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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Spoony Love • 12:01p, 1/22/22
AG
Spoony Love said:
This could be a big catalyst for further down territory.

$30k it just may be WW3 soon


Both Russia and China are going to use the weakness/corruption of our current administration to make their moves. A good time to do it is during an election.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:13p, 1/22/22
AG
China won't invade Taiwan. They are patient and play the long game. They still want to do business with the US and Europe. They're greedy and it won't look to kill their own. They can keep up constant pressure until they get their way.

Russia will probably invade Ukraine. We won't do anything and neither will NATO. We won't have direct military conflict with Russia. It's bad for everyone.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to ProgN • 12:23p, 1/22/22
ProgN said:
Max Stonetrail said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Who were you before? I haven't figured out you and Max Stonesomething after the last round of name changes.
Max Stonetrail has always been Max Stonetrail. I haven't been posting here that long. Not an older poster that changed names.
Did you just refer to yourself in the 3rd person?

Lol. Max, I guess you jumped in here so quick I figured you were a veteran that had a name change or a permanent trip to band camp.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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2:24p, 1/22/22
To help frame where we might go next week, look back to that last week in Feb 2020. Even with the looming pandemic and after a week where the SPY saw an 8% drop on over 1.2billion shares volume, we opened up and then ran over 3.5% green on Mar 2. The next two days had higher highs and lows before the fear really kicked in. We ended the first week of March up a bit even though SPY still had another 30% to give up before bottoming out.

I don't think what we have now is nearly as powerful as that early pandemic crash. It does serve to show a strong green run happening from dip buying, even in the face of massive selling. It also shows us a bull trap of a run that pulled many back in before punishing them again.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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3:29p, 1/22/22
If u really wanna doom and gloom some more, check out SPX.

If you consider the September low as completion of the first shoulder, the rally into the December as the head, then after a little more selling, we may rally back some. I'm gonna guess like 4480 or 4500 or something before pulling back. This would line up with a third shoulder. That would set up a monster H&S pattern (spanning 6-9 months), roughly 2x in size what we saw over the last 1-2 wks.

This may be a month or so away. Everyone has been calling for a March wipeout. This timeline seems to hold.

Hate to be a doom and gloomer and permabear so to speak, but these patterns are just classic set ups for significant shifts in money.

Now, things could go entirely in a different direction, but pattern recognition is key. We need to all be ready.

One of my colleagues at work has amassed an enormous amt of wealth and is always reluctant to sell. He's long TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, and a handful of other mJor players. My guess is he's had $3-5M wiped out in the past couple weeks. I feel horrible for him.
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 3:37p, 1/22/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
If u really wanna doom and gloom some more, check out SPX.

If you consider the September low as completion of the first shoulder, the rally into the December as the head, then after a little more selling, we may rally back some. I'm gonna guess like 4480 or 4500 or something before pulling back. This would line up with a third shoulder. That would set up a monster H&S pattern (spanning 6-9 months), roughly 2x in size what we saw over the last 1-2 wks.

This may be a month or so away. Everyone has been calling for a March wipeout. This timeline seems to hold.

Hate to be a doom and gloomer and permabear so to speak, but these patterns are just classic set ups for significant shifts in money.

Now, things could go entirely in a different direction, but pattern recognition is key. We need to all be ready.

One of my colleagues at work has amassed an enormous amt of wealth and is always reluctant to sell. He's long TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, and a handful of other mJor players. My guess is he's had $3-5M wiped out in the past couple weeks. I feel horrible for him.


Thankfully he's only wiped out that amount if he sells now. His best choice at this point is to hold and ride it back up.

I'm not a bear but I do agree about pain coming. That's why I'm only holding what I had in WWR and recently picked up TTD. Everything else is cash and I'm using a small bit of that cash to play options. Puts were great for me last week.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:27p, 1/22/22
AG
Don't. We will be at 4800 within 18 months
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:10p, 1/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
If u really wanna doom and gloom some more, check out SPX.

If you consider the September low as completion of the first shoulder, the rally into the December as the head, then after a little more selling, we may rally back some. I'm gonna guess like 4480 or 4500 or something before pulling back. This would line up with a third shoulder. That would set up a monster H&S pattern (spanning 6-9 months), roughly 2x in size what we saw over the last 1-2 wks.

This may be a month or so away. Everyone has been calling for a March wipeout. This timeline seems to hold.

Hate to be a doom and gloomer and permabear so to speak, but these patterns are just classic set ups for significant shifts in money.

Now, things could go entirely in a different direction, but pattern recognition is key. We need to all be ready.

One of my colleagues at work has amassed an enormous amt of wealth and is always reluctant to sell. He's long TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, and a handful of other mJor players. My guess is he's had $3-5M wiped out in the past couple weeks. I feel horrible for him.



