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BaylorSpineGuy
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5:12p, 1/19/22
A good friend of mine is very active stock trader. We discussed at dinner 2 weeks ago that the likely top of the bull market was AAPL reaching a $3T market cap.

Fast forward a little bit and look what's just completed a H&S pattern on the 50 DMA. If this doesn't hold (and overall market sentiment bearish, which it is), their loss of the 50 with an impulsive move down may be the iceberg.

Love this group of minds in here. I tried to push something like this on the SicEm pay portion of the website, and no one showed any interest…..in fact, someone from that website mentioned this thread to me. Proud to "know" you all.

Thanks for all the free knowledge and happy back and forth banter.
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Engine10
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:17p, 1/19/22
AG
Cheers Doc!
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AgShaun00
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:36p, 1/19/22
AG
Make sure some of your Profits go to Aggie NIL
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Fireman
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:37p, 1/19/22
AG
Appreciate it FJ, not sure scalping is for me, but it's a fun lesson none the less.
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Dan Scott
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5:49p, 1/19/22
AG
QQQ 200MA is 365.25. The Qs closed at 366.48. The RSI on the Qs is 33.47. This is a gap up level too. So combination defend the 200, low RSI, and panic at the close, I think and hope we're bouncing tomorrow.

Then Friday will be wild
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to AgShaun00 • 5:49p, 1/19/22
Probably all committed to Aranda's extension
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Dan Scott
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5:53p, 1/19/22
AG
VXN also closed red but off the lows
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FJ43
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In reply to Fireman • 6:19p, 1/19/22
Fireman said:
Appreciate it FJ, not sure scalping is for me, but it's a fun lesson none the less.
No worries. Yeah scalping on weekly options is a different sport. Same basic concepts and tools but on a completely different timeline. I learned the hard way discipline is key and don't be greedy. The trade can move for or against you quickly at times.

It's not my primary game but by far my favorite.

If I can help don't hesitate to reach out.

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FJ43
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6:31p, 1/19/22
iPad charting with a finger so not precise but.....that's ugly.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Engine10
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6:37p, 1/19/22
AG
ARKK closed @ $75.75 today, down more than 50% from highs. What a blood bath. 30 million shares traded today, high water mark since last summer.
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FJ43
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6:39p, 1/19/22
April 2020 Qs came back above the 200 and hasn't sniffed it since. Until now.....

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to Dan Scott • 6:43p, 1/19/22
Dan Scott said:
SPY RSI closed at 34.8

January 18, RSI 38, closed at 456.49, next day gap open 457.97
November 30 RSI 37, closed at 450.50, next day no gap. Open 450.60 close at 457.40
October 3, RSI 36, closed at 428.64, next day gap up 430.24 close at 433
September 29, RSI 34, closed at 429.14, next day gap open 430.98 close at 434
September 28 RSI 39, closed at 434.45, next day gap open 435.09
September 27 RSI 37. closed 433.72, next day gap open 435.02
September 20, RSI 32 closed 433.63, next day gap open 436.14
September 19, RSI RSI 32, closed 434.04, next day gap open 436.67
October 29, 2020, RSI 37, closed 326.54, next day gap open 330.20
October 27, 2020 RSI 35, closed 326.66, next day no gap open, closed at 329.98

September 22, 2020 is when it didn't work but next day was green followed by a huge green day and a 10% bounce over next few weeks.
Well done. Thanks for the homework.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to Engine10 • 6:48p, 1/19/22
Engine10 said:
ARKK closed @ $75.75 today, down more than 50% from highs. What a blood bath. 30 million shares traded today, high water mark since last summer.
Not precise but close. Had to look based on your post.

Has a bunch more room to the downside if it wants to.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to gougler08 • 6:54p, 1/19/22
gougler08 said:
Well looks like I'll be taking positions in PYPL, UPST and DKNG...I like them longer term but will probably make my account look like poo poo in the short term
Just me but Id be waiting for confirmed reversals and not try to catch the precise bottom. Things are sketchy at the moment.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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7:05p, 1/19/22
Despite the markets this one continues to look interesting. Posted this morning on my short list. Want to see it close over the 50 (light blue EMA).

So close....

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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7:08p, 1/19/22
If we have a nice market pullback in the next 45 to 60 days I believe I'm taking my cash and going into PDI and JNJ.

PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund has a monthly distribution payout of $0.22 per ~$25.00 share (52W Range ~$24.50 to ~$29.50) and paid monthly $0.22 since beginning of 2018.

JNJ wants to split their company into 2 stock trading companies by the end of 2023. I think there's money to be made if the market gives us a share price pullback.

(I don't care for baby power with corn starch and the talc version is hard to find because of lawsuits. I think I have enough talc for my remaining life. Your feet just slip into boots a lot easier, IMO)

Side Note: SAVA got a flu or skin disease tonight, yikes..
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 7:18p, 1/19/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Side Note: SAVA got a flu or skin disease tonight, yikes..

