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24,980,651 Views | 233756 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by bmoochie
FJ43
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RCON after hours

My first sells triggered or I wouldn't have known it moved.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Thriller
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Entry at $36.50, after hours, if I recall.
$30,000 Millionaire
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JNPR looks great. We should have sold at 38 but I think it will get to $40
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
FJ43
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Looks like y'all did good today.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brewmaster
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I do still have some shares! (have it in a couple other accounts, untouched still). Volume looked like junk until the afternoon. I should've just set a stop and let it ride. If we get a good pullback at 4600 or just some headlines maybe I'll get a 2nd shot at it.

It was continuing to consolidate downward which annoys me, of course it's mid .80's now, so looking good.
FJ43
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BREwmaster said:

I do still have some shares! (have it in a couple other accounts, untouched still). Volume looked like junk until the afternoon. I should've just set a stop and let it ride. If we get a good pullback at 4600 or just some headlines maybe I'll get a 2nd shot at it.

It was continuing to consolidate downward which annoys me, of course it's mid .80's now, so looking good.
I trimmed already with the last spike into the .80s. I'll trim again tomorrow with any push. Hold some.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Looking for continuation on AMZN and TSLA tomorrow, though premiums may be prohibitive. NVDA may be a good one to target instead.

NFLX might be a good opportunity to do my first ever backspread. I'll look at the option chain tonight and come up with a few scenarios. The high level is I think if it gets to 402 that it will run to 412+. So I can sell ~$400 calls and buy more calls at or above $410 with the premium from the sold calls.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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TSM might be one to watch. Gap to fill above. I might get back into shares and calls in the morning. I'll likely target late April calls and weeklies if they are cheap enough.

I'll also look at some VIX and SQQQ calls at the open as hedges, especially if I'm going to continue playing options long this week.
cptthunder
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Let's see if we can raise one of the McInnis blood pressure early when he wakes up

$UPST Getting really right. I can't remember where they left off position size last week
Philip J Fry
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Adding this to my watch list. Looks like a good candidate for a 30% increase.
gougler08
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Just broke out of a huge Darvas Box to the downside, I'd be careful on that
austinAG90
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Bear Steepening as Flattening Trades Being Stopped Out..2/10 Just Positive

10 years started the overnight session at 2.38 at 8.44 pm... Then moved gradually up in yield through the Asian session to hit a peak yield of 2.476 at 6.32 am... This is the second day in a row we have seen this trend, with yesterday rallying at the end of the day... Our view is two fold... Too many have the flattening trade on and are getting concerned... But have not stopped out as of yet as the profits are large... But more importantly, the markets are starting to factor in what a reduction in Fed Balance sheet will mean to the yield curve... George of KC was pretty clear last week that the Fed B/S reduction will mitigate the rate rise to keep the curve steeper...Williams over the weekend emphasized that the Fed "will now begin tightening financial conditions through a SECOND CHANNEL by letting its B/S run off" the process which could start in one month....Barkin made some remarks yesterday that he did not want to give away the FOMC minutes because they will CLEARLY DICTATE HOW THE FED WILL UNWIND THE BALANCE SHEET... So either the Global yields are rising because of Asian selling, which we do not think.. Or they are rising and steepening because everyone has the flattening trade on... Or they are rising because the unwind of the Fed Balance Sheet will resteepen the yield curve... We think the last two...

here's a post from SGH's @TimDuy yesterday on Williams' weekend speech: ""Could begin" in May is basically "will begin" in May. No other reason to lay down a market like that.

"Rates...2 year support at 2.51... 5 year at 2.65...10 year at 2.61 and long bond at 2.64... We think the belly will push and maybe break these levels going into tomorrow's minutes... This should be the most important FOMC minutes in recent memory...

Corporates... New issues came with 7.4 billion yesterday led by GM and Credit Suisse.. orderbooks were only 2 times oversubscribed, down from 3.4 average... And new issue concessions were back to 9 basis... We are still waiting for the mega Oracle deal being marketed... With some ultra long paper... But so far no headlines.. Spreads remain steady with HY out 2 basis...

The US is banning Russia from using US banks to pay their bond interest payments... This should make things much more difficult...personally we think it makes sense to let Russia pay their debts to avoid default... We remember the Russian default of 1998 which led to the Long Term Capital demise... We had friends and classmates involved... And remember when the tide goes out "all heck" breaks loose... Not something we want to see again, it would just bring the Fed back into the fold as the lender of last resort...

Inflation...clearly not going down anytime soon... We talked with a buddy last night in Boston, who had gone to a Whole Foods Store to buy meat for a family dinner Sunday... The parking lot was full, but the meat counter was empty... Once he saw the prices he understood why... Beef tenderloin, which was last at 22 bucks a pound was almost double at 43 bucks a pound...

