BREAKING: EU, U.S., U.K., Canada pledge to remove selected Russian banks from interbank messaging system SWIFThttps://t.co/NTtMDLf6C2
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) February 26, 2022
Any bank with exposure to Russia is going to get hurt by this.
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Last: 6 hrs ago by El Chupacabra
Any bank with exposure to Russia is going to get hurt by this.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-leaders-weigh-cutting-russia-out-of-global-payment-system-swift-11645888337
Part of the debate about whether to OK a Swift cutoff of Russia is how to keep open some financial channels to buy Russian oil and natural gas. The EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. There is also the issue of Western bank exposure to Russiamoney owed that would be difficult to collect if Swift is unplugged. Foreign banks have about $121 billion in assets owed to them by Russian-based entities, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Of those, about $14.7 billion were owed to U.S. banks. A larger chunk$25 billionwere each owed to Italian and French banks.
There are workarounds to Swift that could allow payments even after disconnecting Russia from Swift. Fitch Ratings said banks could use otheralbeit less efficient and more expensivemessaging systems such as telex. Russia also has developed its own payment system. While it currently has only 23 foreign banks connected to it, more could join if Swift is no longer an option.
China is another alternative. Beijing has its own payment system, too, with more take-up by international banks than Russia's. By driving Russia and China together, critics say, a Swift cutoff could erode the supremacy of the dollar-denominated global financial system.
Cutting Russian banks off Swift altogether "would have an immediate big impact that Russia would quickly mitigate with other messaging vehicles," said Richard Nephew, a former senior U.S. State Department sanctions official. "It would cause the Russians a lot of headaches, but I think its value has been dramatically overstated."
Part of the debate about whether to OK a Swift cutoff of Russia is how to keep open some financial channels to buy Russian oil and natural gas. The EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. There is also the issue of Western bank exposure to Russiamoney owed that would be difficult to collect if Swift is unplugged. Foreign banks have about $121 billion in assets owed to them by Russian-based entities, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Of those, about $14.7 billion were owed to U.S. banks. A larger chunk$25 billionwere each owed to Italian and French banks.
There are workarounds to Swift that could allow payments even after disconnecting Russia from Swift. Fitch Ratings said banks could use otheralbeit less efficient and more expensivemessaging systems such as telex. Russia also has developed its own payment system. While it currently has only 23 foreign banks connected to it, more could join if Swift is no longer an option.
China is another alternative. Beijing has its own payment system, too, with more take-up by international banks than Russia's. By driving Russia and China together, critics say, a Swift cutoff could erode the supremacy of the dollar-denominated global financial system.
Cutting Russian banks off Swift altogether "would have an immediate big impact that Russia would quickly mitigate with other messaging vehicles," said Richard Nephew, a former senior U.S. State Department sanctions official. "It would cause the Russians a lot of headaches, but I think its value has been dramatically overstated."
I have seen Stoney live more times than I can count. When I was in Med school in Houston, I probably saw him 10-15x. A couple more times during residency and fellowship too.
Seen Wade 5-10x probably.
Seen Wade 5-10x probably.
I think it's no coincidence this gets mentioned on a weekend. Get Those cheap put premiums on Friday after a massive rally. This seems coordinated after saying late in the week they weren't planning on it.
The market rallied right up to major resistance, and now
a plan to disrupt financial systems gets coordinated. Who knows how it plays out, but it's just curious.
The market rallied right up to major resistance, and now
a plan to disrupt financial systems gets coordinated. Who knows how it plays out, but it's just curious.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I love having our resident bear Bear! I tend to think we're more likely to continue a rally for awhile unless we get land war or Taiwan disruption. Mostly because of mid-term elections. However, I completely agree that your scenario is absolutely viable and it would not surprise me at all. Folks that fail to value remembering this very possible huge downside risk being caught off guard in a bad way.
Worst case scenario, banks exposed to Russia have to book those losses, depending how solvent they are they could go under. But the exposure here is much smaller than banks had with Lehman and AIG back in 2008. They could easily do a bailout to make up the losses.
Fortunately, thanks to Obama sanctions back in 2014, I think US energy companies and financial institutions have limited exposure to Russia.
Call me cynics but there's is absolutely market manipulation at hand. The Putin war declaration was filmed three days prior to release, as per Unusual Whales. That gave leaders inside knowledge to trade accordingly.
I'd trade on that knowledge if I had it! And now they tell us they are cutting SWIFT after saying no on Thursday and Friday. I felt uneasy at close and so I didn't go long or short on any of the indexes on Friday at close. Felt too much like gambling. The common sense based on the charts said a continuation up in the morning at least before a possible reversal day, but I knew this sort of a thing was a possibility.
I'd trade on that knowledge if I had it! And now they tell us they are cutting SWIFT after saying no on Thursday and Friday. I felt uneasy at close and so I didn't go long or short on any of the indexes on Friday at close. Felt too much like gambling. The common sense based on the charts said a continuation up in the morning at least before a possible reversal day, but I knew this sort of a thing was a possibility.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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We're teetering enough, both in economic issues and spooky TA, that bad press and bank write offs could push us into a bear market. I don't think it would but it could.
Bob Knights Liver said:
We're teetering enough, both in economic issues and spooky TA, that bad press and bank write offs could push us into a bear market. I don't think it would but it could.
Spooky TA? What does Elvira have to do with markets?!?
Charismatic Megafauna said:
How about csco? They own duo, everybody uses duo
Dominates enterprise communications space and core networking. Starting to expand in professional services and they're trying to move to more of an XaaS subscription revenue model. Good friend of mine is in charge of their evolution to that. I am a long time buyer of Cisco products and a long time shareholder. Well run company with quality management.