Oh crap, I'm scared to look. At least I got that free $5 spread trade in today. Damnit.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 7:30p, 1/19/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Side Note: SAVA got a flu or skin disease tonight, yikes..

Oh crap, I'm scared to look. At least I got that free $5 spread trade in today. Damnit.
Elizabeth Bik attacking again. Her efforts got an image retracted from a science journal that was authored by Wang (researcher for Cassava). Article had nothing to do with SAVA, but she tagged the stock ticker anyways. Low volume sell off = good entry for February calls.
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7:41p, 1/19/22
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:44p, 1/19/22
Actual balance sheet contraction, supply chain crunch, winter storm disaster in a highly populated state that doesn't get those normally, or Wham gets back together. Any of those would do it.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 7:56p, 1/19/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
If we have a nice market pullback in the next 45 to 60 days I believe I'm taking my cash and going into PDI and JNJ.

PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund has a monthly distribution payout of $0.22 per ~$25.00 share (52W Range ~$24.50 to ~$29.50) and paid monthly $0.22 since beginning of 2018.

JNJ wants to split their company into 2 stock trading companies by the end of 2023. I think there's money to be made if the market gives us a share price pullback.

(I don't care for baby power with corn starch and the talc version is hard to find because of lawsuits. I think I have enough talc for my remaining life. Your feet just slip into boots a lot easier, IMO)

Side Note: SAVA got a flu or skin disease tonight, yikes..
Great nuggets Farmer. Have to look into those in my IRA
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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gougler08
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:03p, 1/19/22
AG
FJ43 said:
gougler08 said:
Well looks like I'll be taking positions in PYPL, UPST and DKNG...I like them longer term but will probably make my account look like poo poo in the short term
Just me but Id be waiting for confirmed reversals and not try to catch the precise bottom. Things are sketchy at the moment.





Yeah these are puts I sold so will most likely be exercised, and it's a long position for me so not the end of the world if I don't time the bottom
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FJ43
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In reply to gougler08 • 8:04p, 1/19/22
Gotcha. Thought you were looking at making a new entry.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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azul_rain
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8:05p, 1/19/22

we in the denial stage?
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:07p, 1/19/22
BaylorSpineGuy
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8:14p, 1/19/22
Another example of inflation:

First, an introduction: Medtronic is a great company. Dividend aristocrat and leader in spinal implants and technology. I do like the company and use some of their implants, but they have largely scaled back their R&D and largely acquire anything that is worthwhile (at least it relates to spine surgery), but don't usually get out in front of the pack now.

Historically, they blazed the trail on minimally invasive spine surgery (early 2000s) and intraoperative spinal navigation (O-arm debuted in the mid-2000s and remains the standard to this day!).

Now, they are generally late adopters to expandable spine technology (Globus/GMED is probably the leader and have been on front edge for almost a decade or longer). Their portfolio has fallen behind that of their peers, IMO.

Now the fun part: I was speaking to my rep the other day, and they are having a hard time to keep their sets stocked with screws and some other implants! A couple of their surgeons have switched or are about to switch to other companies because Medtronic is having a hard time to get their stuff in.

I know another case of a guy who needed an operation to put a shunt tube in his brain to drain excess spinal fluid. Medtronic makes a navigated catheter stylet for ease of passing the tube. Ultimately, there was no navigated stylet available! I heard it wouldn't even be available for at least a couple weeks!! The surgeon ended up using a different technique (fortunately no issues!), but the point remains the same.

This is a DJIA/SPX stalwart and dividend aristocrat. It makes sense when you see the stock is down almost 25% (and I'm guessing more to come).

If some of the most powerful companies in the world are struggling to get their products to their distributors/reps, real problems brewing.
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Dan Scott
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8:21p, 1/19/22
AG
Futures holding early. I noticed around 5:30 they dropped real quick and the Qs made a low really close too the 200 and SPY broke below 451 then made a nice v bounce.

Qs haven't broken the 200 in over a year. I just can't see it not defend it.

I hate holding options overnight, I monitor the overnights too much. What's happening now doesn't matter but I rather it be green than red
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wanderer
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:22p, 1/19/22
Baylor business school may call that inflation, but I'd call it supply chain issues
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to wanderer • 8:36p, 1/19/22
Lol touch. I was a Spanish major anyway, so I'm out of my league.

But in reality, I doubt the one exists without the other. Or more likely, the LA train vandals got their hands on some nice titanium screws and navigated shunt stylets.
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McInnis 03
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8:38p, 1/19/22
AG
Longed MNQ early evening at 15041 on higher low. Took profits, moved stops, got stopped.

