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Brewmaster
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:28a, 3/15/22
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
Can we be calling bottom on things today when FOMC is tomorrow?

This feels like a bull trap.

if we run today, we'll end up short squeezing, will be a nice big green day... then FOMC they may just kill put premiums.
just a thought (and my hope!)
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:29a, 3/15/22
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
Can we be calling bottom on things today when FOMC is tomorrow?

This feels like a bull trap.

Because the retail market has priced in 5-7 rate increases. I contend - and the macro post above contends - the FED was never going up 5-7 times. That would be complete and total demand destruction.

I think the big banks predicted 5-7 increases to correct tech to better entry points. GOOGL is at 22x PE, before the split. That's insane for their cash generation and their balance sheet. Their top 10 execs are compensated almost solely on stock performance, and their stock has been garbage since GS and JPM came out with the rate nonsense.

That's just an example. But there are great balance sheets in tech, who are mostly immune to rate hikes. Those stocks are on sale right now.

Disclaimer: I still think a massive recession hits in 3Q, but we have money to make between now and then.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:32a, 3/15/22
AG
BREwmaster said:
FTAG 2000 said:
Can we be calling bottom on things today when FOMC is tomorrow?

This feels like a bull trap.

if we run today, we'll end up short squeezing, will be a nice big green day... then FOMC they may just kill put premiums.
just a thought (and my hope!)
lol, let the squeeze commence!
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 9:42a, 3/15/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
Seeing a good bit of NIO calls. Seems like there are some 'bottom is in' on NIO types considerinfg their aggressive move with Chinese tech
Free money award to the Irish bacon man as well.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:50a, 3/15/22
AG
Buying back the SPY and QQQ short puts I sold. I will take 70% with FOMC looming.

Congrats to all three McFlys on their QQQ calls.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:51a, 3/15/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
This is happening faster than I anticipated......The Yuan is quickly gaining steam as a reserve currency, eh?




So how bad would this be?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:57a, 3/15/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Buying back the SPY and QQQ short puts I sold. I will take 70% with FOMC looming.

Congrats to all three McFlys on their QQQ calls.
and 1 Brew, scalped QQQ and AMD
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Brewmaster
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9:58a, 3/15/22
AG
looks like trend broken, careful here, pulling now

wow, what a fakeout. pushing higher now
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Spoony Love
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10:03a, 3/15/22
AG
I'm a pessimist today and rug pull would complete that mood. Should have gotten more sleep last night.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:05a, 3/15/22
McInnis 03 said:
Bonfire1996 said:
I think the bottom is in for tech. I'm selling some of my value stocks (ABBV) and hitting GOOGL.
Curious your thoughts on this corrupt nickel debacle, you too Farmer........ looks like JPM and the Chinese Billionaire got a bail out of only the most mafioso sized proportions?
My takeaways
-Bail out, yes.
-I mentioned in a previous post, are we in a WWIII - an economic war? I am watching close as I can.
-Tsingshan should have seen this hedge problem coming early on, in my opinion. Their value-at-risk VAR equations would (should have been flagging) and I think it did. This situation wasn't driven on 2 days of rally.
-I think the VAR's flagged but founder Xiang Guandga is bearish nickel to the point he will not stop selling and is emphatic about it. This says either, the fellow is crazy, or the fellow is crazy like a fox driving more economic damaged worldwide, or he knows/understands he's in a no lose situation and here's why.
-Tsingshan is willing to pledge assets in Indonesia and China against his position. I laugh at that. JPM and other financial institutions, as well as LME, jumped on that offer didn't they....no they didn't. LOL!
-The crime is this, LME should have seen this position failure coming days earlier too and stepped up security pledges against the trading accounts of Tsingshan, or their associated brokers, and looks like they didn't.
-The banks want "money". They don't want assets, especially assets in China or Indonesia. (What a laugher) Example: JPM goes to China and states I'm here to claim/confiscate my Tsingshan assets. China responds, "No". .... Banks want a negotiated settlement in money and allow this character to continue to play the game and pay the penalty (reduced rate of course), otherwise Tsingshan walks and the banks are bag-holders. Are there downstream future financing issues for Tsingshan, probably but they'll get financed by someone and they'll sell product (...it's a product in high demand and buyers will look the other way when it comes to the risk factor of dealing with Tsingshan)...it's the way of the world.
-Most alarming is the cancelation of trades by LME,...."Halting trading and giving members time to be able to find the funds that they need again is perfectly legitimate," said Jordan Brooks, co-head of the macro strategies group at AQR Capital Management. "What I think is striking for us and other participants in the market, and the financial industry as a whole, is the decision to wipe out trades that happened without coercion and happened in good faith." That statement right there tells you the LME and banks are making sure the negotiated settlement will allow Tsingshan to operate and will be protected to a point of being untouchable. Integrity is lost for the sake of getting repaid. It wreaks of having to play nice with a bully. Long & Short - As a business, if it has to do the China, you're better off not getting involved with them, but that will never happen or stop.