Sorry Doc, I couldn't resist.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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5:21p, 1/22/22
I processed the outcome of the market over 14,000,000 times, and the outcome does not look good.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:51p, 1/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I processed the outcome of the market over 14,000,000 times, and the outcome does not look good.
Just ONE!

I love you Doc.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 6:30p, 1/22/22
For the record, I liquidated my crypto today. Lost nearly $5K, but I didn't see it coming back. I nearly did last week for what would have been about a $1000 loss.

It started to feel more and more like tulipomania to me.

Then, those Winklevoss a-holes are spinning BTC and saying "now's the chance to buy BTC at $35K again…don't miss the opportunity ".

That was it me for me. Most bearish chart of any on the planet and they are pumping it hard. Done.

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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 6:42p, 1/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
For the record, I liquidated my crypto today. Lost nearly $5K, but I didn't see it coming back. I nearly did last week for what would have been about a $1000 loss.

It started to feel more and more like tulipomania to me.

Then, those Winklevoss a-holes are spinning BTC and saying "now's the chance to buy BTC at $35K again…don't miss the opportunity ".

That was it me for me. Most bearish chart of any on the planet and they are pumping it hard. Done.

A lot of people make money in crypto but it's not my game, that's why I didn't say what you should do. I agree that it reminds me up the tulip craze, ostrich eggs (for you old Ag country folk), etc. It's not backed by anything and if the US, China, EU, and Russia prevent crypto transactions within their borders, then even BTC will go to zero in a millisecond. The US, China, EU will be launching their own digital currency. When they do, why wouldn't they eliminate their competition by outlawing transactions?

I'm probably wrong in that belief but I don't care enough about crypto to really look into it. If you're in it, go make your paper, it's just not for me. I do fine trading stocks.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to ProgN • 6:49p, 1/22/22
Emu eggs, right? Not ostrich? At least in west Texas.
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:58p, 1/22/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
Emu eggs, right? Not ostrich? At least in west Texas.


Both
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Brewmaster
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9:00p, 1/22/22
AG
decreasing volume, hasn't really cracked yet, but AAPL puts may be a good play soon.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:14a, 1/23/22
This is the time where this group of traders needs to shine and help Ole another. Sadly, I missed most of the run up, but good money can be made to the downside. In fact, shorts can often be more lucrative because the prices drop so fast.

I'm gonna spend a few hours this afternoon looking at some good plays and options chains.

We need to short companies that haven't been shredded yet. I like the AAPL play. The giants are always the last to fall.

I'll show some this afternoon.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:18a, 1/23/22
I would appreciate it. I've played short maybe 1/100 of the times I've played long and probably not very well at that. Reading people with more experience being short would help me understand that mindset a little better, how they filter out setups and how they take profits and set stops.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:27a, 1/23/22
AG
Did the same. Mostly because I could never actually see the utility in crypto as it has right now. I absolutely despise the digital dollar and I think it's extremely dangerous to liberty, but until these coins actually become tradable, I don't see the point.

Thoughts and prayers to the investors in Voyager. Love their app, but I imagine they are feeling hosed right now.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:36a, 1/23/22
As I see it, it starts with a chart that hasn't yet cratered, an overvalued idea at levels never previously seen. My plan is to give it a little runway (maybe 3 month out options) and a little OTM.

Names I'm thinking include CAR, SHW, COST, AMZN (not sure I can afford lol!), AAPL. Remember….CAR was $10 after COVID hit. Now at $175. That's probably a $20 stock. Wishing I had been short since it touched $500 tho!!

I'll look for others this afternoon.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:43a, 1/23/22
Remember for any of these pricey ones you could use put spreads. I'd think of it like I use call spreads to lessen cap inv for playing big names like TSLA and AAPL to the long side.
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mazag08
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:54a, 1/23/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
This is the time where this group of traders needs to shine and help Ole another. Sadly, I missed most of the run up, but good money can be made to the downside. In fact, shorts can often be more lucrative because the prices drop so fast.

I'm gonna spend a few hours this afternoon looking at some good plays and options chains.

We need to short companies that haven't been shredded yet. I like the AAPL play. The giants are always the last to fall.

I'll show some this afternoon.


Just be careful. Still just a small correction within a long term bull market. And surprises in bull markets almost always come to the upside (what we know as sudden reversal and melt up when downside seems evident).
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McInnis 03
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10:44a, 1/23/22
AG
I'm the worst short side trader in history. I'm sidelined
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:48a, 1/23/22
Not as easy as rolling dice, but if move is of high magnitude, amazing wealth can be generated. NFLX gave away 2 yrs of market cap in 1 month! That is enormous!

We just need to find the ones left on the edge of the cliff.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 11:17a, 1/23/22
McInnis 03 said:
I'm the worst short side trader in history. I'm sidelined

So you're saying if we go into a 6-month long bear market you're going to stop trading? When did you start writing fantasy-fiction.
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Philip J Fry
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11:39a, 1/23/22
AG
Take any stock I suggest you go long in and short it. You'll be up 30% in no time.
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MRB10
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 12:06p, 1/23/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
For the record, I liquidated my crypto today. Lost nearly $5K, but I didn't see it coming back. I nearly did last week for what would have been about a $1000 loss.

