CrazyRichAggie said:

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Conversation with the wife today

Me - man, I sold those calls a little too early could have made some more money.

Wife - so you lost money.

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First rule of stock market; do not tell wife about stock market

CrazyRichAggie said:

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Conversation with the wife today

Me - man, I sold those calls a little too early could have made some more money.

Wife - so you lost money.

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No sweetheart, I missed an opportunity to make some more by mitigating risk and following the well established rules for trading. Also, I need a sammich & another Tom Collins (which may or may not be followed with ducking & covering).

Not a lot going on from what we can see... US equity futures are higher but off their highs in the last hour... It won't take much for them to set another record today... But moves now, both in bonds and stocks, do not seem meaningful... With Covid cases, rather Omicron cases, skyrocketing globally, markets are awaiting 2022 to see what that brings... We think initially it will bring higher equities to start the year and lower bond prices... Asian and European equities are lower this morning by around a half a percent. Most European equity markets had a decent year, excepting Germany and Spain... Asian markets had a rougher year led by China...

We did an interview with the FT yesterday on our view why equities did well in the last week and how we expect them to perform in 2022... Our focus was on the Fed, who tried to orchestrate higher inflation in 2021... From the Fed's perspective they got much higher inflation than they were looking for... And will be forced to bring it under control in 2022... Bloomberg continues to report improving supply chains, we are not believers... Jim Bianco mentioned a city in China, 50% larger than the NY population, that shut down last week... And will probably be shut for awhile... Given that the world's supply chain starts in China, we think supply chains issues will be with us for years... But back to the markets and why equities were the winner of 2021.

Inflation is now very high, CPI of 6.8%, PPI of 9.6%, and German PPI of 19.2% , tells you that inflation is out of control... And the Fed mistake was being too slow to address it head on... But as investments go, equities and real estate are two that can keep up with inflation... Bonds can not... Especially IG, mortgages and treasuries... HY is better, but all fixed income returns for bonds this year on the BB IN, solving for US, show negative YTD returns... And that just adds to the hugely negative real returns given inflation... Venture Cap and Private equity are also winners, but that is not as easy to invest in... But clearly the University endowments that printed 40-50% returns in the year ending June 30, show the bigger returns that can be garnered by these investments..

Biden Fed picks... Between BB and the WSJ, we have seen 10 names being put forward for 3 positions... Ferguson was BB's pick for VC of supervision, the WSJ has it going to Sarah Raskin... We know Ferguson from his days of VC of the Fed... Either would be better than Cordoray... For the others, we see Bostic being mentioned... We think he would be a solid pick... The others we do not know... Either way, the Fed will be on a mission in 2022 to get ahead of inflation, where they are so far behind that it will take some tough talk... Not only will the Fed raise rates, they will have to start running off the balance sheet...we think 2022 will be a second year of negative returns for rates...

Today we have the 7 year, but we think that will go ok... Friday is an early close and some wonder why we are even open this week given the activity... That does not mean we can't get a push in either direction, given lack of liquidity... But Omicron, bad weather in the West, and lack of focus, we do not expect much today or tomorrow... Hope we are wrong...

One last thing, the St Louis Fed put out a report saying that over 2.4 million people retired earlier than expected once Covid started...that would mean the excess number of people the Fed expected to be employed is much less... Probably means we are at full employment now..

Looks like the wu flu finally got me (and the wife, and the kids).

Firing up the ivermectin and Dr. Coates vitamin regimen.

Let's go Brandon, let's go Xi, and let's go Fauci.

cmk10 said:

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AG 2000' said:

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cmk10 said:

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Are we assuming WWR drops below $2.00?

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From looking at the charter over two years, it could go to a buck.

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That's not exciting at all…

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Do I have a gambling problem if I have an urge to average down for the millionth time?

My whole portfolio is pissing me off these days

cmk10 said:

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AG 2000' said:

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cmk10 said:

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Are we assuming WWR drops below $2.00?

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From looking at the charter over two years, it could go to a buck.

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That's not exciting at all…

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I wouldn't be concerned with the price action here or at any point until operations begin in 2023. It's a zero revenue company right now with no press(that's on management), tax loss season, no confirmation of plant construction beginning, and likely need to raise more capital for both working cap & completing the plant.

The bigger question I'm curious about is if Tesla wants synthetic graphite, who wants the natural stuff that they are producing? And why/what's the difference?

Still holding FWIW.