I don't see us having a major pullback, housing prices IMO will continue to go up as long as out of staters keep coming here and that has not slowed down unfortunate

This could go one of two ways.

Essentially the housing market has under built homes since 2008. The number I have heard tossed around in 3M homes though I don't have any citation on that. That would mean current prices are around to stay. Toss in 200,000 illegals a month crossing the border placing demand side pressures on the market and this baby is going up.

The big IED in the road ahead is inflation and forbearance. At it's high point 12% of US home owners were in forbearance or 30 days past due on their mortgage thanks to congresses dumbass covid measures. The rate is now around 5%.

Here's the thing though, a lot of people who went into forbearance didn't lose their jobs they were just gaming the system. They bought cars, boats, RVs ect and are now stretched thin. If the economy ****s the bed we are likely to see a massive number of repos. This will send home values spiraling downward as comps crater.

If you want to know how your zip code stands check out this link:
https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/mortgage-analytics-and-performance-dashboard.aspx

Land is finite. You need a place to live. Don't sweat it.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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What is everyone's opinion of housing market?

Wife and I looked at a home tonight we are interested in. Have been renting while paying off loans and now only cheap debt remains.

House tonight is listed at $800K and is right at 5,000. sq ft. 3 car garage and pool/hot tub on .41 acres. It's in the city where I practice and we ideally we wanna stay in this area. Good neighborhood and house built in 2007, so fairly recent.

Is there a big pullback coming in housing? Number of folks discussing it actively on Twitter today so am just curious.

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That's a no brainer…go for it. Money is super cheap right now too. Even if there is a correction, it will only be temporary. Home prices are also very sticky; they will rise in good times, but don't really drop like everyone expects them to do.

Really excited to see these results in action. So far, I'm winning more than I'm losing, which is saying a lot for my history. Still, I think I can be better about taking profits more regularly. I decided instead of 5% stocks for every 10% gained, I'll base it off my target price. If I'm intending to make 20% total, I'll completely exit by then.

SAVA is going to have to make a decision here soon. It's running out of runway.

Of all the stocks I've been watching, I suppose I'm most interested in the DHX reversal that finally showed up. DRBG also has a nice chart if it bounces off the 200ema line. I'll probably have to sell something else to break free some capital, but will likely just stick with DHX for now.

Mornun gents!

Mixed markets around the horn
EU & Asia mixed
US early slightly red
VIX wants 25

Be safe trading this week and let the trades come to you.
Cash is a position and manage risk

Wont get to play much at all this week but will let alerts possibly trigger a trade or two from the phone app.

Trade wisely!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

---

What is everyone's opinion of housing market?

Wife and I looked at a home tonight we are interested in. Have been renting while paying off loans and now only cheap debt remains.

House tonight is listed at $800K and is right at 5,000. sq ft. 3 car garage and pool/hot tub on .41 acres. It's in the city where I practice and we ideally we wanna stay in this area. Good neighborhood and house built in 2007, so fairly recent.

Is there a big pullback coming in housing? Number of folks discussing it actively on Twitter today so am just curious.

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If in the South, do it and don't think twice. If up North, don't do it.

There will be a real estate crash up North in the next few years.

ProgN said:

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Does anyone have one of those tweets that shows the big earnings coming out this week?

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#earnings for the weekhttps://t.co/lObOE0dgsr$PFE $ON $TSN $CLF $DIS $PTON $HAS $CVS $UBER $AFRM $APPS $BP $TWTR $ENPH $KO $CRNC $TWLO $PEP $AMG $DDOG $CRNT $CGC $COTY $CNA $CMG $BAP $CHGG $ENR $TTWO $ZBH $NSSC $NET $GTES $HOG $AZN $TEVA $AMGN $CVE $SYY $PM $UAA $FISV $CRSR pic.twitter.com/PTDFhuFaFq

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) February 5, 2022

You going to build a golf course or is that just giving all your kids more room to play?

If you build a golf course then I propose everyone in here receives a free lifetime membership.

BrokeAssAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Anyone buying Texas land right now? Inflation hedge? Seems there is no such thing as cheap Texas land lol

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Not yet, but I might be in the market soon. I really want ~200 to 300 acres within an hour of BCS.

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Username definitely does not check out

Looks like the Central Banks of the world tightening is starting to crush peripheral European bonds..... 10 year Italian bonds are back another 13 basis this morning while Greek 10 years are 27 higher in yield...Greek 20 years are back 35 basis... Italian 10 years have doubled in yield since November... And with the ECB backpedaling, there is no reason they should be lower in yield than 10 year treasuries, basically they are about the same for now until either the ECB pivots again... Greek 10 years have risen 5 x from .50 basis last summer to 2.5 today...

Employment report... Either you believe it or not, but you can't have it both ways... We have never had much faith in how the Department of Labor uses seasonal's and birth/death rates to adjust numbers... Nothing could have been more clear about that in Friday's numbers... No one was close... The two we follow more closely, GS and MS, were off by 700,000... Really, the smartest groups of economists were off that much? Or was the number wrong?... way you can't have it both ways... Either the economy is stronger than they portrayed over the last year, showing consistent strength, or their current census seasonals were plain wrong... But lets look it both ways... The stronger number tells us that the US economy is not going into recession any time soon, and even with a Fed mistake of over-tightening or dovish tightening, the US economy will continue to head higher...This was the message that the equity market picked up on Friday... And after a choppy session overnight, we are higher as we write... Take the employment report one step further, if hiring continues to be that strong and more people are coming into the pool of workers, we SHOULD SEE THE SUPPLY CHAINS IMPROVE...which will mitigate inflation....as for treasuries and other spread products, we see weakness ahead... There is a light at the end of the tunnel, but not today..

Rates...all of our support levels were hit Friday...1.31 2 years..1.77 5 years and 1.92 10 years... They are all hovering near those levels now...WE DO NOT THINK THEY HOLD....REMEMBER THERE ARE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF 10 YEAR PUTS AT THE 127 STRIKE LEVEL THAT EXPIRE FEBRUARY 18... That indicates to us of further weakness ahead... Could this be the first 10 year auction in awhile where we see a 2% coupon?... The odds are 50/50 right now....with Central banks on the hawkish path, with the BOE and ECB pivots last week... We see higher rates ahead... We will do the chart work later today..

Equities... JPM was out this morning recommending equities, we will send the BB link... Simultaneously, Mike Wilson of MS, still sees weakness ahead for equities...Kostin of GS likes small caps, but others see weakness ahead...as for us, we bought some equities at the 15% corrective level on the Nasdaq, but so far that is a push at best... We have powder dry and will look for weakness ahead... Key time frames is the Fed March meeting... Fed meetings always seem to be pivot points...

Credit... Expect another 20 billion of issuance like last week... But wider spreads are indicated by the charts... Both IG and HY are wider this morning... We see that trend continuing until the Fed meeting... But if equities rebound significantly, that could alter our view...

Inflation... Fed is way behind the curve... No question about that, regardless of what Fed governors say... Nonetheless we have an expected CPI number this week of 7.2% YOY... While many like Ruskin of DB, who said over the weekend that " unless you think inflation comes down rapidly due to factors that are not related to tighter policy , THEN THE FED IS MILES BEHIND THE CURVE...