I love reading the board at night.

Let's go!
Elation
Cliff jumping
A "F" off
Calmness
What do we do now

ProgN said:

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FJ43 said:

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I love reading the board at night.

Let's go!
Elation
Cliff jumping
A "F" off
Calmness
What do we do now

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When is your project finished?

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Exit is 3rd/4th 2023. However, early stages consume most of my time. Should bleed off later into and through 3rd/4th this year to where I can actively trade again. Hopefully I can be in manage mode by then.

Y'all being able to actively trade everyday is killing me. Didn't realize how much I loved it. I miss the camaraderie big time.

when my gamma was negative, we never got dessert.

Liquidity is gone (as should be expected with QE tap turning off). ES mini order book is the thinnest its been since March 2020.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Can someone please explain how the market puking is a function of liquidity? This makes no sense to me.

I think of price of an equity or an index as a function of supply-demand. I don't exactly understand how liquidity is the cause of the market pullbacks?

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Few comments:

- Liquidity allows for smooth functioning of any markets.
- An excess of liquidity creates an environment of asset price inflation. I.e. More money chasing same assets.
- Equity prices are a function of supply demand
- Indices, more accurately Index ETF's don't work based on supply demand.

FJ43 said:

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ProgN said:

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FJ43 said:

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I love reading the board at night.

Let's go!
Elation
Cliff jumping
A "F" off
Calmness
What do we do now

---

When is your project finished?

---

Exit is 3rd/4th 2023. However, early stages consume most of my time. Should bleed off later into and through 3rd/4th this year to where I can actively trade again. Hopefully I can be in manage mode by then.

Y'all being able to actively trade everyday is killing me. Didn't realize how much I loved it. I miss the camaraderie big time.

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FJ checking his phone but can't trade.

I think QE is done. Once this accelerated taper finishes, I don't see them restarting treasury purchases anytime soon.
The other form of tightening which is hiking interest rates is what remains to be seen. i.e. what the pace of hikes is going to be. IMO, anything less than 50bps in March is going to be seen as Dovish.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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I think QE is done. Once this accelerated taper finishes, I don't see them restarting treasury purchases anytime soon.
The other form of tightening which is hiking interest rates is what remains to be seen. i.e. what the pace of hikes is going to be. IMO, anything less than 50bps in March is going to be seen as Dovish.

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Agreed, and 50 bps is really what they should do. I'm more concerned about China and Taiwan than I am interest rates.

bhanacik said:

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What plays do you play off of when referencing VIX? Specific stocks or indices?

I've noticed a few stocks are very correlated to the VIX and some not as much. SNAP being one that seems very correlated

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Mostly SPY and QQQ, because I don't end up with wide bid/ ask or other issues like NVDA being held down (to kill premium).

I rarely do 0dte b/c the premium burn kills you unless it's a very quick scalp or a tiny lotto. I go out about a week and out of the money.

I also chart VIX in the morning after the first hour to see if I can pick up on a trend (wedge, megaphone, channel, etc.). Then if I see VIX bounce off my trend lines I know I'm onto something. I'll post a chart after the morning shakeout if I notice something.

also the 2nd morning dip has been very trade-able lately, not saying it always will. Look for the W and ideally 2nd dip has a higher low.

Have you positioned yourself bearish? Or significantly derisked and in cash? Or just trading as normal but being aware of significant downside risk?

*Peloton's John Foley to Step Down as CEO, Become Executive Chair, Company Says -- WSJ$PTON

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 8, 2022

*Peloton to Cut Roughly 2,800 Jobs or 20% of Its Corporate Positions -- WSJ

*Peloton to Cut Roughly $800M in Annual Costs and Reduce Capital Expenditures by $150M -- WSJ

*Peloton to Drop Plans for New Factory in Ohio -- WSJ$PTON

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 8, 2022

Pfizer expects $54 billion in 2022 sales on Covid vaccine and treatment pill

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/covid-pfizer-pfe-earnings-q4-2021.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

All about the Benjamins.

Peloton slashes full-year revenue outlook to $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion from $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/peloton-slashes-full-year-revenue-outlook-to-3point7-billion-to-3point8-billion-from-4point4-billion-to-4point8-billion.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

Oil giant BP reports highest profit in 8 years on soaring commodity prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/bp-earnings-q4-2021.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

IIRC, Gougler works for BP. You getting a fat raise and bonus this year?

ProgN said:

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Oil giant BP reports highest profit in 8 years on soaring commodity prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/bp-earnings-q4-2021.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

IIRC, Gougler works for BP. You getting a fat raise and bonus this year?

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I'm at SHEL (cause we can't be Dutch anymore), but yes...very good bonus this year. Merit raise data comes out next week I believe but I'd expect that to be pretty good too, especially seeing as we got 0 raise or bonus last year

gougler08 said:

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ProgN said:

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Oil giant BP reports highest profit in 8 years on soaring commodity prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/bp-earnings-q4-2021.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

IIRC, Gougler works for BP. You getting a fat raise and bonus this year?

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I'm at SHEL (cause we can't be Dutch anymore), but yes...very good bonus this year. Merit raise data comes out next week I believe but I'd expect that to be pretty good too, especially seeing as we got 0 raise or bonus last year

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yea, its a very good year this year