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24,039,073 Views | 231645 Replies | Last: 27 min ago by ProgN
FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:47p, 1/19/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
4500 has to hold, and if it does, we are going to 4550. If it doesn't, we are going to 4450. You should go nuclear long at 4450.

Let's ride. Either way.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Dan Scott
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9:55p, 1/19/22
AG
Future are bumping. Keeping going and hold it baby. Nice to see Asian markets doing well. I would have thought they go red after us
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:00p, 1/19/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
4500 has to hold, and if it does, we are going to 4550. If it doesn't, we are going to 4450. You should go nuclear long at 4450.


All right… I'm all in.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:02p, 1/19/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Longed MNQ early evening at 15041 on higher low. Took profits, moved stops, got stopped.

Re longed at 15024. Took profits, not stopped yet. Let's rally!


As they say on the twit

+100p zipper. Are u smiling?

Anyways, if I was on the big boy contract instead of micro, that's $20 per point....but as it stands 2 micros means $4/pt
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lobwedgephil
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10:41p, 1/19/22
Lol, complaining about catching 100 point move. Nice trade to all of you.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:43p, 1/19/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
If we have a nice market pullback in the next 45 to 60 days I believe I'm taking my cash and going into PDI and JNJ.

PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund has a monthly distribution payout of $0.22 per ~$25.00 share (52W Range ~$24.50 to ~$29.50) and paid monthly $0.22 since beginning of 2018.

JNJ wants to split their company into 2 stock trading companies by the end of 2023. I think there's money to be made if the market gives us a share price pullback.

(I don't care for baby power with corn starch and the talc version is hard to find because of lawsuits. I think I have enough talc for my remaining life. Your feet just slip into boots a lot easier, IMO)

Side Note: SAVA got a flu or skin disease tonight, yikes..
is this currently not a pullback? lol, just busting your chops

scenarios that make the most sense to me: We reverse trend here soon at or around 200 day, then could see SPX 5k by April...then you get your big pullback to under 4k, maybe even 3500.

then QE and negative rates in 2023 and 6k+.

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ProgN
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In reply to Dan Scott • 11:04p, 1/19/22
Dan Scott said:
Future are bumping. Keeping going and hold it baby. Nice to see Asian markets doing well. I would have thought they go red after us
The better scenario would be a deep red open and close the day green. We really need that type of capitulation from retail investors to signal a bottom. If we hold and open green, I'd bet on the side of red close. I hope I'm wrong.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to ProgN • 11:48p, 1/19/22
AG
Todays low is the key level I think.
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FJ43
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4:20a, 1/20/22
Mornun!

Mixed bag out there.

US green but traded lower overnight.
EU well...just red
Asia mixed

And VIX over 23 touching 23.74



Some SPY levels I see with blurry eyes...



I would think we chop sideways into end of the week close. Maybe little lower yet and the 200 still being a ways down at 439.20ish.

No sense fighting it until 'they' decide....



Trade wisely!

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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4:52a, 1/20/22
Read something interesting this morning…I woke up in middle of night and went to Reddit for some humor.

One guy there was discussing about the times the 50 day MA crossed the 200 day MA on VIX, there is a massive spike in the VIX. It's certainly food for thought and it's close now.

There's a lot floating around about volatility and liquidity issues this coming Monday. Cem Karsan alluded to it in a TWTR post before Xmas. Maybe a Hail Mary VIX call over the weekend.

Anyway, good luck today everyone.
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:03a, 1/20/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Read something interesting this morning…I woke up in middle of night and went to Reddit for some humor.

One guy there was discussing about the times the 50 day MA crossed the 200 day MA on VIX, there is a massive spike in the VIX. It's certainly food for thought and it's close now.

There's a lot floating around about volatility and liquidity issues this coming Monday. Cem Karsan alluded to it in a TWTR post before Xmas. Maybe a Hail Mary VIX call over the weekend.

Anyway, good luck today everyone.
Interesting post Doc. Went and took a quick look and that could be fun.

I'll play.......probably out to Feb 1 vs. the Jan 25 expiry for me. Will see if we get any dip on VIX between today and tomorrow for some lottos.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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6:05a, 1/20/22
Looks like major money moved yesterday and day before on a 4700/4800 bull call spread…..like $18.8B notional exposure.


Maybe bottom is in or close, and then go time.

Hard to make sense of this here though….OA (and my level) have below 455 as a bearish trend. So we are gonna quickly reverse out of this and move back to 4700-4800?