Keep an eye on Peabody and let's see how they get treated. It's a near similar problem in coal, but we're dealing with an American company and the numbers aren't quite as large. The outcome is of interest to me versus the Tsingshan situation.
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Pledged assets in Indonesia and China...ROTFLMAO!
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Irish 2.0
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10:09a, 3/15/22
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SF2004
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10:16a, 3/15/22
AG
So many companies why off the highs....

Am I wrong to still be cautious though?

I generally am looking at the pre-pandemic/printathon high as a gauge but so much downward pressure on so many good companies.
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Spoony Love
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10:17a, 3/15/22
AG
Look out below on SPY. Consolidating and lots of room down below from the overnight low around 414. Just sometimes it becomes a target after seeing what looks like the HOD.

And volume seems to be waning.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to SF2004 • 10:17a, 3/15/22
SF2004 said:
So many companies why off the highs....

Am I wrong to still be cautious though?

I generally am looking at the pre-pandemic/printathon high as a gauge but so much downward pressure on so many good companies.
Depends on the company. Are they profitable or still operating at a loss? Too many individual perimeters to consider for each stock.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:20a, 3/15/22
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
McInnis 03 said:
This is happening faster than I anticipated......The Yuan is quickly gaining steam as a reserve currency, eh?




So how bad would this be?
If (and that's a BIGGGGGGGGGGGG "IF") the dollar were to lose status as the world's reserve currency, here's like your really bad case scenario. That being said, unless the Saudis have finally decided to go full on bad-guy, they may be bluffing to get something from USA here on this "yuan for oil" thing.



Here's an article from 2017:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/china-will-compel-saudi-arabia-to-trade-oil-in-yuan--and-thats-going-to-affect-the-us-dollar.html
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:22a, 3/15/22
AG
And furthermore, the world didn't wake up today and decide that China's currency policy is solid all of a sudden. The Yuan has been manipulated more than any other currency of merit in recent history so i find it hard to believe everybody is ready to lean on it to support themselves. Might as well lean on a column made of feathers IMO.

Tends to lead to a bluff or a leverage thing for Saudi here.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:24a, 3/15/22
AG
and the Saudis denied Biden talks, said thanks no thanks. I remember them talking to Trump though. small detail, but maybe it means something.

Yep agree 110% on your above post. China builds cities and then tears them down, insanity.
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sts7049
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In reply to Spoony Love • 10:27a, 3/15/22
AG
Spoony Love said:
Look out below on SPY. Consolidating and lots of room down below from the overnight low around 414. Just sometimes it becomes a target after seeing what looks like the HOD.

And volume seems to be waning.
holding above 4180 on ES-F is good, i think.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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10:30a, 3/15/22
Easy fix,...stop all U.S. foreign aid payment today. See how many countries change their tunes about the U.S. dollar and stand behind Uncle Sam. I don't see Yuan being sent by China as foreign aid to any country.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to sts7049 • 10:31a, 3/15/22
AG
sts7049 said:
Spoony Love said:
Look out below on SPY. Consolidating and lots of room down below from the overnight low around 414. Just sometimes it becomes a target after seeing what looks like the HOD.

