Are Apple and Amazon expected to have good earnings. Last quarter they cited supply chain concerns
Stock Markets
24,042,325 Views |
231653 Replies |
Last: 15 min ago by ProgN
Inflation, tapering, and rising rates could be the financial weakness with supply chain issues being the black swan event. That would be "bad".
SPY RSI at 36. At this level and lower the next day evertime going back 2 years we've gapped up to start the day. If we didn't gapped up, we closed higher the next day
I think this is why puts are attractive but of course, don't go full tilt into them. As has been stated, this is currently a trader's market so get in and get out. For example, every option trade I made today was in the green, all of them were puts. My overall account is currently red for the day only because my longs are down, while I nearly doubled my cash on the sideline with those options trades.
I have to remind myself of that. Once the market switches, those longs will get back to where they are but for now, I could have made some serious money scalping puts on the way down. For now, I have kept the wolves away with trading SPY scalps after watching what it's doing.
I have to remind myself of that. Once the market switches, those longs will get back to where they are but for now, I could have made some serious money scalping puts on the way down. For now, I have kept the wolves away with trading SPY scalps after watching what it's doing.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,586
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm mostly sitting out trading this week, but I did just fill some 459/460/461 SPY butterfly lottos.
Just a follow up....I didn't get to play this being in meetings but a follow up for those defining their scalping intraday.FJ43 said:Not yet. Watch 458.02 then 458.51...both ishTalon2DSO said:FJ43 said:
Scalp chart
Does this imply the peak has been hit and its headed back down?
3 Min chart...but I watch 5, 10 and peek at hourly scalping and use 3 or less to exit if I am active.
How I would have traded this anyway.....
The left arrow is entry long.
The top right arrow is exit long and possible entry short. Could also wait to break of 457.03.
2nd lower right arrow is exit short.
I like stats like this... it would also bury the put holders if we gap up at open tomorrow, OPEX shenanigans.Dan Scott said:
SPY RSI at 36. At this level and lower the next day evertime going back 2 years we've gapped up to start the day. If we didn't gapped up, we closed higher the next day
For quite awhile, I've pretty much ignored the scalping ideas, but this post caught my attention. If you don't mind sharing, let's say you just caught the long side of the trade, exactly where your arrows show entry and exit. Would a $5,000 investment net you $500 or $600, or how would I calculate the reward / profit, ignoring any tax consequences? Thanks.
Not a put holder anymore. I'm ready for some calls tomorrow. I may look at a way OTM call before close to scalp in the morning knowing I am going to lose a few bucks.
I haven't been this closely tuned to index charts in awhile if ever.......for me, this week so far has been absolutely INSANE from an algo perspective. The up/down movements are simply hideous and the generalized direction is not really that easy to follow from a target/stop perspective.
I'm learning to appreciate the power of the HFT's.
But hey........I'm green 2 days in a row so I'll take it.
I'm learning to appreciate the power of the HFT's.
But hey........I'm green 2 days in a row so I'll take it.
Why would the top right arrow not be about 30 minutes prior on the first pull back?FJ43 said:Just a follow up....I didn't get to play this being in meetings but a follow up for those defining their scalping intraday.FJ43 said:Not yet. Watch 458.02 then 458.51...both ishTalon2DSO said:FJ43 said:
Scalp chart
Does this imply the peak has been hit and its headed back down?
3 Min chart...but I watch 5, 10 and peek at hourly scalping and use 3 or less to exit if I am active.
How I would have traded this anyway.....
The left arrow is entry long.
The top right arrow is exit long and possible entry short. Could also wait to break of 457.03.
2nd lower right arrow is exit short.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Take your time here fj. Don't set the hook too hard, light on the drag...
Everybody loves a dirt road
It should net you a lot more than $500, that amount will depend on your entry strategy though. I wouldn't exactly refer to it as an investment though.Fireman said:
For quite awhile, I've pretty much ignored the scalping ideas, but this post caught my attention. If you don't mind sharing, let's say you just caught the long side of the trade, exactly where your arrows show entry and exit. Would a $5,000 investment net you $500 or $600, or how would I calculate the reward / profit, ignoring any tax consequences? Thanks.
