As of now, DIA is still making lower highs and lower lows.
Stock Markets
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Last: 4 hrs ago by Brewmaster
Who's all going? $WWR
You may be right,I have no idea. In my experience, the DIA doesn't trade as technical as something like SPY. I trade with technical traders everyday and never once have I heard of someone trading DIA in the last few years.
Last Tuesday low, could have been retest-rejection on yearly lows. Could also go straight down off the Fed, who knows.
Last Tuesday low, could have been retest-rejection on yearly lows. Could also go straight down off the Fed, who knows.
Thundergon said:
Who's all going? $WWR
Is there a Q&A on the agenda? If so, I'll contribute to a trusted delegate's plane ticket to ask the question "Have you heard of TexAgs?"
Oh lol thought you were beating serious about Powell making it rip. If I sold puts every time he talked I would have been able to retire haha
Aggiesincebirth said:
Oh lol thought you were beating serious about Powell making it rip. If I sold puts every time he talked I would have been able to retire haha
I don't remember the last time the market went down while he was talking. Maybe that's blissful ignorance but it just seems to dance to his sweet words.
BaylorSpineGuy said:Aggiesincebirth said:
Oh lol thought you were beating serious about Powell making it rip. If I sold puts every time he talked I would have been able to retire haha
I don't remember the last time the market went down while he was talking. Maybe that's blissful ignorance but it just seems to dance to his sweet words.
I'm pretty sure it's actually only gone up 1 or 2 times since he has been FED chair. It is notorious to tank when he speaks hahah. Literally every time he speaks the market bleeds red. When he finishes the market starts to rebound but he is notorious for tanking the market. Terrible communicator.
BaylorSpineGuy said:Aggiesincebirth said:
Oh lol thought you were beating serious about Powell making it rip. If I sold puts every time he talked I would have been able to retire haha
I don't remember the last time the market went down while he was talking. Maybe that's blissful ignorance but it just seems to dance to his sweet words.
No offense, but this may be a worse take than your 289 day moving average or whatever it was.
Don't know what his 289 moving average was, but let the guy have his opinion. That moving average or whatever it was could be a money maker for him. There are a lot of ways to trade, a lot of ways to make money trading, and that is why this thread is great.
This thread should be a free sharing of idea's. We will all be better traders from it.
This thread should be a free sharing of idea's. We will all be better traders from it.
I honestly started to question if I've been in a twilight zone for the last 6 years
Opinions are great, and I think this thread does a good job of allowing lots of different points of view.lobwedgephil said:
Don't know what his 289 moving average was, but let the guy have his opinion. That moving average or whatever it was could be a money maker for him. There are a lot of ways to trade, a lot of ways to make money trading, and that is why this thread is great.
This thread should be a free sharing of idea's. We will all be better traders from it.
But it's also okay to point out something that is factually incorrect, so that others aren't unduly influenced in their trading.
That is fair. They can both be correct. Last time Powell was live was two days in front of Congress, we ripped up day 1, we sold off day 2.
lobwedgephil said:
That is fair. They can both be correct. Last time Powell was live was two days in front of Congress, we ripped up day 1, we sold off day 2.
Someone posted a graph of when Powell spoke and the markets reaction and the bar graph was pretty hilarious and pretty overwhelming with evidence that he tanks the market. Now there have been a couple rips when he has spoken but I always hold on to my ass the days he speaks and remind myself to not look until the following day.
All I remember for the past year is transitory nonsense and a rip. Then, he changed his tune some in the fall, and then it went up anyway. I remember this cause some pundit commented that the markets responded positively to "wanting to be tamed" or some bull$h!t like that.
Maybe it's gone down more recently but I seem to recall quite a few positive responses. I'll try to do a recap of the last 8 months this weekend. Am on call this wknd, and operating tomorrow/Friday with office Thursday. But will try to do that. Have one other thing in mind to review/summarize for everyone.
Maybe it's gone down more recently but I seem to recall quite a few positive responses. I'll try to do a recap of the last 8 months this weekend. Am on call this wknd, and operating tomorrow/Friday with office Thursday. But will try to do that. Have one other thing in mind to review/summarize for everyone.
NIO with a MOVE overnight.
Mid 17's now (13s yesterday)
Mid 17's now (13s yesterday)
All China stocks exploded after they said F yo puts shorties.McInnis 03 said:
NIO with a MOVE overnight.
Mid 17's now (13s yesterday)
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Baba up 18% premarket. I looked at those 50k follow 110 calls yesterday and was like "$40 otm now...those are dead" and was real proud of myself for not doubling down and throwing good money after bad...
