McInnissss
Did you ever end up trying out the mini crude futures? Seems like this could be a good time to grab a couple contracts as President dumb dumb decides to drain more of our strategic reserves

lobwedgephil said:

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Cash mostly, tomorrow probably pretty choppy with end of quarter window dressing. May run a bit, but will be establishing short position 4640-4680 for next few weeks.

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Think that's a good spot to hedge up and go short. Especially out a ways.

cptthunder said:

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McInnissss
Did you ever end up trying out the mini crude futures? Seems like this could be a good time to grab a couple contracts as President dumb dumb decides to drain more of our strategic reserves

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I have traded the very illiquid /QM futures as I like that they're cash swttled, I don't have to worry about taking delivery of tankers of oil if something goes awry lol

Wont get to do many trades today. 2 for y'all to evaluate.

RMO
I noticed the chart and volume at 7:55pm EST. Bought at 7:59 a starter position a minute before AH close at 1.59. I'll cut if loses 1.28.

CRM
May go back in the well on CRM 4/14 230c. Holding net free already.

Trade wisely today gents !

ProgN said:

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Barklays downgraded AMD

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So dumb. It's already been hammered.

Bonfire1996 said:

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ProgN said:

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Barklays downgraded AMD

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So dumb. It's already been hammered.

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Agreed

Oil Release Plan Coupled with Month End... and JPM Reversal Call...Treasuries UP

The big move catalyst overnight was the talk that the Biden administration is going to release 1 million barrels a day of oil for the next few months... We are very skeptical that the infrastructure even exists to do this much and wonder why we are using a "strategic" reserve for political purposes towards inflation.. Whatever your view, oil is lower and treasuries higher... Equities are flattish... Month end reallocations favor bonds versus equities, but we think that will start to reverse after month end. We expect a strong employment number tomorrow, which will give the Fed more room to be aggressive over the next few months... JPM has altered their Fed call according to an "old" partner of mine who just sent the following

"JPM Blames An "Itchy Fed" Seeking To Make A Point For Shift to 50 Bps ..At May and June…"not economic data"

* New Fed Appointees by June" May Return Pace to "Measured "

We do not put much credence in their rationale, but we made an hour presentation to a bank client yesterday where we said about the same thing... 125 basis of raises by the time that the July Fed meeting ends... Then a slow down of rate rises... Not only does it take time for the raises to make it through the economy, we have already seen a major move in mortgages, where the Bank Rate.com mortgage rate has gone from 3.27 to 4.89 from the end of last year to today... Many mortgage borrowers are already looking at 5% rates... This will slow down the affordability of many looking for homes... Our mortgage friends see a 16% drop in qualifying buyers...

Fed George yesterday was very interesting if you value what the Fed is going to do with balance sheet reduction and the curve... We sent the headlines yesterday but read an interesting analysis in the "Financial Post" yesterday... Remember the KC Fed has done the most work on the Fed balance sheet so it MAKES SENSE TO LISTEN TO GEORGE... We quote two paragraphs from the article


She is talking about using the balance sheet to manage the yield curve... She wants it much steeper... Here are a few excerpts from the article

"The balance sheet will need to decline significantly," she said, citing the "distortive effects" the Fed's nearly $9 trillion in holdings are having on financial markets. She said those holdings may have depressed 10-year Treasury yields by as much as 1.5 percentage points. "The interaction of higher policy rates with a large balance sheet will need to be considered," George said. "Raising short-term rates while the balance sheet continues to depress longer-term yields will contribute to a flattening and inversion."

As the Fed plans to hike short-term interest rates, she said, that could make an inversion even more likely UNLESS THE FED ALSO RAISES LONG TERM RATES BY RUNNING DOWN ITS BALANCE SHEET "SIGNIFICANTLY" ."


So here is the Fed saying they will use the reduction of the balance sheet to keep the yield curve steeper... And that 10 years SHOULD BE 150 BASIS HIGHER, because of Fed buying... So there is your 4% 10 year... One has to factor this in...


New issues.. 4 borrowers yesterday in IG to price just under 10 billion..3.2 x oversubscribed.. Concessions 6.2 basis... Week total approaching the projection of 20-25 billion.

Today is month end and quarter end... FADE THE BIGGER MOVES... New month starts tomorrow with a hefty expectation of employment... Do not believe the longevity of the oil release on markets... Ukraine continues to death and destruction... We can't believe the articles that say Putin does not know what is going on... He is preparing to increase his attacks and then go after other countries after Ukraine... Not over by a long shot.

Jet Black said:

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Is the house voting on the weed bill tomorrow? Any upward movement in sndl, acb, cgc before then expected?

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SNDL just acquired the largest liquor retailer in Canada. Sale finally closed last night I believe. Getting some good action this morning. Let's see if it can break $0.80 and hold today. It keeps bumping it and falling. If it holds we should see that $1 pretty quick

Releasing oil reserves to combat rising oil prices instead of removing the constraints on our own oil industry is insane.

ProgN said:

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Releasing oil reserves to combat rising oil prices instead of removing the constraints on our own oil industry is insane.

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It's a feature, not a bug, for this administration.

Wonder which GS and Barclays clients want to buy AMD?