Expect some treasury weakness during the day... No idea how it closes...equities should also have some weakness, but not a corrective day... Big news is tomorrow and we think it will have a big effect on the bond markets...especially treasuries...stay tuned
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Musk joining the board of directors for Twitter
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Red premarket could be a good chance for these mega cap tech stocks to continue their move upwards. Be careful.

SKEW at 146. Anything above 142 is danger zone if we get real selling. Any reversal to the downside is likely to get aggressive quickly.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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NFLX 4/8 back spread: selling two $400 calls (midpoint price of $3.45) for every three $405 calls (midpoint price of $2.23) bought. I should end up with just enough credit to pay for the fees opening and closing this. If it closes below $400 I'm effectively net zero. Max loss closing at $405 is $1,000 per back spread opened. Break even above $408.5.

I want to have at least 2x reasonable upside versus max loss on any trade I enter. For this one I'd hit that with a close at $415. It's probably a stretch, but I like that I'm protected to the downside. Also I just really want to try this out today.
Spoony Love
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austinAG90 said:



Inflation...clearly not going down anytime soon... We talked with a buddy last night in Boston, who had gone to a Whole Foods Store to buy meat for a family dinner Sunday... The parking lot was full, but the meat counter was empty... Once he saw the prices he understood why... Beef tenderloin, which was last at 22 bucks a pound was almost double at 43 bucks a pound...


This is interesting to me because the cost to have it custom processed has not risen in proportion to retail costs. Inputs have risen but when you're like me and run cattle that have almost no feed input except the grass they eat, we killing it on price.

Grow your own food or know someone who does and will sell it to you.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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At the open I'm looking at weeklies of NVDA $270C, MSFT $310C, AAPL $170C, and watching TSLA. If we start running green I'll likely buy some VIX 4/27 $22C and SQQQ 4/8 $35C as downside insurance for this week.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Have you been getting more for cattle? Sometime last year, I heard people talking about getting squeezed on that end while watching meat prices rise.
Charismatic Megafauna
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I heard the same, and the explanation was that the mob still controls everything from the processors on

Brisket was "on sale" at heb the other day for $3/lb. Limit 2. It's like our version of bread lines
Spoony Love
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Those who sell direct to the customer are not getting squeezed on price as much as those who sell to feed lots. There are still some ranchers out there getting premium prices on beef but they also raise premium cattle.

I raise a small frame cattle on our place and this year we should be able to beat the grocery store on price per pound easily. It's not a mass consumption business model but for the folks I sell too, they are getting a great deal.

Charismatic Megafauna
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Wanna sell me half a beef? Don't think I'm gonna be able to elk hunt this year
FTAG 2000
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Spoony where are you located?
Brewmaster
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yeah you may have started something here... is any of it for sale for folks like us or is it all spoken for?
TecRecAg
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Cmon MTTR!

https://stocks.apple.com/AFrGHTl7PR9GfHqPqu_NS_w
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm going to sit out TSLA this morning or at least until after Europe's close.
BrokeAssAggie
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Picking up some AMZN 4/14 $3500 calls here.
kyle field 94
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Did anyone listen to the SAVA chat this morning?

Obviously the market not liking what ever they had to say
Spoony Love
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BREwmaster said:

yeah you may have started something here... is any of it for sale for folks like us or is it all spoken for?
We are all spoken for the remainder of the year.

I won't know until the summer if I need to replace a heifer or two.

The dream is to buy the remaining acreage around us and expand to include my own processing facility, co-op with ranchers around me to provide sides of beef direct to consumer. This is how ranchers beat the processing conglomerates.
FTAG 2000
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kyle field 94 said:

Did anyone listen to the SAVA chat this morning?

Obviously the market not liking what ever they had to say


No news, said they wouldn't be releasing interim data (i.e, no news until the FDA trials are complete next year).

Also mentioned share offering to raise capital.

I have no clue why they did this.

I need to go through the deck fully, I'm guessing there was something "positive" in there that they wanted to get out ahead of some negative news. Maybe CUNY is going to hatchet that doc associated with Cassava.
tlepoC
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I can sell you some Longhorn meat but it'd be more of a bag your own sort of thing. We don't have processing capabilities - just the animals.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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QQQ and most mega cap tech stocks are down 1/2%, but NVDA is down close to 2%.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Well that was a quick reversal on SPX.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Well that was a quick reversal on SPX.
Fed came out and said they are going to aggressive reduce their balance sheet run off as soon as May.
FTAG 2000
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Brainard:

BRAINARD: FED IS PREPARED TO TAKE STRONGER ACTION IF INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATION INDICATORS SUGGEST NEED FOR SUCH ACTION

E
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Who just peed on the markets cheerios!
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