Re longed at 15024. Took profits, not stopped yet. Let's rally!
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:59p, 1/19/22
You're welcome. Hope the new gig is working out. Glad to see your posts. Yep, the PDI is a good IRA play or cash looking for a home in a non-IRA account. The JNJ is only interesting to me if we get a pullback and JNJ takes a dip.

That DISCA you mention from a couple days back,...I am watching that one as it has direct impact to the AT&T deal with Discovery (Warner Bros/Discovery deal). The T and DISCA spread was premium held by T and then shifted to DISCA. It's been an amazing spread to "watch". The mega-premium shift occurred when an analyst gave DISCA a $45 target price last week or 2 ago and the race was on. The WB/D deal details have not been announced....yet, but the WB/D deal should eventually come out as a real GROWTH opportunity for those shares once the deal is completed. Definitely want to own Calls on that share issue whenever it happens. Not only are there no details on the WB/D deal, there's no details on the mechanics of Options in this deal. It does "guesstimate appear" that T shareholders will receive somewhere between 0.25 to 1.29 shares of WB/D per share of T. Depends if the deal will be a Spin-off or a Split-off. Again, just a wild guess right now. Might be given more deal information by T leadership when they announce earnings before the bell on Jan 26th. I'll either howl like a wounded Comanche or scream like a bald eagle after that earnings announcement.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to Dan Scott • 9:23p, 1/19/22
Dan Scott said:
SPY RSI closed at 34.8

January 18, RSI 38, closed at 456.49, next day gap open 457.97
November 30 RSI 37, closed at 450.50, next day no gap. Open 450.60 close at 457.40
October 3, RSI 36, closed at 428.64, next day gap up 430.24 close at 433
September 29, RSI 34, closed at 429.14, next day gap open 430.98 close at 434
September 28 RSI 39, closed at 434.45, next day gap open 435.09
September 27 RSI 37. closed 433.72, next day gap open 435.02
September 20, RSI 32 closed 433.63, next day gap open 436.14
September 19, RSI RSI 32, closed 434.04, next day gap open 436.67
October 29, 2020, RSI 37, closed 326.54, next day gap open 330.20
October 27, 2020 RSI 35, closed 326.66, next day no gap open, closed at 329.98

September 22, 2020 is when it didn't work but next day was green followed by a huge green day and a 10% bounce over next few weeks.


Thanks for this post! I did not know what RSI was and had to refer to Investopedia.

I would have bet on tomorrow being another green head fake and then red down into the 440's. It just feels like we are due a larger correction that we have been through. Now, I will be cautious. It looks like the RSI rarely drops below 30.

And green market should be good for my AMD calls I'm bag holding.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 9:26p, 1/19/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
You're welcome. Hope the new gig is working out. Glad to see your posts. Yep, the PDI is a good IRA play or cash looking for a home in a non-IRA account. The JNJ is only interesting to me if we get a pullback and JNJ takes a dip.

That DISCA you mention from a couple days back,...I am watching that one as it has direct impact to the AT&T deal with Discovery (Warner Bros/Discovery deal). The T and DISCA spread was premium held by T and then shifted to DISCA. It's been an amazing spread to "watch". The mega-premium shift occurred when an analyst gave DISCA a $45 target price last week or 2 ago and the race was on. The WB/D deal details have not been announced....yet, but the WB/D deal should eventually come out as a real GROWTH opportunity for those shares once the deal is completed. Definitely want to own Calls on that share issue whenever it happens. Not only are there no details on the WB/D deal, there's no details on the mechanics of Options in this deal. It does "guesstimate appear" that T shareholders will receive somewhere between 0.25 to 1.29 shares of WB/D per share of T. Depends if the deal will be a Spin-off or a Split-off. Again, just a wild guess right now. Might be given more deal information by T leadership when they announce earnings before the bell on Jan 26th. I'll either howl like a wounded Comanche or scream like a bald eagle after that earnings announcement.

Thanks. Working well so far. These deals always have twists and turns but that's the game. Burning the candle on both ends lately with M&A activity which will be nice to take a breather maybe 2nd QTR.

I'll be checking out those two you keyed in on. Not able to trade as actively so need some decent parking spots.

I like DISCA long term. The WB/D deal I think has some juice for a return mid term. Who knows longer term. Watching TA wise to see if consolidates here between 28-30. Even with the market weakness it's holding its own….so far anyway. There was some good flow into it a 7-10 days ago so watching to see when volume pushes again. It's right at the MT from the secondary move. From a trade perspective with stops can be a decent RR.

Depending on where a guy wants to start, it's holding fibs so far with the sell offs.




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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lobwedgephil
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:31p, 1/19/22
AAPL has has significant pullback every trillion. And it did confirm head and shoulders yesterday, not close to completing the pattern's measured move, if it does. But good eye for sure. You have a good eye for patterns.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:44p, 1/19/22
AG
4500 has to hold, and if it does, we are going to 4550. If it doesn't, we are going to 4450. You should go nuclear long at 4450.
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