Looks like y'all did good today.

Looking for continuation on AMZN and TSLA tomorrow, though premiums may be prohibitive. NVDA may be a good one to target instead.

NFLX might be a good opportunity to do my first ever backspread. I'll look at the option chain tonight and come up with a few scenarios. The high level is I think if it gets to 402 that it will run to 412+. So I can sell ~$400 calls and buy more calls at or above $410 with the premium from the sold calls.

Let's see if we can raise one of the McInnis blood pressure early when he wakes up

$UPST Things are starting to get tight! 🤏https://t.co/385gfRw0Xa

— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) April 4, 2022

$UPST Getting really right. I can't remember where they left off position size last week

Just broke out of a huge Darvas Box to the downside, I'd be careful on that

Bear Steepening as Flattening Trades Being Stopped Out..2/10 Just Positive

10 years started the overnight session at 2.38 at 8.44 pm... Then moved gradually up in yield through the Asian session to hit a peak yield of 2.476 at 6.32 am... This is the second day in a row we have seen this trend, with yesterday rallying at the end of the day... Our view is two fold... Too many have the flattening trade on and are getting concerned... But have not stopped out as of yet as the profits are large... But more importantly, the markets are starting to factor in what a reduction in Fed Balance sheet will mean to the yield curve... George of KC was pretty clear last week that the Fed B/S reduction will mitigate the rate rise to keep the curve steeper...Williams over the weekend emphasized that the Fed "will now begin tightening financial conditions through a SECOND CHANNEL by letting its B/S run off" the process which could start in one month....Barkin made some remarks yesterday that he did not want to give away the FOMC minutes because they will CLEARLY DICTATE HOW THE FED WILL UNWIND THE BALANCE SHEET... So either the Global yields are rising because of Asian selling, which we do not think.. Or they are rising and steepening because everyone has the flattening trade on... Or they are rising because the unwind of the Fed Balance Sheet will resteepen the yield curve... We think the last two...

here's a post from SGH's @TimDuy yesterday on Williams' weekend speech: ""Could begin" in May is basically "will begin" in May. No other reason to lay down a market like that.

"Rates...2 year support at 2.51... 5 year at 2.65...10 year at 2.61 and long bond at 2.64... We think the belly will push and maybe break these levels going into tomorrow's minutes... This should be the most important FOMC minutes in recent memory...

Corporates... New issues came with 7.4 billion yesterday led by GM and Credit Suisse.. orderbooks were only 2 times oversubscribed, down from 3.4 average... And new issue concessions were back to 9 basis... We are still waiting for the mega Oracle deal being marketed... With some ultra long paper... But so far no headlines.. Spreads remain steady with HY out 2 basis...

The US is banning Russia from using US banks to pay their bond interest payments... This should make things much more difficult...personally we think it makes sense to let Russia pay their debts to avoid default... We remember the Russian default of 1998 which led to the Long Term Capital demise... We had friends and classmates involved... And remember when the tide goes out "all heck" breaks loose... Not something we want to see again, it would just bring the Fed back into the fold as the lender of last resort...

Inflation...clearly not going down anytime soon... We talked with a buddy last night in Boston, who had gone to a Whole Foods Store to buy meat for a family dinner Sunday... The parking lot was full, but the meat counter was empty... Once he saw the prices he understood why... Beef tenderloin, which was last at 22 bucks a pound was almost double at 43 bucks a pound...

Expect some treasury weakness during the day... No idea how it closes...equities should also have some weakness, but not a corrective day... Big news is tomorrow and we think it will have a big effect on the bond markets...especially treasuries...stay tuned

Musk joining the board of directors for Twitter

austinAG90 said:

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Inflation...clearly not going down anytime soon... We talked with a buddy last night in Boston, who had gone to a Whole Foods Store to buy meat for a family dinner Sunday... The parking lot was full, but the meat counter was empty... Once he saw the prices he understood why... Beef tenderloin, which was last at 22 bucks a pound was almost double at 43 bucks a pound...

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This is interesting to me because the cost to have it custom processed has not risen in proportion to retail costs. Inputs have risen but when you're like me and run cattle that have almost no feed input except the grass they eat, we killing it on price.

Grow your own food or know someone who does and will sell it to you.

At the open I'm looking at weeklies of NVDA $270C, MSFT $310C, AAPL $170C, and watching TSLA. If we start running green I'll likely buy some VIX 4/27 $22C and SQQQ 4/8 $35C as downside insurance for this week.

Have you been getting more for cattle? Sometime last year, I heard people talking about getting squeezed on that end while watching meat prices rise.

Those who sell direct to the customer are not getting squeezed on price as much as those who sell to feed lots. There are still some ranchers out there getting premium prices on beef but they also raise premium cattle.

I raise a small frame cattle on our place and this year we should be able to beat the grocery store on price per pound easily. It's not a mass consumption business model but for the folks I sell too, they are getting a great deal.

BREwmaster said:

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yeah you may have started something here... is any of it for sale for folks like us or is it all spoken for?

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We are all spoken for the remainder of the year.

I won't know until the summer if I need to replace a heifer or two.

The dream is to buy the remaining acreage around us and expand to include my own processing facility, co-op with ranchers around me to provide sides of beef direct to consumer. This is how ranchers beat the processing conglomerates.

Brainard:

BRAINARD: FED IS PREPARED TO TAKE STRONGER ACTION IF INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATION INDICATORS SUGGEST NEED FOR SUCH ACTION

Who just peed on the markets cheerios!