I'm just gonna trade price action. I broke my own recent rule of holding a SPY option overnight. Gotta break that habit. Too much uncertainty it seems.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:08a, 1/20/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Longed MNQ early evening at 15041 on higher low. Took profits, moved stops, got stopped.

Re longed at 15024. Took profits, not stopped yet. Let's rally!


As they say on the twit

+100p zipper. Are u smiling?

Anyways, if I was on the big boy contract instead of micro, that's $20 per point....but as it stands 2 micros means $4/pt


Trimmed another 1/4. Down to last runner in case we do some crazy +300PT day
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ProgN
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7:05a, 1/20/22


Who would pay to eat this garbage?
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ProgN
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7:07a, 1/20/22
SIG!!

That had to be one of the best buys ever when they hit $5 in 2020.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to ProgN • 7:11a, 1/20/22
AG
ProgN said:
SIG!!

That had to be one of the best buys ever when they hit $5 in 2020.


Traded that in single digits
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ProgN
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:16a, 1/20/22
It pains me to think about it but buying 10,000 shrs of SIG and CZR when they were both $5/shr in 2020, would've created life changing wealth.
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ProgN
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7:20a, 1/20/22
AMD, cut to neutral PT lowered to $130.

Good news is that means we're getting real close to a market bottom when bs like this starts to happen.
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austinAG90
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7:20a, 1/20/22
AG
Thursday Macros.....

China Cuts Prime Rate...ECB's Lagarde Stands Firm Against Hikes...Treas Rally

Equities are better this morning, but nowhere near the losses of yesterday... Treasuries are higher after rallying and reversing yesterday... It feels like the high yield prints of 1.69 5 years and 1.90 10 years may be it until the Fed meeting next week... The short base is very extended, and while we still see 2% 10 years this quarter, there is room for a 10-15 basis move lower in yield... Somewhat of a trap for those that got short in the last few days... Jury is out.

China reduced their prime rate today and gave indications they will continue to ease gradually.. That was the catalyst for the Hang Seng to rally 3.42%. We also saw a "record breaking rally" in Chinese Property bonds yesterday that somewhat petered out today. There was some confusion over a plan to allow developers greater access to funds from presold homes... Not clear if China is coming to the rescue of property developers.

Equities overnight were in a 40 point range for the S+P... We are 25 points off the lows and 15 points off the highs... Equities remain in corrective mode with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 in trouble... We still see a correction across the board... We gave a talk to NY students last night on the markets with an old friend who is a professor at NYU...We think we scared some of the participants with our view on rates, the Fed , and equity markets... That was not our intention... Inflation is real and the Fed is way behind... We find tremendous irony in the ECB Lagarde's statement that there is no reason to follow the Fed in raising rates and that inflation will subside... Yes it will reverse, but we think years not days... We follow Germany as that is the largest of the European economies... While Lagarde was talking dovish, GERMAN PPI CAME OUT THIS MORNING UP 24.3% YOY, 5 FULL POINTS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS... So rates are going higher...

We have seen bear markets in bonds and hawkish Federal Reserves over many cycles... It is not unusual to have bear market rallies as too many shorts get to the port side of the trade... We are there now... While we think the Fed will accelerate tapering next week, we think they will not be as bearish in their outlook as the market is anticipating... And ultimately, with 4 rate raises priced in and many looking for 2-3 more, we are still sticking with 3-4 as our outlook...Those that read our view will see consistency in our outlook... For today we can see 10 years in a 1.80-1.90 range... Could break to 1.75 with some short covering...
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59 South
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In reply to ProgN • 7:22a, 1/20/22
AG
ProgN said:


Who would pay to eat this garbage?
Chicks you wouldn't want to date bruh.
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McInnis 03
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7:22a, 1/20/22
AG
Good info for today on NQ which can be a quick chart you watch while you trade QQQ

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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:27a, 1/20/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Read something interesting this morning…I woke up in middle of night and went to Reddit for some humor.

One guy there was discussing about the times the 50 day MA crossed the 200 day MA on VIX, there is a massive spike in the VIX. It's certainly food for thought and it's close now.

There's a lot floating around about volatility and liquidity issues this coming Monday. Cem Karsan alluded to it in a TWTR post before Xmas. Maybe a Hail Mary VIX call over the weekend.

Anyway, good luck today everyone.
Yeah, it's never a positive situation when the VIX performs a 'golden cross', while stocks are simultaneously putting in 'death crosses'.
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59 South
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In reply to ProgN • 7:28a, 1/20/22
AG
ProgN said:
AMD, cut to neutral PT lowered to $130.

