Meaning good time to enter?

I got out of the SPY when it got over $468. Made a little. Still holding the AMD calls. I am a up a little.

ETA. I should probably quit for the day while I am ahead.

BREwmaster said:

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Spoony Love said:

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If AAPL closes the day anywhere close to $173, I'll be eying those $175C lottos. Three of the last 4 OPEX Fridays have been positive days (September is the exception)

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I love stats like this... will join you if that happens.

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

Irish 2.0 said:

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

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Good enough to take calls overnight? What strike is the interest at?

Irish 2.0 said:

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

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AAPL too.

jwhitlock3 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

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Good enough to take calls overnight? What strike is the interest at?

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I wouldn't, but that's me. Most are ITM and there are too many to even try to post

Something brewing with NNOX? Stock is down today but my February and March calls are up 25% today.

Irish 2.0 said:

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jwhitlock3 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

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Good enough to take calls overnight? What strike is the interest at?

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I wouldn't, but that's me. Most are ITM and there are too many to even try to post

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Over 200k contracts on a few strikes for tomorrow, im still sitting on my hands. Tried an NVDA trade today and stopped out at breakeven.

ibdm98 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Spoony Love said:

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If AAPL closes the day anywhere close to $173, I'll be eying those $175C lottos. Three of the last 4 OPEX Fridays have been positive days (September is the exception)

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I love stats like this... will join you if that happens.

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Picked those a few seconds ago.

Spoony Love said:

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ibdm98 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Spoony Love said:

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If AAPL closes the day anywhere close to $173, I'll be eying those $175C lottos. Three of the last 4 OPEX Fridays have been positive days (September is the exception)

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I love stats like this... will join you if that happens.

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Picked those a few seconds ago.

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I got exactly 1 just to play along.

cptthunder said:

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Did I miss something in the $ASO earnings call/release
Beat estimates/increases YOY revenue and quarter to quarter and raised full year guidance/talk about strength of wearhouse supply for inventory/ increases amounts of online sales etc. etc and now down almost 20% since earnings

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May be a sector thing along with macro selling. $DKS has been getting pounded too.

..Ok that last sentence sounded funny. We need a laugh right now.

cptthunder said:

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Did I miss something in the $ASO earnings call/release
Beat estimates/increases YOY revenue and quarter to quarter and raised full year guidance/talk about strength of wearhouse supply for inventory/ increases amounts of online sales etc. etc and now down almost 20% since earnings

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Looks like a buying opportunity to me.

Irish 2.0 said:

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HOLY *****!! MASSIVE SPY CALL BLOCKS COMING IN ON CHEDDAR!!

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Could be end of quarter contract rolls

Que? What does that mean?

Looks like RIVN isn't going to get an exaggerated move and **** all the options players. Think the options implied like a 10% move. Still early though

Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

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True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

FDX lotto is going to print tomorrow.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

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True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

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$100 is the spot if it goes.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

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True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

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Earnings aren't out yet. I think they drop at 4:30 eastern.

I bought a P100/95 spread Monday morning before my employer blocked me from playing puts. It's my last bearish play while I'm employed with this company because they don't let employees make bearish plays.

I was up 300% today, but since it's my last bearish play for a while, I'm letting it ride. 16-bagger or zero. This company is way overvalued.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

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True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

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Earnings aren't out yet. I think they drop at 4:30 eastern.

I bought a P100/95 spread Monday morning before my employer blocked me from playing puts. It's my last bearish play while I'm employed with this company because they don't let employees make bearish plays.

I was up 300% today, but since it's my last bearish play for a while, I'm letting it ride. 16-bagger or zero. This company is way overvalued.

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Yes they are

$RIVN 3Q adj net loss $776Mm on revs $1Mm, in-line; says expect to start production in Georgia facility in 2024, expect to have capacity to produce up to 400,000 vehicles annually; says by end of December plan to have over 60 mobile service vans in service and 8 service centers.

— Tom (@TradingThomas3) December 16, 2021

Better breakdown

$RIVN earnings:

- Net loss $1.23B
- Adjusted loss $776M
- Revenue $1M
- Operations loss $776M
- Adjusted ebitda loss $727M

— Cheat Code TV (@cheatcode_tv) December 16, 2021

Markets after the FOMC meeting yesterday $SPY $QQQ $IWM pic.twitter.com/OlaFVt6w9O

— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) December 16, 2021

Ranger222 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

---

True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

---

Earnings aren't out yet. I think they drop at 4:30 eastern.

I bought a P100/95 spread Monday morning before my employer blocked me from playing puts. It's my last bearish play while I'm employed with this company because they don't let employees make bearish plays.

I was up 300% today, but since it's my last bearish play for a while, I'm letting it ride. 16-bagger or zero. This company is way overvalued.

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Yes they are

$RIVN 3Q adj net loss $776Mm on revs $1Mm, in-line; says expect to start production in Georgia facility in 2024, expect to have capacity to produce up to 400,000 vehicles annually; says by end of December plan to have over 60 mobile service vans in service and 8 service centers.

