Philip J Fry said:
If only he felt the same way about oil.
Drilling for oil bad. Mining for battery metals good. HTH.
Stock Markets
25,707,309 Views |
234953 Replies |
Last: 4 hrs ago by frankm01
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Drilling for oil bad. Mining for battery metals good. HTH.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Futures green again. Feels like a trap again.
If we confirm to the downside I'm watching SPX, QQQ, TSLA, NVDA, INTC.
If we confirm to the upside I'm watching SPX, QQQ, NVDA, ROKU and may go through PJF's last group of algo targets. Also with upside I'm watching F and AMD and probably TSLA as well. Always TSLA these days.
If we confirm to the downside I'm watching SPX, QQQ, TSLA, NVDA, INTC.
If we confirm to the upside I'm watching SPX, QQQ, NVDA, ROKU and may go through PJF's last group of algo targets. Also with upside I'm watching F and AMD and probably TSLA as well. Always TSLA these days.
Ukrainians "Come and take it"
UKRAINE PARLIAMENT VOTES TO GIVE PERMISSION FOR THE RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENCE AND CIVILIANS TO CARRY FIREARMS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 23, 2022
I would like to think that if a world power amassed their military on our southern border that we wouldn't require politicians granting us permission to arm ourselves. Far too many politicians develop a god complex when in power.BrokeAssAggie said:
Ukrainians "Come and take it"UKRAINE PARLIAMENT VOTES TO GIVE PERMISSION FOR THE RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENCE AND CIVILIANS TO CARRY FIREARMS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 23, 2022
Totally agree
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
What's happening with OSTK? Down more than 8% yesterday, then up 10% in premarket.
Earnings were supposed to be this morning
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
8,036
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Rev miss, eps mondo beat. 500M in cash on hand. Bet they announce buybacks
ProgN said:
Earnings were supposed to be this morning
tZero one of the crypto investment it has named a CEO who is a ex-ICE exec and got a large investment from ICE on top of that
That was the main news I saw. Just go to the Twitter and check out Mark Cohodes
Mild Sanctions Viewed as Positive For Equity Markets For Now...Bonds Lower
10 year treasuries were closed during Asian time for the Emperor's Birthday, but when they opened in London they went from 1.94 to 1.98, and are currently at 1.97..2 year treasuries are now above 1.60 (new 2 year) after having hit 1.62 in the overnight session... More rate hikes are being built into the WIRP curve as we have gone from about 5.5 ,to now close to 6.5 for 2022... When we were asked last night if we thought the Ukraine situation would curtail 50, while we said yes, we still think it is not in this Fed's schedule to move 50, regardless... Nonetheless we will have a much better opinion when we see the text of Powell's testimony to House, which should be released Monday night... Either way, about 34 basis is currently built in to the March hike, we still think 25.
Equities rallied from about 2 am when London opened where the S+P rallied 33 points, and is still up 32 points as we write... S+P futures hit corrective territory yesterday and bounced for now, but we have no faith that the worst is over until we see first Powell next week, and the FOMC release on March 16.. We calculated that we hit about 12% corrective territory yesterday ...Meanwhile Faang continues to trade very poorly and is well in bear market territory, down 23%... And if it breaks the current area, we see Citi talking with an under 5000 level... Not our base case.
Rates and the curve... We continue to see the treasury market moving toward inversion territory 2/5, 2/10, and 5/30... All are at narrow levels... 2/5 is currently 29, we have 27 as support, but if that breaks we are looking at the possibility of 8 and then of course inversion...2/10 is not much different at 36 currently... Clearly a 7 hike regimen by the Fed, which is not our base call, would send that close to inversion territory... That is not what the Fed wants and will likely use their balance sheet in such a way to prevent an inversion, which would trigger recession talk...