Ability to grow is the question. Relies on M&A often now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Charismatic Megafauna said:
How about csco? They own duo, everybody uses duo
I like Arista Networks (ANET) in this space. CSCO is solid and I have owned it in the past, but ANET has more growth. I own it and have for about 3 years I think.
Niche player but yes. Don't sleep on NOK
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Niche player but yes. Don't sleep on NOK
I have watched NOK and ERIC and they have been a whole lot of nothing. I figured both would be great plays on 5G over the last year or two, but they have had terrible price action.
5G is in its infancy. Don't worry. Both will survive. Buy when everyone hates the stock
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Great stuff 30k, much appreciated. Now who is an expert in medical insurance plan? What's the real outlook on CLOV? Seems ridiculously cheap at 1.2 billion market cap
A thought on the markets. Markets hate uncertainty. Russia invaded Thursday and Biden announced weak sanctions. I think a lot of people were surprised Putin actually invaded also thought Ukraine was expendable and this war would be quick with Putin getting his way we move on.
Now it's looking like this could be a prolonged fight. The Ukrainians are fighting and the world is coalescing in their support. There have been more sanctions and the West is arming Ukraine even more. This creates uncertainty of what Putin will do and if a NATO country gets involved.
The longer this goes, the more opportunity for **** to happen
Now it's looking like this could be a prolonged fight. The Ukrainians are fighting and the world is coalescing in their support. There have been more sanctions and the West is arming Ukraine even more. This creates uncertainty of what Putin will do and if a NATO country gets involved.
The longer this goes, the more opportunity for **** to happen
Just keep money in oil and value stocks.
Ex) klic. Semiconductor manufacturer that is super cheap pe and loaded with backorders.
Ex) klic. Semiconductor manufacturer that is super cheap pe and loaded with backorders.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Awesome thanks, seems like a good ira hold.
Speaking of 5g, i should get back into cci. I've played it poorly a couple times, always took profits too early, it feels like a big ship, takes a while to turn around. Ex-div mar 12
Speaking of 5g, i should get back into cci. I've played it poorly a couple times, always took profits too early, it feels like a big ship, takes a while to turn around. Ex-div mar 12
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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My question probably belongs on the Swing trading thread, but with high inflation here and with rate rising and FED tapering and contraction coming eventually, I want more value and less growth in my longer term holds. Does it seem reasonable to prioritize a best in class but questionable growth company lock CSCO over it's higher growth peer in ANET? The thought being the more stable company would provide some upside but weather the coming storm better whenever it does come.
Alternatively with P/Es too high even in most value companies, is it better to try to ride the minor uptrends with growth stocks and go cash when minor downtrends confirm?
Alternatively with P/Es too high even in most value companies, is it better to try to ride the minor uptrends with growth stocks and go cash when minor downtrends confirm?
Huge line for ATM in Moscow suburb mall today. From Baza telegram. The Russian ruble will be in free fall when markets open tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/xGrWQ4WMwm
— Tanja Maier (@tanjamaier17) February 27, 2022
Do you know much about ENVX? I know HP loves this one, and it seems quite beaten down.$30,000 Millionaire said:
5G is in its infancy. Don't worry. Both will survive. Buy when everyone hates the stock
BREwmaster said:Do you know much about ENVX? I know HP loves this one, and it seems quite beaten down.$30,000 Millionaire said:
5G is in its infancy. Don't worry. Both will survive. Buy when everyone hates the stock
We sold puts in it for the 50K account this week. I believe in it.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Crown Castle isn't going anywhere.
Also, LUMN is beaten down.
Also, LUMN is beaten down.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Oof, Russia publicly responds to sanctions by elevating their nuclear force. That's a little more than a tit for tat move.
Putin has always seemed more put-together than your garden variety dictators. This kind of instability may be impossible to reign in.
Putin has always seemed more put-together than your garden variety dictators. This kind of instability may be impossible to reign in.
Nuclear force is his last card to play.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Crown Castle isn't going anywhere.
Also, LUMN is beaten down.
In LUMN April 10c. They are up ITM at the moment with plenty of time. Would really like to use about half as a trade and take the shares on the balance.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Putin is done. He will be dead inside 24 months.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Maybe, but I'm afraid he's going to get tired of the whole "David and Goliath, whole world cheering on the underdog because they are holding their own surprisingly well" game and just go scorched earth on them. The way this has gone down has got to be a huge insult to him
I really want staff to remove the bad word filter so I can say what I really think about Putin, so let me use terms in other languages:
- hijo de puta
- fils de pute
- mutterficker
Anyway, you get the point. I agree he will be dead in two years or less.
- hijo de puta
- fils de pute
- mutterficker
Anyway, you get the point. I agree he will be dead in two years or less.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
They are getting their @ss beaten badly. He will have to do something erratic to take back control in the fight. Thermobaric missile, the father of all bombs, may be in play.
My wife just told me PornHub has blocked Russian servers. World-wide market crash incoming…
My wife just told me PornHub has blocked Russian servers. World-wide market crash incoming…
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Without Russian porn, all coding at tech companies will halt.
Putin has become the world's villain. Everyone hates him. I am sure with todays social media society he cannot be liked well inside Russia.
PYPL, AFRM, SQ to zero confirmed.
Ragoo said:
Putin has become the world's villain. Everyone hates him. I am sure with todays social media society he cannot be liked well inside Russia.
It's interesting how it's all playing out. Putin is essentially getting cancelled. Big Tech is censoring Russian propaganda and narrative is Putin is wrong so nobody out of fear wants to say anything positive about Putin like they were a couple weeks ago.