We gave up $400 of about $2,300 in profit since we started 3 weeks ago.
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Last: 37 min ago by ProgN
ProgN said:Alas, if war occurs then we need Gus and the cutoffs, stained wife beater, blown out boots and Copenhagen to save us. I'll PM you my address bro. I'll deploy the redneck bat signal if there's war. Help us FJ43, You're our only hope.FJ43 said:
Y'all did it again. Looks like I need to loan Gus out soon.
The official SORT (Special Operations Response Team) market rally hat.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
The only bad trade I made was $SHOP. I thought max downside was $750 on it.
I'm going to wear this all week.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
We gave up $400 of about $2,300 in profit since we started 3 weeks ago.
You haven't lost near enough for the clubhouse brother.
J/K good job.
FJ43 said:ProgN said:Alas, if war occurs then we need Gus and the cutoffs, stained wife beater, blown out boots and Copenhagen to save us. I'll PM you my address bro. I'll deploy the redneck bat signal if there's war. Help us FJ43, You're our only hope.FJ43 said:
Y'all did it again. Looks like I need to loan Gus out soon.
The official SORT (Special Operations Response Team) market rally hat.
Gus is a superstar if he can keep Russia quiet until Tuesday
Ag CPA said:Put your remaining $49k in a money market account for the next month and you will have a better return than 80% of the posters on this thread.$30,000 Millionaire said:
50K account:
Not that great of a week.
- Profit on CENX (about $170)
- Profit on TTD (about $230)
- Stopped on XSP and VXX plays (-$30 on VXX, -$150 on XSP)
- Collected premium on DKNG ($90 this week $155 total). Our net cost basis is about $20 on this, so not horrible. I'd like to exit on some gap fill retracement next week
- Collected premium on APA ($220). We are underwater still by about $1 per share or $200, we can work with this and I don't think the energy market is done
- Loss on $SHOP (-$400)
- KO is in profit, about $100
- NEM is in profit and we sold the 66C for next week. It will be about $300 in profit if we get assigned
- MTTR we are taking assignment on, so we will be underwater about $0.30 per share or $90 on 300 shares. That isn't horrible and we can work with that
- PLTR we are taking assignment on with a base of $11.68, which puts us about $120 total under water on that, but we can also work with that
Wins: $710
Losses: ($580)
Unrealized Loss: ($1,010)Unrealized Gain: $400
- $420 on DKNG
- $120 on PLTR
- $90 on MTTR
- $380 on APA
- $100 on KO
- $300 on NEM
Net position: 710 - 580 - 1010 + 400 = ($480)
I think the positive thing is we are getting bottom basement prices on MTTR and PLTR. They could go lower, but these are not bad spots to take entries. Secondly, having a net difference of <1% week to week in a week like this one isn't horrible, and we own the shares in all cases.
I'll follow 30k to Valhalla. As for the FJ household we trust his trades. It's just math.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43
Joined:
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Posts:
12,249
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You all are getting too bearish. We probably spike down to 4270 and then climb up to 4800 for the mother of all double tops.
gougler08 said:FJ43 said:ProgN said:Alas, if war occurs then we need Gus and the cutoffs, stained wife beater, blown out boots and Copenhagen to save us. I'll PM you my address bro. I'll deploy the redneck bat signal if there's war. Help us FJ43, You're our only hope.FJ43 said:
Y'all did it again. Looks like I need to loan Gus out soon.
The official SORT (Special Operations Response Team) market rally hat.
Gus is a superstar if he can keep Russia quiet until Tuesday
Ummmmmm
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:Ag CPA said:Put your remaining $49k in a money market account for the next month and you will have a better return than 80% of the posters on this thread.$30,000 Millionaire said:
50K account:
Not that great of a week.
