AgEng06 said:

---

You trying to go private on us and want to judge your market reach?

---

Danwell Home said:

---

That's what I was thinking. Identical volume in each. I don't have an option flow tracker to see if these hit at the same time

---

CrazyRichAggie said:

---

JP coming up in 10 minutes

---

LMCane said:

---

can we start to discuss longer term buys rather than just puts, calls and options?

I would like to stop working at the attorney job in a few years so need to get to FIRE

---

LMCane said:

---

CrazyRichAggie said:

---

JP coming up in 10 minutes

---

he knew what he was going to say three months ago.

or more accurately, the powers that be knew what they were going to do three months ago.

this is all theater for the media and the unwashed.

in reality- what could he even say that would make the markets drop?!

he will blather some words out of both sides of his mouth - and the market will celebrate.

---

Happy Fed Day: not all Fed Days are created =, but here’s a little historic data 🤔 pic.twitter.com/WKTVgn8D2m

— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) December 15, 2021

ProgN said:

---

LMCane said:

---

can we start to discuss longer term buys rather than just puts, calls and options?

I would like to stop working at the attorney job in a few years so need to get to FIRE

---

Put TTD on your watchlist. If it fills the gap at 75, then buy some and forget about it. We can come up with a group list this weekend from the board with entry prices for you to follow.

---

jsap said:

---

ProgN said:

---

LMCane said:

---

can we start to discuss longer term buys rather than just puts, calls and options?

I would like to stop working at the attorney job in a few years so need to get to FIRE

---

Put TTD on your watchlist. If it fills the gap at 75, then buy some and forget about it. We can come up with a group list this weekend from the board with entry prices for you to follow.

---

Do you think TTD will drop down to 75 at some point?

---

austinAG90 said:

---

Inflation has been soaring most of this year... With PPI nearing double digit levels of 9.6% and the CPI 6.8%, is it time for the Fed to get real about recognizing inflation?... Yes it is and they will do that today, the question is to what extent... They will accelerate tapering... They will increase their dot plots showing rate increases for 2022... But will they start discussions about policy sequencing? Meaning balance sheet reduction... The answer is probably not yet... Maybe a few meetings away.... We will repeat our scenarios from Monday as to what we see the odds of the Fed doing... Will they be aggressive? We think they are leaning in that direction... But with Omicron infections soaring, how fast is the Fed going to move... It took most of this year to get the Fed to finally back off from the word transitory, but we wonder how much of a move or signal they are willing to make... If they try to lean to the idea that inflation will resolve itself over time, then they risk losing more credibility... Here are the scenarios updated

Scenario 1... HAWKISH Move by the Fed..50%.. Here we expect the current tapering to double from 15 billion a month to 30 billion... That would be a reduction of 20 billion a month in treasuries and 10 billion of mortgages... The Fed dot plots, which indicate rate rises, will move from 1 to 3 for 2022... The yield curve will flatten as the front end, which is currently building in 1-2 rate rises, will adjust... 2 years will hit .90, on the way to what we think will eventually be 1.31.. 5 years will break 1.34 on the way to 1.60...given the expected flattening and a potential build in of a mistake of aggressive rate rises, we have not certain how much the back end of the yield curve moves...

Scenario 2 MODERATE. 35%. Here the Fed increases tapering by 50% from 15 billion to 22.5 billion... Treasuries tapering is increased from 10 billion a month to 15 billion... Mortgages from 5 to 7.5 billion... Dot plots show a move from 1 to 2 rate increases... Rates rally modestly as more is currently built in... 2 years move to .90-1% but not much more... The long end does ok and continues the range of 10 years from 1.70 high yield to 1.35 low yield... Equities would rally.

Scenario 3...DOVISH..15%. Here the Fed leaves tapering alone. 15 billion a month currently... And dot plots still 1-2 for next year... While markets may rally initially, the Fed would lose their credibility on fighting inflation... The curve would steepen with the long end doing worse... Equity markets would rally initially and then reverse... Those that are already blasting the Fed weekly, like El-Arian and Summers, would go ballistic... Those like Minerd of Guggenheim, who is already calling for a recession in 2022, would be praising the Fed... No way there is a recession in 2022.

Markets are quiet this morning biding time for the Fed announcement at 2 PM... We will be doing a hit with TD Wealth on Youtube at 9.15, but our 3PM hit was canceled... We see little moves this morning with 10 years just starting to break out of its 2 basis point overnight range... Volumes are about 60% or normal... Historically one should fade the trade movement after the presser and wait for the big trend to develop tomorrow morning , London time... But this is the most consequential Fed meeting this year...

Rates... Our view is that positions are pretty much hedged...but if the Fed gets serious as to where long rates are going, we could finally see our 1.75/1.85 before year end... If not the recent ranges should hold... Resistance at 1.35 and then at 1.22%... Back ups will first find support at 1.52/1.60 and 1.70... We had a long argument with a DC insider who still thinks that 1.85-2% is in the cards before year end... We do not see it... A big move like that would crater the stock market and reverse a big move like that... 2 years should break .70 on the way to .90... With an eventuality of 1.31... 5 years have support at 1.34 and then close to 1.50...

Equities... We saw a trade go through yesterday where one big "punter" paid 65 million and bought roughly 20,000 call options tied to the S+P that expire at the end of next week... We may have been early in our year end call for equities but many leveraged stock traders and volatility sensitive investors have derisked and a lot of retail equity buyers have been sellers since Black Friday. However, many more bearish threats have been discounted and there is plenty of buying power on the sidelines going forward...

Buckle up... It is going to be a volatile next few days...

---

Ranger222 said:

---

potential lotto play with FOMC - SNAP 47C .20

---

McInnis 03 said:

---

NQ went absolutely vertical

---

McInnis 03 said:

---

AMD back from demise too, there's your 140 crazyrich

---

CrazyRichAggie said:

---

McInnis 03 said:

---

AMD back from demise too, there's your 140 crazyrich

---

$140.65 is my next level...

---