— Tom (@TradingThomas3) December 16, 2021

Better breakdown

$RIVN earnings:

- Net loss $1.23B
- Adjusted loss $776M
- Revenue $1M
- Operations loss $776M
- Adjusted ebitda loss $727M

— Cheat Code TV (@cheatcode_tv) December 16, 2021

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$1 million revenue for a company valued close to $100 billion. Yes, its all forward looking, but future earnings with high valuations have been slaughtered in this market. I'm expecting a big red candle tomorrow for RIVN

if you followed on the 65 P trade -- the IV rose on those over the course of the day and I went net free on a move from .08 to .23. Will be all about how the stock moves tomorrow

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If AMZN, F, insiders, and the Institiutions didn't own so much of it, I would typically agree.

However I'm watching orderflow right now and there is a massive reload seller at 106 trying to keep this down. Once (If) cleared, I could see this thing rocket or just pin to kill the premiums. There were way too many people shorting this today

Quote:

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However I'm watching orderflow right now and there is a massive reload seller at 106 trying to keep this down. Once (If) cleared, I could see this thing rocket or just pin to kill the premiums. There were way too many people shorting this today

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Like that

Max pain on RIVN for tomorrow is $119. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets pushed up tomorrow and then dumped Monday.

Spoony Love said:

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ibdm98 said:

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BREwmaster said:

---

Spoony Love said:

---

If AAPL closes the day anywhere close to $173, I'll be eying those $175C lottos. Three of the last 4 OPEX Fridays have been positive days (September is the exception)

---

I love stats like this... will join you if that happens.

---

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Picked those a few seconds ago.

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$AAPL 2021-12-23 C $182.5
Underlying: $172.16, % Diff: 6.01%

🐂🛍️🏛️
Bid-Ask: $1.05 - $1.07
Interest: 8,811
Volume: 30,835
IV: 45.03%

Daily $ Volume: $3,268,510
Sector: Technology

Details + emoji legend: https://t.co/tPnJY6nPcO

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 16, 2021

Ranger222 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Engine10 said:

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Very early. Yuge losses but big pre orders…still just a cash burning machine

---

True. But the huge losses were already known. Typically if the exaggerated move doesn't happen in the first few minutes, it isn't happening.

---

Earnings aren't out yet. I think they drop at 4:30 eastern.

I bought a P100/95 spread Monday morning before my employer blocked me from playing puts. It's my last bearish play while I'm employed with this company because they don't let employees make bearish plays.

I was up 300% today, but since it's my last bearish play for a while, I'm letting it ride. 16-bagger or zero. This company is way overvalued.

---

Yes they are

$RIVN 3Q adj net loss $776Mm on revs $1Mm, in-line; says expect to start production in Georgia facility in 2024, expect to have capacity to produce up to 400,000 vehicles annually; says by end of December plan to have over 60 mobile service vans in service and 8 service centers.

— Tom (@TradingThomas3) December 16, 2021

Better breakdown

$RIVN earnings:

- Net loss $1.23B
- Adjusted loss $776M
- Revenue $1M
- Operations loss $776M
- Adjusted ebitda loss $727M

— Cheat Code TV (@cheatcode_tv) December 16, 2021

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$1 million revenue for a company valued close to $100 billion. Yes, its all forward looking, but future earnings with high valuations have been slaughtered in this market. I'm expecting a big red candle tomorrow for RIVN

if you followed on the 65 P trade -- the IV rose on those over the course of the day and I went net free on a move from .08 to .23. Will be all about how the stock moves tomorrow

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I followed you on this and went net free as well today. Definitely a good play and easy to go net free on.

Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Anyone know of any other companies reporting that have similar stats?

Not reporting but in the same space -- I'm looking to open puts in LCID as well. This one is purely technical and about the chart. Just looks like a major bear flag on the daily chart as a potential right shoulder of a major H&S pattern is forming. I know there has been serious call flow in this name, that's why I keep looking at it, but I think its gonna test 30 again

Ranger222 said:

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Not reporting but in the same space -- I'm looking to open puts in LCID as well. This one is purely technical and about the chart. Just looks like a major bear flag on the daily chart as a potential right shoulder of a major H&S pattern is forming. I know there has been serious call flow in this name, that's why I keep looking at it, but I think its gonna test 30 again

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It's hanging on a massive volume shelf with a drop at 39. But also finished its fifth day in a row of higher high and higher low.

Hmmm

Ranger222 said:

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$1 million revenue for a company valued close to $100 billion. Yes, its all forward looking, but future earnings with high valuations have been slaughtered in this market. I'm expecting a big red candle tomorrow for RIVN

if you followed on the 65 P trade -- the IV rose on those over the course of the day and I went net free on a move from .08 to .23. Will be all about how the stock moves tomorrow

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I agree, I'm feeling short on RIVN. I'm a valuation rookie but trying to see the picture here.

So an R1 costs ~$70k. 71k preorders, about $5B in future sales across 2022/2024. 100k Amazon preorder @ $50k/van (guess?), throw in another $5B, let's just call it $10B in future sales across 2022-2024 and beyond. Let's just discard discounting for the moment as it only makes it worse.

Understanding that they'll be operating at a large loss for the next few years, deliveries won't start for a few years with rev recognition of above sales dependent on this as well, an Enterprise Value near $100B just feels wrong here. But I haven't compared with others in similar positions yet. Just seems like such a big risk w EV/Sales @ 10x and they aren't ratably delivering yet.

Am I missing anything here? Going to peek at the footnotes tonight after the kid goes to sleep. Wonder if they are counting on playing the credit market like Tesla. Snapped the FS from the shareholder letter.

Whelp. Here comes the $100 flush. Let's see how she does for the options people tomorrow