And volume seems to be waning.
holding above 4180 on ES-F is good, i think.
Looks like it's just me being the pessimist this morning. SPY making a good move here.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:32a, 3/15/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Easy fix,...stop all U.S. foreign aid payment today. See how many countries change their tunes about the U.S. dollar and stand behind Uncle Sam. I don't see Yuan being sent by China as foreign aid to any country.
And then every one of those countries holds press conferences and show all the scamming by our elected officials and burns down D.C., and shuts off the flow of all those foreign aid dollars to their bank accounts and those of their family members?

Yeah, don't see it.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to SF2004 • 10:34a, 3/15/22
AG
SF2004 said:
So many companies why off the highs....

Am I wrong to still be cautious though?

I generally am looking at the pre-pandemic/printathon high as a gauge but so much downward pressure on so many good companies.
Y'all don't get too bearish. Trend is....

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:36a, 3/15/22
You do have a good point.

***************

Moving on,....

If ZIM goes to $76/$77 tomorrow, I think I'm going to buy some. I think I'd sell at $83 and forget the $17 dividend.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Spoony Love • 10:39a, 3/15/22
Spoony Love said:
I'm a pessimist today and rug pull would complete that mood. Should have gotten more sleep last night.

A rip this week wasn't unexpected, IMO. Quad witch, p/c ratio was crazy dumb, and max pain was significantly above prices. I wouldn't be surprised for a continued run today and tomorrow, then the normal OPEX playbook of red Thursday and chop Friday. I still think we'll decide a direction Monday and won't get out over my skiis either direction until then. Make some money, but be careful this week still.

My QQQ and TSLA call flies are looking good today.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 10:45a, 3/15/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
Spoony Love said:
I'm a pessimist today and rug pull would complete that mood. Should have gotten more sleep last night.

A rip this week wasn't unexpected, IMO. Quad witch, p/c ratio was crazy dumb, and max pain was significantly above prices. I wouldn't be surprised for a continued run today and tomorrow, then the normal OPEX playbook of red Thursday and chop Friday. I still think we'll decide a direction Monday and won't get out over my skiis either direction until then. Make some money, but be careful this week still.

My QQQ and TSLA call flies are looking good today.
Do you mind sharing your TSLA flies? Think I want to get something on for Friday.

Edit - went with 825/835/845 for Friday. Max pain at 835.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:52a, 3/15/22
I bought 840/850/860 expiring today for $0.30 and more at $0.25. If I would have waited longer yesterday I could have gotten them a lot cheaper. They are just barely back in the green. I have a sell order at $1 but will look to manually sell them tomorrow if we stay green.
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wanderer
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10:52a, 3/15/22
SPY riding the rising trendline (1min)

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Irish 2.0
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10:56a, 3/15/22
This is why we pulled
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McInnis 03
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11:04a, 3/15/22
AG
NIO CARES NOT ABOUT RUSSIA.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 11:04a, 3/15/22
Putin tweeting but former President Donald Trump not allowed to tweet. Clown world.
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wanderer
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In reply to wanderer • 11:08a, 3/15/22
Decent drop, but staying within a channel so far
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Irish 2.0
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11:28a, 3/15/22
QQQ trying for a 2nd test of the 5DMA
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:30a, 3/15/22
AG
Manage some risk. You don't really think it's over, do you? I would watch closely at 2pm.
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mazag08
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11:32a, 3/15/22
AG
Man this market is going to spend the rest of today and tomorrow setting up a bloody end of the week, isn't it?

Hopefully bulls just let it happen this time so we can finally be done with this correction. I want the sharp V bottom!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:34a, 3/15/22
AG
I want to low key gloat for you guys doubting me on DRIP
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