Bumping right up against that first trendline FJ mentioned last night
Any catalyst for this future rip or are we at high risk of crapping it all away today with Fed talks?
gougler08 said:
Any catalyst for this future rip or are we at high risk of crapping it all away today with Fed talks?
There's always high chance of crapping it all away when fed talks
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I'm no quant, but i think clearing 425 yesterday signaled the end of the great recession of March 2022, and possibly all bear markets forever. Because that's where i turned "baylor" and bought puts
Edit: really more like "bear-curious"
Edit: really more like "bear-curious"
If Powell signals 5-7 rate hikes - crashgougler08 said:
Any catalyst for this future rip or are we at high risk of crapping it all away today with Fed talks?
If Powell signals 3-4 rate hikes - chop
If Powell signals 1-2 rate hikes - rippy
How to know if he signals 1-2? If he mentions downside risks associated with employment gains and doesn't want the FED to be the catalyst.
How to know if he signals 5-7? If he states that inflation must be controlled despite unknown costs of action.
Risk ON...Chinese Encourages Buying...Ukraine Talks "Realistic"..10 Yr Hits 2.20
We said that this Fed meeting had the potential to turn into a "risk on" event……And so far that is occurring... Chinese institutional investors "were encouraged" by the government to buy equities and both Hong Kong and CSI 300 soared, up over 9% and 4% respectively... Meanwhile over 30 million Chinese are being Covid locked down... S+P futures started to move overnight at 1.14 am and went up 70 points from the low, currently up over 50... Add that to the 89 point rally yesterday and this could turn into a multi day risk on...
Rates... Bear steepening as others are starting to think like us that even in the face of absurd inflation, many are expecting a dovish rate rise today... Others remain stubborn with odds of 50 today still of about 15% and December now showing over 7 rate hikes on WIRP...odds for 50 in May are now over 50/50...Meanwhile 10 years hit a new high yield overnight at 2.20..5 years hit 2.15..Yield curve is full of inversions with 7/10s inverted and 20/30 has been inverted for some time... 5/10 are getting close with only 4.5 basis... We have support at 2.23 for 10 year, but could easily break to a 2.30 handle today... European rates have been getting crushed with 5 year Bunds moving 50 basis this month.
Fed... Three scenarios... We think the odds of at least one dissent is high...
Scenario 1 Dovish move...25 basis with talk about watching the international events as Ukraine war and China's shut down loom.. Recognition that the Fed can do little towards solving the supply side inflation spikes... Bonds continue to steepen and flatteners get taken off... We see that as 60%
Scenario 2... Fed neutral move... Recognition that every meeting is a live meeting and they could easily go again in May... Nothing is off the table... Status quo for the curve... Some inversions remain but flatteners continue to stand...
Scenario 3... Fed Hawkish... Raise 25 today and say that it would have been more if the international events were resolved... Curve flattens and potentially starts to move to more inversion... With 2/10s and 5/30s under pressure...equities risk on will reverse...
Trend moves historically start about 18 hours after the announcement... For whatever reason London time is when the real trend moves start... So fade the first move later today..
Margin loans and lack of liquidity has to be on the Fed's radar screen... We talked about the 8 billion dollar margin call that JPM was arranging with a Chinese company... They did not want to close and if implemented could have brought down LME (London Metals Exchange)... Yesterday we had a hedge fund raise money for a 2-4 billion margin call on oil. Trafigura... Zolton Pozsar of CS talked two weeks ago about a "Classic Liquidity Crisis"... Why do we talk about it? Because IF THE FED MOVES TOO AGGRESSIVELY THEN MORE MARGIN CALLS COULD FORCE THEM TO REVERSE JUST AS THEY STARTED...
Should be a wild day...
We said that this Fed meeting had the potential to turn into a "risk on" event……And so far that is occurring... Chinese institutional investors "were encouraged" by the government to buy equities and both Hong Kong and CSI 300 soared, up over 9% and 4% respectively... Meanwhile over 30 million Chinese are being Covid locked down... S+P futures started to move overnight at 1.14 am and went up 70 points from the low, currently up over 50... Add that to the 89 point rally yesterday and this could turn into a multi day risk on...