Corporate spreads....They are off their recent lows as the equity markets are up today... But we sent a chart around yesterday showing the trends are for wider spreads... This would be consistent with the view that the worst of the equity correction is not over... Yesterday we saw 5 borrowers come to market and have to pay hefty concessions... Meanwhile 5 postponed . Bloomberg reports that the 5 that came weighed that the spreads and markets will get worse and this had to be done now...new issue concessions, which had been minor or negative over the last year, came at 11.7 basis... LQD, the largest IG ETF, is down 6.61% YTD, that is quite a large amount for an IG Fund and it is still February...
Ukraine situation will remain, but the Fed and how they fight inflation is the bigger issue for markets... We have a few Fed speakers today, but we do not see much difference... If equity markets stabilize, rates and the curve will head higher in yield and flatter for now...we still do not see an inversion, or at least to say a lasting inversion... 10 years hit 2.07 last week, that is our support... 2 years could get to 1.69 if 6 hits is the view, but if 7 rate hikes get built in, then 1.85 is the objective... We still think 4 and moderating inflation...
10 year treasuries were closed during Asian time for the Emperor's Birthday, but when they opened in London they went from 1.94 to 1.98, and are currently at 1.97..2 year treasuries are now above 1.60 (new 2 year) after having hit 1.62 in the overnight session... More rate hikes are being built into the WIRP curve as we have gone from about 5.5 ,to now close to 6.5 for 2022... When we were asked last night if we thought the Ukraine situation would curtail 50, while we said yes, we still think it is not in this Fed's schedule to move 50, regardless... Nonetheless we will have a much better opinion when we see the text of Powell's testimony to House, which should be released Monday night... Either way, about 34 basis is currently built in to the March hike, we still think 25.
Equities rallied from about 2 am when London opened where the S+P rallied 33 points, and is still up 32 points as we write... S+P futures hit corrective territory yesterday and bounced for now, but we have no faith that the worst is over until we see first Powell next week, and the FOMC release on March 16.. We calculated that we hit about 12% corrective territory yesterday ...Meanwhile Faang continues to trade very poorly and is well in bear market territory, down 23%... And if it breaks the current area, we see Citi talking with an under 5000 level... Not our base case.
Rates and the curve... We continue to see the treasury market moving toward inversion territory 2/5, 2/10, and 5/30... All are at narrow levels... 2/5 is currently 29, we have 27 as support, but if that breaks we are looking at the possibility of 8 and then of course inversion...2/10 is not much different at 36 currently... Clearly a 7 hike regimen by the Fed, which is not our base call, would send that close to inversion territory... That is not what the Fed wants and will likely use their balance sheet in such a way to prevent an inversion, which would trigger recession talk...
Corporate spreads....They are off their recent lows as the equity markets are up today... But we sent a chart around yesterday showing the trends are for wider spreads... This would be consistent with the view that the worst of the equity correction is not over... Yesterday we saw 5 borrowers come to market and have to pay hefty concessions... Meanwhile 5 postponed . Bloomberg reports that the 5 that came weighed that the spreads and markets will get worse and this had to be done now...new issue concessions, which had been minor or negative over the last year, came at 11.7 basis... LQD, the largest IG ETF, is down 6.61% YTD, that is quite a large amount for an IG Fund and it is still February...
Ukraine situation will remain, but the Fed and how they fight inflation is the bigger issue for markets... We have a few Fed speakers today, but we do not see much difference... If equity markets stabilize, rates and the curve will head higher in yield and flatter for now...we still do not see an inversion, or at least to say a lasting inversion... 10 years hit 2.07 last week, that is our support... 2 years could get to 1.69 if 6 hits is the view, but if 7 rate hikes get built in, then 1.85 is the objective... We still think 4 and moderating inflation...
cptthunder said:ProgN said:
Earnings were supposed to be this morning
tZero one of the crypto investment it has named a CEO who is a ex-ICE exec and got a large investment from ICE on top of that
That was the main news I saw. Just go to the Twitter and check out Mark Cohodes
Man Twitter perma'd all my accounts years ago.
