes. I'm not sure if the threat of raising rates achieves the same it doesn't affect the primary money supply, etc.

Will wait for AustinAg to give us the real opinion once he sobers up. :-)
Oh, I agree with you doc, but they have to follow through. They should have started in Q4 but 25 basis point moves aren't enough and the fear that hangs over the market is far worse than just doing in. Their actions thus far hasn't matched their rhetoric.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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6:47p, 4/11/22
AG
For some perspective...

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Brian Earl Spilner
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6:47p, 4/11/22
AG
Fixed
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ProgN
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 6:48p, 4/11/22

Edit: He fixed his link
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 6:59p, 4/11/22
Our only guide at this point is history not political conjecture or Twitter know it alls.

Some may consider it hyperbolic but I like Milton Friedman. I've posted a couple of his videos before.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:12p, 4/11/22
True but we have trillions of debt and raising rates will make the debt service even worse. We never had this type of burden in our past.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:17p, 4/11/22
AG
Everyone is bearish. I could see us absolutely ripping tomorrow.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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JRizzle
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7:19p, 4/11/22
AG
My thought right now is the following…

I can't really imagine a scenario that there's a lot of good news. Covid really can only get worse. Ukraine war seems to be more likely to get worse. Inflation worse. Supply chain worse. And the fed. I sold a lot of my positions and I'm more cash than usual for me. I just don't see what stimulus will propel this market upward.

Even if first quarter earnings arent bad, I'd suspect that most businesses will give guidance of caution moving forward with inflation / supple / etc.
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ibdm98
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7:20p, 4/11/22
AG
I miss the days of 30K's "Are we bullish now?" posts.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:33p, 4/11/22
This is what I was getting at with my post at the close….the main reason I'm sitting it out.

As to earnings week…..what r thoughts about JPM? There are gaps all the way down to $100 (between $100-110). Is it time to short the banks? They had a more modest rally over the past month while other equities soared.

I've been burned a couple times on earnings reports, but it sure seems if we're gonna get a big rally in equities then we're gonna need healthy banks and my suspicion is they're not healthy.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to JRizzle • 7:36p, 4/11/22
JRizzle said:
My thought right now is the following…

I can't really imagine a scenario that there's a lot of good news. Covid really can only get worse. Ukraine war seems to be more likely to get worse. Inflation worse. Supply chain worse. And the fed. I sold a lot of my positions and I'm more cash than usual for me. I just don't see what stimulus will propel this market upward.

Even if first quarter earnings arent bad, I'd suspect that most businesses will give guidance of caution moving forward with inflation / supple / etc.


COVID is over for 85% of the United States and have moved on and are enjoying life. We will not go back to any lockdowns or restrictions without a fight.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to JRizzle • 7:37p, 4/11/22
Expectations of those bad things may be priced in. I could see a terrible report that ends up being less terrible than expected or less doomsday guidance that makes the market jump.
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FJ43
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In reply to BlueTaze • 7:38p, 4/11/22
BlueTaze said:
Anyone buying more WWR down here?
Could be double bottoming, could be falling knife...

Any news on mine or ops?

Props to all those who tax harvested eo last year
Fade me.....

I've been buying in the 1.60s
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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tlepoC
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:40p, 4/11/22
AG
Will buy more at 1.35
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:46p, 4/11/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
This is what I was getting at with my post at the close….the main reason I'm sitting it out.

As to earnings week…..what r thoughts about JPM? There are gaps all the way down to $100 (between $100-110). Is it time to short the banks? They had a more modest rally over the past month while other equities soared.

I've been burned a couple times on earnings reports, but it sure seems if we're gonna get a big rally in equities then we're gonna need healthy banks and my suspicion is they're not healthy.


I shorted banks last week. I try not to carry into earnings. Financials are interest rate sensitive.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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ProgN
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In reply to JRizzle • 7:55p, 4/11/22
JRizzle said:
My thought right now is the following…

I can't really imagine a scenario that there's a lot of good news. Covid really can only get worse. Ukraine war seems to be more likely to get worse. Inflation worse. Supply chain worse. And the fed. I sold a lot of my positions and I'm more cash than usual for me. I just don't see what stimulus will propel this market upward.

Even if first quarter earnings arent bad, I'd suspect that most businesses will give guidance of caution moving forward with inflation / supple / etc.
Nothing wrong with that, but that's exactly how the institutional players want retail investors to feel. They're looking for that capitulation from retail. If you missed his post this morning, go back a few pages and read AustinAg's post about the market, it was very informative. Hedge funds, mutual funds and institutions are sitting on a ton of cash. That money cannot remain idle for an extended period and will have to be put to work.

When you decide to put your money back to work, I advise focusing on fund fave stocks and avoid no name stocks that you have never heard of, regardless if it is in a buy and hold account or a trading account. Those will be the safest and perform well. If it's in a trading account, play the peaks and valleys because this market will rip and dip. If in a buy and hold account, buy back in in installments, not all at once.

Very important, if you sold anything at a loss in a taxable account keep your ass out of it for 31 days. You don't want to compound a loss by also loosing the ability to a use it against your taxes.
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 7:58p, 4/11/22
jwhitlock3 said:
I wish there was a way to play extended hours with options, would make it much easier. I would have bought itm puts with that loss of 4415.
This is when it would be nice to trade options after hours. Alert just triggered that futures are heading into 4390 zone where I would target to pull some off from the loss of 4415.

This is also why I stopped holding overnight. In this market it kept making the move I expected and then reversing course before normal trading hours opened.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:04p, 4/11/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
This is what I was getting at with my post at the close….the main reason I'm sitting it out.

As to earnings week…..what r thoughts about JPM? There are gaps all the way down to $100 (between $100-110). Is it time to short the banks? They had a more modest rally over the past month while other equities soared.

I've been burned a couple times on earnings reports, but it sure seems if we're gonna get a big rally in equities then we're gonna need healthy banks and my suspicion is they're not healthy.
Don't do it doc.

You appear to be stretched very thin with work and boards coming up. You haven't even been able to post near as much lately so I don't think I'm wrong. Shorting and not being able to follow it or at least check in on it multiple times a day opens you up to too much risk. The markets are oversold, the banks are well capitalized (this isn't 2008) and funds love them. You could be up 4 points on your short, go do a surgery, and have your face ripped off in a massive rally. That's gambling, you're a trader. If you want to gamble go to Vegas.
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FJ43
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In reply to tlepoC • 8:06p, 4/11/22
tlepoC said:
Will buy more at 1.35
My buy lines

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 8:06p, 4/11/22
jwhitlock3 said:
jwhitlock3 said:
I wish there was a way to play extended hours with options, would make it much easier. I would have bought itm puts with that loss of 4415.
This is when it would be nice to trade options after hours. Alert just triggered that futures are heading into 4390 zone where I would target to pull some off from the loss of 4415.

This is also why I stopped holding overnight. In this market it kept making the move I expected and then reversing course before normal trading hours opened.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/us-state-department-orders-all-non-emergency-government-staff-in-shanghai-to-leave-as-covid-surges.html

Covid fear porn
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 8:09p, 4/11/22
I've had all of this Covid crap I can take.

Sorry....
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:12p, 4/11/22
I never complied because I knew you can't stop an airborne respiratory virus. I hope most people feel the same as you though.
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to ProgN • 8:27p, 4/11/22
Ah, makes sense, it was a pretty sharp drop on the 15 min chart.
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