It started to feel more and more like tulipomania to me.

Then, those Winklevoss a-holes are spinning BTC and saying "now's the chance to buy BTC at $35K again…don't miss the opportunity ".

That was it me for me. Most bearish chart of any on the planet and they are pumping it hard. Done.



I'd encourage you to save this post and check in on it in 3, 6, and 9 months from now. I'll be interested to hear if your opinion is the same.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to MRB10 • 12:12p, 1/23/22
It'll Be on my mind forever.

My wife's uncle is very heavy crypto and when he finds out i dumped all my Chainlink he'll be less than thrilled. He pushed me to buy 1 yr ago and I resisted selling last spring to avoid taxes….now I get some write offs instead.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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12:20p, 1/23/22
To show my appreciation to all of you, I bought a subscription so I could show some stuff I worked on today. When you're entire o-line and RB's are driving Range Rovers and and Mercedes SLK's, you can throw me a tip of the cap.

Anyhow, here's a list of a few things I put together this morning. These are largely companies that are teetering but not yet fallen off. I didn't include AMZN cause I'm not wealthy enough to even throw a deep OTM weekly option at it. Though, if timed well, it would pay fat. This list is not comprehensive and certainly not fool proof but it's good for thought.

I need to go back and add MA. This is another company that may be a good short candidate. Earnings Thursday.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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12:23p, 1/23/22
Also, here's an interesting chart I found yesterday. QQQ May not be done yet. Possible relief bounce early this week, but plenty of money to be still be made on the short side.

Remember the wise words of Isaac Newton when he lost his wealth to the South Seas Trading Company: "I can calculate the movements of celestial bodies, but I couldn't calculate the madness of a crowd."

Selling is much more contagious than buying.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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1:29p, 1/23/22
AG
It's hard to predict what is going to happen. The fed is this week. I think there will be volatility both ways until that happens and then there will be a move. Fintwit is incredibly bearish. Bearish to the point I want to be excited, at least for a micro bounce. When you see things like "there's no support until 4250, Apple might hit 140 this week, Qs aren't done selling, there will be blood, BTC is going to 25K next week". Yeah yeah, Ukraine, but we're talking about 0.5% interest rates. This reminds me a lot of the 2018 taper tantrum. The markets cannot move linearly down because you need both buyers and sellers. To buy, someone has to be willing to sell. Yes, we can go lower, but we're also getting into month end flows and we're post OPEX.

McInnis, it's a mental block you have in place and you're going to have to get over it to be a trader. Sorry to be so direct. Invert your charts if you have to.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 1:38p, 1/23/22
What r ur thoughts on a big dump tomorrow? Apparently $1T worth of options expired Friday….bound to be margin calls out there forcing liquidations. Is it gonna send ripples?

I was fairly nervous at the close on Friday and only left a lotto 441C on SPY for a gap up given how oversold everything is.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 3:47p, 1/23/22
AG
None of us know. Futures haven't opened yet and there is Asia and Europe. I don't put much stock in "margin call Monday". I wouldn't be surprised for us, in spy terms to trade 430 tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised for us to trade 450 either. What I do know is that oversold moves like this normally bounce and we closed on minor support. Lots of people panic sold Thursday and Friday of this last week.

In a way, I would be inclined to be more bullish if we gapped down big tomorrow and never traded higher. A more bearish situation is a rally from here to 4450 or 4520 and then a failure to recapture long term trend lines.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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3:53p, 1/23/22
AG
A couple of data points. BTC is stabilizing and EUR/USD is rallying. AUD/JPY is my favorite but it's not available right now.



You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:15p, 1/23/22
AG
a rally for 2 or 3 days would make sense, and match seasonality charts.

fwiw, I like this guy's work a lot...but he's quite bearish here, still: (call him a poor man's Mancini if you will)

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Philip J Fry
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4:53p, 1/23/22
AG
So, working with my screener today. I decided to change the definition of "Top 20 US Equity Stocks" to only include those that had over 200,000 shares traded at a minimum each day. Then I sorted them by taking the average gain and subracting the difference between the maximum value and the current price. I did this in hopes of filtering out stocks like PHUN who had a major gain on one day, but otherwise sucked ass every other day of the year. Finally, I throw in the Index average (index being US Equities) for comparison.

This produced:



Want to know how many of these stocks have buy indicators? Zero.
So I looked at the top 50. How many of these showed a buy signal? Zero.
Top 100? Zero
Top 1000? 2. SSRM and REGN

Neither of which I'm excited about. Based on the fact that only 2 stocks that out performed the equity index for the year show up as buys, tells we have a ways to go before a reversal is in order.
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