My news feed was blasted with material talking about 40%+ bubble, bear market, etc
Had me thinking the same thing
Had me thinking the same thing
... so he's advocating buying bearish ETF's. I think I'll stick to scalping them and that is it!BrokeAssAggie said:
Time to buy the dip
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-is-coming-and-with-it-ways-to-make-money-not-seen-in-40-years-says-this-strategist-11645617305
"For example, the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF SH, +1.15%, which is designed to move in the opposite direction as the S&P 500 on a daily basis, rose 89%. Similarly, the ProShares Short QQQ ETF PSQ, +1.05% rose 96%," he said. Others designed to move at twice the rate the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 SDS, +2.09% and QQQ QID, +2.06% ETFs surged 184% and 210%, respectively, he said.
Leveraged ETFs are a good way to get blown up if you don't have stellar risk control.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Premarket is signaling two way chop today. Maybe it trends, but I think good odds of a gap fill.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
UVXY is probably #1 in blowing up accounts or creating bag holders, lol.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Leveraged ETFs are a good way to get blown up if you don't have stellar risk control.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
OSTK will be interesting today. Right not it's at 47.45, close to the 20-EMA and 10-SMA and 30% higher than its close yesterday. There is EMA resistance at 52.77, which also has a big pivot just above that (54.34). There is EMA support at 42.72. So either way there's an "easy" 10% to run up or down before it gets to the next resistance. I'm leaning to a bit of a pullback, but I will play this one either way. If options premiums are too high, I'm fine with buying/shorting shares. I would likely target a sell before it gets to those support/resistance level just to be cautious because of market crazy volatility.cptthunder said:ProgN said:
Earnings were supposed to be this morning
tZero one of the crypto investment it has named a CEO who is a ex-ICE exec and got a large investment from ICE on top of that
That was the main news I saw. Just go to the Twitter and check out Mark Cohodes
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
$NVDA is at 239.20 in the premarket. If it goes up, it has potential resistance in the 244-249 area so I'd watch it closely there if playing it long, but then could run to 256 or 265. I think the bigger potential may be to the short side. If it gets below 230.44 then I'll play it short, likely buying 220 puts for next week or 225 puts for Friday.
I am currently long $NVDA, with a small amount I bought on Friday. I'll hold that while it makes a decision, but will be quick to cut that position if it heads south on the open.
I am currently long $NVDA, with a small amount I bought on Friday. I'll hold that while it makes a decision, but will be quick to cut that position if it heads south on the open.
Morning fellow degenerates.
I think Russia may start being priced in if Putin stays put in the eastern regions.
I still think we have inflation woes to shake out of this market. I am always long term bullish (meaning I always buy with my long term wealth accounts). Trading account I am still a scared little paper handed *****.
So I am not sure.
I think Russia may start being priced in if Putin stays put in the eastern regions.
I still think we have inflation woes to shake out of this market. I am always long term bullish (meaning I always buy with my long term wealth accounts). Trading account I am still a scared little paper handed *****.
So I am not sure.
The 230 short has massive potential
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
$TSLA is another individual stock I like either way. It hovered around 836 most of the morning, but is at 832 right now. If it gets below yesterday's close, I'm short and it has a lot of potential to the short side. If playing upside, I have resistance levels at 838.5 and 863.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Opened OSTK short 100 shares. Watching very closely though. Probably jumped the gun a bit on that one.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yes. Yes it does. I'll probably turn on videos of chicks washing cars in yoga pants or something if that happens.Irish 2.0 said:
The 230 short has massive potential
Bold move sir, thats a butt load of volume right nowBob Knights Liver said:
Opened OSTK short 100 shares. Watching very closely though. Probably jumped the gun a bit on that one.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Out of the OSTK short. Now back to watching. A bit more patience could have saved me $50 there. Looking for another entry or to confirm and go long.Bob Knights Liver said:
Opened OSTK short 100 shares. Watching very closely though. Probably jumped the gun a bit on that one.