Rates... Bear steepening as others are starting to think like us that even in the face of absurd inflation, many are expecting a dovish rate rise today... Others remain stubborn with odds of 50 today still of about 15% and December now showing over 7 rate hikes on WIRP...odds for 50 in May are now over 50/50...Meanwhile 10 years hit a new high yield overnight at 2.20..5 years hit 2.15..Yield curve is full of inversions with 7/10s inverted and 20/30 has been inverted for some time... 5/10 are getting close with only 4.5 basis... We have support at 2.23 for 10 year, but could easily break to a 2.30 handle today... European rates have been getting crushed with 5 year Bunds moving 50 basis this month.
Fed... Three scenarios... We think the odds of at least one dissent is high...
Scenario 1 Dovish move...25 basis with talk about watching the international events as Ukraine war and China's shut down loom.. Recognition that the Fed can do little towards solving the supply side inflation spikes... Bonds continue to steepen and flatteners get taken off... We see that as 60%
Scenario 2... Fed neutral move... Recognition that every meeting is a live meeting and they could easily go again in May... Nothing is off the table... Status quo for the curve... Some inversions remain but flatteners continue to stand...
Scenario 3... Fed Hawkish... Raise 25 today and say that it would have been more if the international events were resolved... Curve flattens and potentially starts to move to more inversion... With 2/10s and 5/30s under pressure...equities risk on will reverse...
Trend moves historically start about 18 hours after the announcement... For whatever reason London time is when the real trend moves start... So fade the first move later today..
Margin loans and lack of liquidity has to be on the Fed's radar screen... We talked about the 8 billion dollar margin call that JPM was arranging with a Chinese company... They did not want to close and if implemented could have brought down LME (London Metals Exchange)... Yesterday we had a hedge fund raise money for a 2-4 billion margin call on oil. Trafigura... Zolton Pozsar of CS talked two weeks ago about a "Classic Liquidity Crisis"... Why do we talk about it? Because IF THE FED MOVES TOO AGGRESSIVELY THEN MORE MARGIN CALLS COULD FORCE THEM TO REVERSE JUST AS THEY STARTED...
Should be a wild day...
Today could end at 4400 or 4100. Be careful.
ES touching close to last weeks high here in pre market.
You sneaky ****ers...Irish 2.0 said:
Seeing a good bit of NIO calls. Seems like there are some 'bottom is in' on NIO types considerinfg their aggressive move with Chinese tech
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Thanks for the correction, FJ. I wouldn't want to mislead folks. I'm on mobile and saw that chart posted here that I thought was DIA. I guess it was DKNG with the nice RDR.
Thanks for the input on the bear inverse funds, 30k. I'm still learning and will definitely look into some of the options you suggested
Hope everyone has a good one!
Hope everyone has a good one!
Retail sales were dog poop.
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Max pain typically moves into and during OPEX, but this TSLA one has moved a lot. I'm guessing a lot of people closed out puts yesterday or bought calls. The latest max pain per shaggy:
TSLA: 835 (3/18)
SPY: 423 (3/16); 440 (3/18)
QQQ: 329 (3/16); 352 (3/18)
Spy and QQQ are already above today's max pain. I think as long as JPow doesn't spook the markets, we'll be green from here today. Maybe big chop this morning before he speaks.
If we stay green on Thursday then I'll begin more risk on. I think it'll be bull trap red Thursday and then low volume Friday.
TSLA: 835 (3/18)
SPY: 423 (3/16); 440 (3/18)
QQQ: 329 (3/16); 352 (3/18)
Spy and QQQ are already above today's max pain. I think as long as JPow doesn't spook the markets, we'll be green from here today. Maybe big chop this morning before he speaks.
If we stay green on Thursday then I'll begin more risk on. I think it'll be bull trap red Thursday and then low volume Friday.
bhanacik said:
Thanks for the input on the bear inverse funds, 30k. I'm still learning and will definitely look into some of the options you suggested
Hope everyone has a good one!
If you're going to short, well, be glad you didn't yesterday morning.
Unless you see something really attractive, the fact that it's OPEX week and Fed day means taking this morning off (minus quick scalps imo) may be wise.
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Hey ProgN, nothing to reply to on the post above. (BTW, I was around for all the references above)ProgN said:Height, weight, ankles, Subway?BrokeAssAggie said:
So I just ran into Matt Stafford in Highland Park village
For those confused, that's a football board thing, kinda like pre madonna and meaty oaker on message boards.
Just a friendly checking in on you.
Haven't seen the Rally A$$ and thought I better bat signal you.
Have a good day! Tending to my thirsty Tahoe, said it wants 6 quarts of DEXOS 5w30 if I want to go anywhere. Rolling my butt under the chassis. See yall later.
To quote Tic, many will be farked today. Don't be stupid. We are up nearly 4% in two days.
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