BP removes its stake in Rosneft

ExxonMobil has lost around $1B due to Russian sanctions. They were about to invest $2-3B before the 2014 sanctions. It may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Saw this on Twitter. Weekend Wallstreet. Is this really indicative of how the futures open?

Right now showing DOW -400

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street

Traveling for work tonight back in town late tomorrow. So no trading for me.

There's appearing to be a major run on Russian banks. Projections are that the ruble is gonna be decimated.

Would it be wise to buy long dated options on Russian currency? A 30K style play like he had on Citi. If Putin dies or this whole thing settles, it could rally significantly.

Am I totally wrong here? Everyone shorted the RSX last week but it rallied late in the week by about 8-10%, no doubt burning the shorts.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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There's appearing to be a major run on Russian banks. Projections are that the ruble is gonna be decimated.

Would it be wise to buy long dated options on Russian currency? A 30K style play like he had on Citi. If Putin dies or this whole thing settles, it could rally significantly.

Am I totally wrong here? Everyone shorted the RSX last week but it rallied late in the week by about 8-10%, no doubt burning the shorts.

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Depends how long sanctions last. If we treat them like Iran it gets worse in a Russia for a longtime. If Putin is finished and Russia plays nice, then it's a nice play.

*BP TO TAKE CHARGE OF UP TO $25 BILLION ON ROSNEFT: SPOKESPERSON

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 27, 2022

This makes domestic oil a lot more valuable I think. Forever oil companies went to ****holes of the Earth and partnered with bad dudes to increase production. The risk might be too high to do business with certain countries.

Well, last week TWTR was full of everyone announcing to short the RSX. Even despite escalation in war, the RSX pumped late in the week.

A well timed option on the Ruble could make serious profit, even on a deadcat bounce.

TubTub said:

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Great stuff 30k, much appreciated. Now who is an expert in medical insurance plan? What's the real outlook on CLOV? Seems ridiculously cheap at 1.2 billion market cap

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I'm by no means a Medicare Advantage expert but this space definitely got overhyped during the SPAC/PE/VC rage.



this guy sums it up well:

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If these valuations for PCP Practices and MSOs look hard to believe, that is because they are. Annual Medicare Part A and B spending per individual is roughly $12,000. PCPs typically receive only 5 percent of that amount. By what logic would an investor pitch in at a rate equal to almost eight times the total annual health care expenditure per capita for PCPs with no margin? Investment at this level is smoke; what is the fire?

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With the current market cap, CLOV is closer to $18K per covered life, which is still high but not quite as crazy. They don't seem to be growing nearly as quickly as they had hoped, which is a big reason for the drop.

CLOV is also a Direct Contracting play, but that segment is still losing money so that needs to be fixed.

The general consensus is that these PE backed groups are just positioning themselves to get bought by one of the major payers.

If you guys want to gamble a bit, I'll do a Russian play.

It will be buy/write of RSX with 3/18 expiration with 13C the sold strike.

I expect there will be a spike down tomorrow

Bitcoin dropped about 1,000 in last 30 minutes. Spiked to 39K on peace talks, dropped after the nuclear comments and dropping hard again in last 30 minutes

US:

US citizens in Russia should depart immediately.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 27, 2022

North Korea defends Russia as it blames US as "root cause’ of invasion."

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 27, 2022

England to boycott all soccer matches with Russia.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 27, 2022

This is starting to feel like it can get out of control quick

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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It will be buy/write of RSX with 3/18 expiration with 13C the sold strike.

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Just curious, why not just do a cash secured put with 13p?

RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK ORDERS MARKET PLAYERS TO REJECT FOREIGN CLIENTS' BIDS TO SELL RUSSIAN SECURITIES FROM 0400 GMT ON FEB 28 — CENTRAL BANK DOCUMENT SEEN BY REUTERS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 27, 2022

Thoughts based on US announcing SWIFT sanctions over the weekend. Does Russia retaliate with restricting Natural Gas supplies to Europe? If so, Cheniere Energy (LNG) CEO appears prepared to fill the void. Considering taking options for a possible boost but also concerned of a pullback considering their past week being so green. Any advice?

Maybe I'm not understanding the situation. Hasn't this action effectively cut off gas to Europe?

I agree completely - that's essentially what I'm saying in my tweet

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) February 27, 2022

BenTheGoodAg said:

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Maybe I'm not understanding the situation. Hasn't this action effectively cut off gas to Europe?

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/newrepublic.com/amp/article/165487/russia-war-ukraine-us-oil-gas-profits

This is what I'm reading. I don't know that gas transactions have technically been halted, but it seems Cheniere is hoping they are.

98PercenterAg said:

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Thoughts based on US announcing SWIFT sanctions over the weekend. Does Russia retaliate with restricting Natural Gas supplies to Europe? If so, Cheniere Energy (LNG) CEO appears prepared to fill the void. Considering taking options for a possible boost but also concerned of a pullback considering their past week being so green. Any advice?

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Does Gemany even have LNG recieving terminals equiped to supply the country?

I'm pretty sure the SWIFT actions fundamentally cut off Russian oil to Europe. The article didn't really address it, but most of the articles I've read support it: Example

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How would a removal from SWIFT affect Russia?

Barring Russia from SWIFT would damage the country's economy right away and, in the long term, cut Russia off from a swath of international financial transactions. That includes international profits from oil and gas production, which make up more than 40% of Russia's revenue.

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I'm sure someone in the know will come along and correct me now.

Well that would be nuts

4260 is about the level futures dropped to

Dan Scott said:

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Futures open down 2.5%

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Hopefully I can buy back all my shares that got called on Friday at a discount

BenTheGoodAg said:

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I'm pretty sure the SWIFT actions fundamentally cut off Russian oil to Europe. The article didn't really address it, but most of the articles I've read support it: Example

Quote:

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How would a removal from SWIFT affect Russia?

Barring Russia from SWIFT would damage the country's economy right away and, in the long term, cut Russia off from a swath of international financial transactions. That includes international profits from oil and gas production, which make up more than 40% of Russia's revenue.

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I'm sure someone in the know will come along and correct me now.

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If that's the case, all the more reason for LNG to see a significant boost IMO. Hopefully someone here can provide more insight before open tomorrow.