Mornun Gents!

Red across the ponds and gapping down early.

SPY IMO watch 456.98 to downside (100EMA) and 465 (50 EMA...ish) to upside.





Market is best for trading at the moment. Few longs for me until confirmed reversals.

Don't let it be personal...its just a transaction...you vs. the other guy (or Mr. Algo).....

Now go win!




Trade wisely!

Irish 2.0 upon opening his account this morning.


Getting real tired of this selling!! I want green dammit! I'm not overexposed, I just hate trading to the short side!

For my fellow SPY degenerate scalpers

I still have those 470C for this week 1/21. Need some help or busted trade.

Will take some juice IMO to break the upper trend line (yellow). Approx 470.19...ish (red SR level). Downside I think 455.21...ish is important.

We are right at the first level downside trend line (yellow). Second level downside trend line about that 455.21...ish.



For me....no guessing...trade levels and/or EMAs on scalping.

SHOPIFY STEPS UP CHINA EXPANSION THROUGH TIE-UP WITH E-COMMERCE GIANT https://t.co/xU9OmUP5bQ - CNBC

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 18, 2022

Fears of Fed Hawkishness Accelerate..2 Years Hit 1.05... Nasdaq Slumps 2%

Late last week ,and again over the weekend, the fears of accelerating Fed Hawkishness continues to increase.. The front end of the US Treasury curve has hit new highs as 2 years hit 1.056, 5 years 1.65 and 10 years 1.85... All hit their highs during Asian time and have come marginally since...US equity futures do not like the accelerating rate fears and have slumped with the S+P futures hitting down 65 points, now down 42, and the Nasdaq slumping down over 310 points, now down 225... It is an ugly start to a holiday shortened week.

The Fed and rates.... As we said last night, 2 years , 5 years and 10 years have now met our first level of support and are now through it... With 2 years breaking 1%, (1.056 overnight), the next level objective is 1.31.. For 5 years it is 1.77 and for 10 years 1.92...Overseas rates are getting hit as well, with the Swiss 10 year being the latest to flip to a positive yield this morning... The 10 year Bund is the last of the major 10 year space still in negative territory... It will go as well...

The yield curve is flattening this morning with 5/30 flatter by another 3.5... While 2/10 flatter by 2.3... We expect more pressure on the long end of treasuries until we see a break of equities to corrective levels toward 10%...

What will the Fed do?...There continues to be accelerating fears of Fed Hawkishness... Some are calling for a 50 basis increase in March (Ackman talking his book)...Dimon on Friday talked about as many as 7 this year... And Citi talked about raises in March, May and June... So far no one is talking about a rate rise next week... WE EXPECT THE FED TO SPEED UP TAPERING AT THEIR MEETING NEXT WEEK... ENDING TAPERING BY THE END OF FEBRUARY... No longer March... The Fed is way behind the inflation curve, and they are feeling the political heat that inflation is now enemy number 1... Ahead of employment and Covid... Although Covid continues to make inflation worse by attacking the supply chain.

Supply Chain... Is it getting better?... Some think so, we are not in that camp...President Xi of China gave a speech at the World Economic Forum via video yesterday where he is very concerned about the global supply chains. He said
"We need to resolve various risks and promote the steady recovery of the world economy," Xi said at the World Economic Forum via video link on Monday,
"The global industrial and supply chains have been disrupted," he added. "Commodity prices continue to rise. Energy supply remains tight. These risks compound one another and heighten the uncertainty about the economic recovery."

Meanwhile some of China's larger cities remain in lock-down... Barron's checked in with SpaceKnow, a satellite company that tracks global supply chains by watching infrastructure via scanning ports, thousands of logistic centers and major trucking stops... Daily data gathered from space depict high port congestion, that is not actually improving...so do not be quick to believe the headlines that that supply chain is getting better... It is still a big problem... And yes "big brother is watching".

Lots of fears out there.... Here are some of our views concerning headlines we read over the weekend....

1) Will the Fed raise 50 in March? No
2) Are all meetings live?.. Could the Fed move March, May, and June?... Maybe but we doubt it... We still think 3-4 moves this year... With a combination of QT...
3) How much QT will the Fed do?...50-100 billion a month once they get started seems reasonable... But once 10 years get above 2%... On the way to our 2.33 objective, we are not sure... Depends on equities...
4) Natwest talked about the forward rates in Barron's... Forwards see 10 years going to 1.94 this year and 2.06 next year.. We think rates will accelerate well beyond that...
5)... Why is the dollar index slumping given the high rates of the US and the Fed outlook... Our view is that rates play a minor role in currencies... And the health of the economies are paramount for the dollar... There is a slowdown in the US, part because of supply chains and availability of goods... And part because of the rapid increase in Covid cases... But the economic numbers will bounce back...

This week will be another choppy one with an ugly start on rates and equities. It will remain choppy going into the Fed meeting next week... But while fears are rampant, we have not seen the panic move yet...


Manage your risk...stay liquid for now... With plenty of fresh powder

McInnis 03 said:

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Msft buying atvi

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Ummmmm

MICROSOFT TO ACQUIRE ACTIVISION BLIZZARD TO BRING THE JOY AND COMMUNITY OF GAMING TO EVERYONE, ACROSS EVERY DEVICE

MICROSOFT - MICROSOFT WILL ACQUIRE ACTIVISION BLIZZARD FOR $95.00 PER SHARE, IN AN ALL-CASH TRANSACTION VALUED AT $68.7 BILLION$MSFT $ATVI

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 18, 2022

$68.7B cash...Also known as the change found in the cushions of the Microsoft lobby...

Microsoft just bought Activison-Blizzard for $68B?!

I had ATVI on top of my watchlist his week

oh well