Not speaking for FJ but SPY tested $458 twice and rejected just before, that would be confirmation that's the top for now.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Serious answer: watch the zoom call at the bottom of the first post in the thread, start with paper trading until you get a feel for it, then when you start scalping with real money don't get too confident if you are on a run, short dated options can go south quick
Everybody loves a dirt road
We need a 365 test. It will be better in the long run IMO
I laughed too hard at this because there's so much truth in it. It's like the drug dealer (FJ) saying, " alright bruh, the first one's free, but after that I'm gonna have to charge you".Charismatic Megafauna said:
Take your time here fj. Don't set the hook too hard, light on the drag...
How come every billionaire and professional money manager claims that the surest way to real wealth is simply tracking the sectors and the overall indices?
and Not through day trading?
seems by the time you guys realize what is going to happen- the algos and the professionals have already traded on it.
and Not through day trading?
seems by the time you guys realize what is going to happen- the algos and the professionals have already traded on it.
SPY just touched $453.54, FJ is a genius. Let's see if the oversold bounce is happening.
If we don't get it tomorrow and it goes sideways, we could see a dump to the 150EMA around $448. I know it sounds like a lot, but it could get there in a hurry if it breaks this $453 level.
If we don't get it tomorrow and it goes sideways, we could see a dump to the 150EMA around $448. I know it sounds like a lot, but it could get there in a hurry if it breaks this $453 level.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,943
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Professional money managers get commissions for selling you index funds, and I'm not sure anybody ever became a billionaire through dollar cost averaging the s&p, unless they dca'd a billion dollars into it
Everybody loves a dirt road
What's the relevance of the 150 EMA?Spoony Love said:
SPY just touched $453.54, FJ is a genius. Let's see if the oversold bounce is happening.
If we don't get it tomorrow and it goes sideways, we could see a dump to the 150EMA around $448. I know it sounds like a lot, but it could get there in a hurry if it breaks this $453 level.
144 is at least a fib number.
watching this close....4535ES is an interesting level.
Boom got the quick flush down, i got calls for tomorrow. Going to play the RSI bounces. It works until it doesnt
When SPY does bounce you thinking a 2% percent type day? I guess we don't really knows just curious what others think or maybe seen in the past.
More levels boys.....
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,586
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BrokeAssAggie said:
When SPY does bounce you will thinking a 2% percent type day? I guess know when really knows just curious what others think or maybe seen in the past.
I'd take a 1.6% type day.
Toilet flushhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Ending on a bad flush
Sheesh...Didn't expect it before market close though!Irish 2.0 said:
We need a 365 test. It will be better in the long run IMO
I momentum trade and outperform every mutual fund every year. Take that for what it's worth.LMCane said:
How come every billionaire and professional money manager claims that the surest way to real wealth is simply tracking the sectors and the overall indices?
and Not through day trading?
seems by the time you guys realize what is going to happen- the algos and the professionals have already traded on it.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,393
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Today was a real Bull vs Bear boxing match.
And, tonight, Beat The Hell Outta Kentucky!
That is all.
Gig'em!
And, tonight, Beat The Hell Outta Kentucky!
That is all.
Gig'em!
If you bought puts this morning, you crushed it.
It's actually a good thing. I'd love to have a limit down open tomorrow with capitulation, then we'd be close to a real reversal.Talon2DSO said:
Ending on a bad flush
Hopefully the Ags play like the Bears tonight.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Today was a real Bull vs Bear boxing match.
And, tonight, Beat The Hell Outta Kentucky!
That is all.
Gig'em!
Simple redneck terms....Fireman said:
For quite awhile, I've pretty much ignored the scalping ideas, but this post caught my attention. If you don't mind sharing, let's say you just caught the long side of the trade, exactly where your arrows show entry and exit. Would a $5,000 investment net you $500 or $600, or how would I calculate the reward / profit, ignoring any tax consequences? Thanks.
Look at the delta and the value of the move. If $3 move lets say, its 3 X the delta (ballpark anyway as the momentum also has an impact both ways). In those cases depending on if you bought weekly and depending on the strike they usually are a lot more. BUT...you must cut it quick if the trade fails or you give up the wins +
If I would have put 5k into that trade on a weekly ATM it probably would have been 60-100% assuming I rode it all the way, I can go back and look at it.
One easy way is pull up the 2 min chart on the option date & strike itself. Then match against the price action of the underlying....overlay it. It is really clear then what could have been both ways.