- Profit on CENX (about $170)
- Profit on TTD (about $230)
- Stopped on XSP and VXX plays (-$30 on VXX, -$150 on XSP)
- Collected premium on DKNG ($90 this week $155 total). Our net cost basis is about $20 on this, so not horrible. I'd like to exit on some gap fill retracement next week
- Collected premium on APA ($220). We are underwater still by about $1 per share or $200, we can work with this and I don't think the energy market is done
- Loss on $SHOP (-$400)
- KO is in profit, about $100
- NEM is in profit and we sold the 66C for next week. It will be about $300 in profit if we get assigned
- MTTR we are taking assignment on, so we will be underwater about $0.30 per share or $90 on 300 shares. That isn't horrible and we can work with that
- PLTR we are taking assignment on with a base of $11.68, which puts us about $120 total under water on that, but we can also work with that
Wins: $710
Losses: ($580)
Unrealized Loss: ($1,010)Unrealized Gain: $400
- $420 on DKNG
- $120 on PLTR
- $90 on MTTR
- $380 on APA
- $100 on KO
- $300 on NEM
Net position: 710 - 580 - 1010 + 400 = ($480)
I think the positive thing is we are getting bottom basement prices on MTTR and PLTR. They could go lower, but these are not bad spots to take entries. Secondly, having a net difference of <1% week to week in a week like this one isn't horrible, and we own the shares in all cases.
I'll follow 30k to Valhalla. As for the FJ household we trust his trades. It's just math.
ProgN said:Not spidey sense, I'm a voracious reader of news. China has been violating Taiwan's airspace with multiple fighters and bombers, their last sortie was 39 planes, for the last 2 months. These were occurring weekly until the Olympics started. Putin and Xi had a very public event solidifying their mutual interests, allies. I think we have/had 2 carrier groups in the region but Xi knows Biden is weak and vulnerable politically. Once Russia rolls over Ukraine, I expect Xi to move on Taiwan, that's when SHTF for the markets. Olympics end on Sunday. I hope I'm wrong, but it's lining up the way I've posted.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Wow. You really think China is coming for Taiwan? Has long been rumored but never thought it would happen. US gonna have to fight for Taiwan though. We need those chips.
I did see someone buying 75P like 1 mo out on TSM. Maybe your spidey sense is locked in.
My high school best friend has lived in Taiwan since 2007. For what it's worth, he says life is no different then any other time and nobody is "on alert" or anything. He says they've always lived with the threat of China around the corner and that it's not different now than any other day.
Just passing on what I've heard.
Cool, i hope so
I hope you are right, maybe Russia backs down and we hit the seasonal March buying period strong. But I think we test the January lows on ES at a minimum.
I would bet we bounce below January's lows. These sell offs the last couple days have been pretty violent, but I'm also going off OA's comments. Fine with me, I'll keep scalping puts 
The chart in log scale doesn't look as scary:
What is scary and not really sustainable imo although I really am not an expert in this stuff:
What is scary and not really sustainable imo although I really am not an expert in this stuff:
MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN NORTH OF REBEL-HELD CITY OF DONETSK IN EASTERN UKRAINE - REUTERS WITNESS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 19, 2022
If Russia invades on Monday, President's Day, and Trump launches Truth Social the same day, watch the press say he coordinated with his buddy Putin to do it on the same day.
Spoiler: Russia won't invade Ukraine and we won't get a 50bps rate hike next month. Sorry bears.
ProgN said:
If Russia invades on Monday, President's Day, and Trump launches Truth Social the same day, watch the press say he coordinated with his buddy Putin to do it on the same day.
I wish I were joking….my co worker is ultra liberal and he is already convinced Putin and Xi are doing this all to get republicans elected in a few months. He says there is no other explanation and he says Biden is just unlucky with inflation.
Triple_Bagger
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Posts:
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Did you tell your employee to submit for a drug test immediately?planoaggie123 said:ProgN said:
If Russia invades on Monday, President's Day, and Trump launches Truth Social the same day, watch the press say he coordinated with his buddy Putin to do it on the same day.
I wish I were joking….my co worker is ultra liberal and he is already convinced Putin and Xi are doing this all to get republicans elected in a few months. He says there is no other explanation and he says Biden is just unlucky with inflation.