Good news is that means we're getting real close to a market bottom when bs like this starts to happen.
Truth. Lots of companies are probably due downgrades, but AMD is about as low on the list as you can get.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:35a, 1/20/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Dan Scott said:
SPY RSI closed at 34.8

January 18, RSI 38, closed at 456.49, next day gap open 457.97
November 30 RSI 37, closed at 450.50, next day no gap. Open 450.60 close at 457.40
October 3, RSI 36, closed at 428.64, next day gap up 430.24 close at 433
September 29, RSI 34, closed at 429.14, next day gap open 430.98 close at 434
September 28 RSI 39, closed at 434.45, next day gap open 435.09
September 27 RSI 37. closed 433.72, next day gap open 435.02
September 20, RSI 32 closed 433.63, next day gap open 436.14
September 19, RSI RSI 32, closed 434.04, next day gap open 436.67
October 29, 2020, RSI 37, closed 326.54, next day gap open 330.20
October 27, 2020 RSI 35, closed 326.66, next day no gap open, closed at 329.98

September 22, 2020 is when it didn't work but next day was green followed by a huge green day and a 10% bounce over next few weeks.
Nice little writeup there. Makes me have some hope for the Friday SPY 460c's I bought at close. They don't matter in the grand scheme, but who doesn't like a happy ending?
potential 2.5-3pt gap up at open.....
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McInnis 03
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7:41a, 1/20/22
AG
Is it just me or does Gold look like it's breaking out hard?


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Saltyag15
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7:42a, 1/20/22
AG
I'm taking this AMD downgrade as a gift and will be adding some here. As 59South said, there are lots of companies that are way overvalued out there, but I don't think AMD is one of them. Neither is NVDA.
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to Saltyag15 • 7:51a, 1/20/22
AG
Saltyag15 said:
I'm taking this AMD downgrade as a gift and will be adding some here. As 59South said, there are lots of companies that are way overvalued out there, but I don't think AMD is one of them. Neither is NVDA.


They're fun to short on the weekly here lately but the long term is great
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Ranger222
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7:53a, 1/20/22
AG
I think the easiest trade right now is long precious metal stocks. I've been long KL the past week or so. Finally saw movement on calls I've held yesterday, but the potential move is just starting

Also new short idea - DKS. Chart was making the rounds on twitter yesterday evening
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BrokeAssAggie
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7:57a, 1/20/22
2022 is going to be our year boys. WWR hits $15 by this summer.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:58a, 1/20/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:
2022 is going to be our year boys. WWR hits $15 by this summer.
Which would be when we make an Atlas pump/dump look like chump change.
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59 South
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In reply to ProgN • 7:59a, 1/20/22
AG
ProgN said:
It pains me to think about it but buying 10,000 shrs of SIG and CZR when they were both $5/shr in 2020, would've created life changing wealth.
I think there were at least a handful of us that accumulated five figures shares of NIO a couple of years ago when it was in the $2-5 range. In hindsight there were so many opportunities for long term accumulation from Q4 2018 to Q1/2 2020. Heck, you could be 3-4x just buying the biggest company in the world!

Side note, AAPL is very very extended on the weekly and monthly long term charts. Throughout this long running bull market, it has reconnected every 2-4 years with the 50 month SMA and 200 week SMA. Those are both <$90 right now but rising. If you zoom out the technicals say it is due for a correction to the mean which is around $100. That would carry SPX down to a 20+% correction. Decent chance that happens this year. But there is a very plausible scenario where the crazy (and perceived "safe") money made in AAPL/SPX now just rotates back to growth/momentum that has been hit with 50+% draw downs over the past year. Musical chairs....

Pardon my bit of rambling on there... carry on.
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
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khkman22
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In reply to ProgN • 8:01a, 1/20/22
AG
ProgN said:


Who would pay to eat this garbage?
Looks like a cross section of a rubber band ball.
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jj9000
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 8:01a, 1/20/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:
2022 is going to be our year boys. WWR hits $15 by this summer.


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Maximus_Meridius
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:02a, 1/20/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
2022 is going to be our year boys. WWR hits $15 by this summer.
Which would be when we make an Atlas pump/dump look like chump change.
Any of you clowns sell WWR before $25, and I will personally video the TikTok of OA1 taking a lead pipe to your knees!
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Maximus_Meridius • 8:03a, 1/20/22
AG
Maximus_Meridius said:
McInnis 03 said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
2022 is going to be our year boys. WWR hits $15 by this summer.
Which would be when we make an Atlas pump/dump look like chump change.
Any of you clowns sell WWR before $25, and I will personally video the TikTok of OA1 taking a lead pipe to your knees!
I'm all out of WWR. Bring on Tanya Harding.
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