Not playing the opening range, but it's hard, so much green this morning!
I honestly don't understand how it's possible to get banned so often from pretty much everything.ProgN said:cptthunder said:ProgN said:
Earnings were supposed to be this morning
tZero one of the crypto investment it has named a CEO who is a ex-ICE exec and got a large investment from ICE on top of that
That was the main news I saw. Just go to the Twitter and check out Mark Cohodes
Man Twitter perma'd all my accounts years ago.
based on that article are you now playing in the "short ETF" and "ultra Short" SP 500 market?BrokeAssAggie said:
Time to buy the dip
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-is-coming-and-with-it-ways-to-make-money-not-seen-in-40-years-says-this-strategist-11645617305
that sounds both lucrative and extremely risky
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I probably missed the chance to go long early, with resistance at $52.77. I'll go short if we get below the opening price of $46.90.Bob Knights Liver said:Out of the OSTK short. Now back to watching. A bit more patience could have saved me $50 there. Looking for another entry or to confirm and go long.Bob Knights Liver said:
Opened OSTK short 100 shares. Watching very closely though. Probably jumped the gun a bit on that one.
10 year treasuries up, just a bit of a warning.
been buying $1000 a day for the last few weeks because I am long and looking at retirement planning not day trading.SF2004 said:
Morning fellow degenerates.
I think Russia may start being priced in if Putin stays put in the eastern regions.
I still think we have inflation woes to shake out of this market. I am always long term bullish (meaning I always buy with my long term wealth accounts). Trading account I am still a scared little paper handed *****.
So I am not sure.
on the other hand, I would be very hesitant in this market to think that it will go either up or down on a short term basis. there are just too many factors at play and the market is fairly disconnected from corporate earnings
what happens if Putin takes Kyiv on Friday?
how close are we to seeing an inversion of the yield curve?AG 2000' said:
10 year treasuries up, just a bit of a warning.
not enough people pay attention to that.
wasn't there a death cross last week?
I have been buying actual shares long of NVDA the last two monthsBob Knights Liver said:
$NVDA is at 239.20 in the premarket. If it goes up, it has potential resistance in the 244-249 area so I'd watch it closely there if playing it long, but then could run to 256 or 265. I think the bigger potential may be to the short side. If it gets below 230.44 then I'll play it short, likely buying 220 puts for next week or 225 puts for Friday.
I am currently long $NVDA, with a small amount I bought on Friday. I'll hold that while it makes a decision, but will be quick to cut that position if it heads south on the open.
it has been so beaten down, but is a decent company well positioned to take advantage of technology improvements over the next decade.
really need this stock to outperform in the next 10 years!
LMCane said:been buying $1000 a day for the last few weeks because I am long and looking at retirement planning not day trading.SF2004 said:
Morning fellow degenerates.
I think Russia may start being priced in if Putin stays put in the eastern regions.
I still think we have inflation woes to shake out of this market. I am always long term bullish (meaning I always buy with my long term wealth accounts). Trading account I am still a scared little paper handed *****.
So I am not sure.
on the other hand, I would be very hesitant in this market to think that it will go either up or down on a short term basis. there are just too many factors at play and the market is fairly disconnected from corporate earnings
Is it though? The S&P is down 10% so far in 2022, that feels in line with what we've seen time and again on earnings over the past month (big corrective moves).
Featured Stories
See All
14:22
9h ago
1.8k
A&M's season ends with microcosmic second-half collapse in Las Vegas
by Olin Buchanan
Learned, Loved, Loathed: USC 35, Texas A&M 31 (2024 Las Vegas Bowl)
by Olin Buchanan
Terence Kitchens
Did Miami coach know Ward wasn't going to play in 2nd half?
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
9
BoxingAg84
Did Miami coach know Ward wasn't going to play in 2nd half?
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
9
satexas
Did Miami coach know Ward wasn't going to play in 2nd half?
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
8