I feel this needs to be said. Stay long and keep buying in your long term accounts.
planoaggie123 said:ProgN said:
If Russia invades on Monday, President's Day, and Trump launches Truth Social the same day, watch the press say he coordinated with his buddy Putin to do it on the same day.
I wish I were joking….my co worker is ultra liberal and he is already convinced Putin and Xi are doing this all to get republicans elected in a few months. He says there is no other explanation and he says Biden is just unlucky with inflation.
Unlucky
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Let's see if he nails this. Made a lot of money in 21 to and from SPY 416.32. I'm all for round 2.
Have a great weekend! This week, #ES_F broke down major triangle pattern & failed to reclaim its 200dma. All eyes now on big H&S everyone sees
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) February 19, 2022
Next week: Looking to test neckline at 4280-4260. Bounce there but unless bulls clear 4395 (bottoms in), 4160s coming. Detail below $SPX pic.twitter.com/gnSPy5OPVX
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
yeah what Prog said and PCR tests work best if you insert it rectally.planoaggie123 said:ProgN said:
If Russia invades on Monday, President's Day, and Trump launches Truth Social the same day, watch the press say he coordinated with his buddy Putin to do it on the same day.
I wish I were joking….my co worker is ultra liberal and he is already convinced Putin and Xi are doing this all to get republicans elected in a few months. He says there is no other explanation and he says Biden is just unlucky with inflation.
LMAO
I'm going to post more about this tomorrow. I have been thinking about our current predicament and I talked to an older trader I know that's been in the game since the 70s. Our current situation reminds me a lot of 2007/2008 even though the common comparison is 2000/2001.
Think about it:
- easy credit
- not hard to get a job
- any idiot succeeds at investing in anything
- insane asset prices
- $4 gas
- bank stocks at ATH
- high consumption and high consumer confidence
- high government debt burden
Think about it:
- easy credit
- not hard to get a job
- any idiot succeeds at investing in anything
- insane asset prices
- $4 gas
- bank stocks at ATH
- high consumption and high consumer confidence
- high government debt burden
How long and extended of a correction did he think is coming? The difference between the crises in the early 2000s and now is that our federal debt as percentage of GDP is so much higher now and money printing/govt bailout is not likely gonna be there.
The DJIA looks absolutely horrible right now. It closed literally on the neckline. Failure of a rally now and we could be looking at 20% further correction or possibly more.
I'm looking at DXD and some other inverse dow funds to buy shares and options once the reversal is confirmed.
The DJIA looks absolutely horrible right now. It closed literally on the neckline. Failure of a rally now and we could be looking at 20% further correction or possibly more.
I'm looking at DXD and some other inverse dow funds to buy shares and options once the reversal is confirmed.
The actual selling tends to be "fast". The puke to bottom was about 6 months. September to March.
I know SPX/SPY/ES_F is more closely followed, so does the DJIA even really matter any more? Pattern set up on there is eye popping.
Of course, but it's 30 stocks and they're economic bellweathers. I trade the Dow often
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I'm going to post more about this tomorrow. I have been thinking about our current predicament and I talked to an older trader I know that's been in the game since the 70s. Our current situation reminds me a lot of 2007/2008 even though the common comparison is 2000/2001.
Think about it:
- easy credit
- not hard to get a job
- any idiot succeeds at investing in anything
- insane asset prices
- $4 gas
- bank stocks at ATH
- high consumption and high consumer confidence
- high government debt burden
Funny thing is, 2008 was the finish of the nearly decade long correction started in 2000. Exact same way COVID in 2020 was the finish of a correction that started in 2018.
I keep saying it, but bulls need to just let 4100 happen and then go strong. Bears will give up. But if bulls keep being premature and melting up, bears are going to get 4000.
Was wondering there are more significant drivers of Russia's drive to invade Ukraine. Country is in financial turmoil. 9% inflation for over a year, high unemployment rate (I saw one figure that nearly half the country was not working despite a 5% unemployment rate). I wonder if this is driving it more than some notion of oil, or NATO inclusion, etc.
This is all I have to offer today
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