--"It smells like Upjohn in here"

--"Whats Upjohn?"

--"Oh nothing much, what's up with you??"

I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.

TREX01 said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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How long can this AAPL run go?

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10-15 years?

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I'm thinking 30. Holding my 700 shares until then lol.

Triple_Bagger said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.

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Nobody knows. If they did, Tim Cook likely wouldn't have sold 2.4M shares at $148 a few months ago.

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This is just a normal Santa rally and money is flowing into the mega caps. This isn't a broad based rally.

ProgN said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.

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Nobody knows. If they did, Tim Cook likely wouldn't have sold 2.4M shares at $148 a few months ago.

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This is just a normal Santa rally and money is flowing into the mega caps. This isn't a broad based rally.

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There's several articles out there about the rise. Morgan Stanley has their PT at $200 now. They're saying that the augmented reality device and self-driving car are not baked into the price yet. Who knows who is right at this point. Just happy to be in at $120. Wish I would've thrown more into it.

Yeah, but stocks fluctuate and even AAPL will get punished in a correction. I bet it prints $120 again in '22.

ProgN said:

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Yeah, but stocks fluctuate and even AAPL will get punished in a correction. I bet it prints $120 again in '22.

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The last few 30% drops were 2008, 2012, & 2018.

Thanks very much. Do you feel the same about TTD?

agdaddy04 said:

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Thanks very much. Do you feel the same about TTD?

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In an IRA, yes. I can see it filling the gap at 75.

Mega caps will probably have more up days than down days this month, but they're frothy. It's easy to see earning season be more of a sell the news event when they report. If it were me, then I'd sell in my IRA and sit on a mountain of cash to see how it plays out. Inflation, geopolitical turmoil (Russia, China), fed being more hawkish and companies more than likely guiding expectations lower is a recipe for stocks to sell off. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see selling right after the beginning of the year before earnings. The bigs could bank profits but their tax liability isn't due for awhile.

Doing some self evaluation and I think I'm gonna try 2 things.

1. Trade a few tickers over and over again. I've advanced at identifying triggers and drawing key levels, but every ticker seems to have its own personality and I think it hurts me trying to trade so many different things.

2. Trade 2 weeks out or monthlies only.

I will figure this out. Until then I guess I'll keep paying market tuition.

Considering this strategy

checking in. Wow $AAPL.

In my opinion, what you are seeing with $AAPL is exposure to a risk asset that will survive even the toughest of times due to the strength of their balance sheet, small dividend, and continual growth.

As opposed to betting on high beta stocks that are going to get demolished. Some "new tech" tickers that I think help explain this phenomenon:

• DOCU
• SNAP
• TWTR
• UBER
• CRWD

On the opposite end, you can look at "old tech" flying high:

• GOOGL
• MSFT
• ORCL
• ACN
• HPQ
• QCOM

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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In my opinion, what you are seeing with $AAPL is exposure to a risk asset that will survive even the toughest of times due to the strength of their balance sheet, small dividend, and continual growth.

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I'm a complete idiot, but I believe you're right… I think AAPL is the last castle before the taper correction…

Things are scary so flock to AAPL which is almost like investing in a ETF at this point.

Howdy folks....This week was spent hunting without electronic communications so wasn't able to post up macros......I will be back in the saddle Monday and see if we can get some decent trades off prior to year end.....Here was some afternoon comments we put out...Enjoy...

CPI Relief Rally...Curve Steepens...Short End Better...Equites Mildly Higher

CPI came out at 6.8% today YOY, exactly on the expectation...Treasuries rallied as the fear was a print above 7% which would have forced the Fed to be more aggressive... Whoever thinks that 6.8% is anywhere near acceptable is not even close... These inflation numbers with the current rates makes no sense... 10 years, which came into the morning at 1.51, rallied to 1.45... We had resistance at 1.43... Now have backed off to 1.485... We read a report from Wells who are saying the Fed will only increase tapering by 50% next week for January and not the double we expect...so they have 22.5, or 15 and 7.5.. We think 30 which is 20 and 10 respectively... The Fed is way behind the curve and 6.8% does not give them any type of cover... Similarly Wells thinks that the Fed will only pencil in 2 rate hikes for next year, we will see, but 3 looks more reasonable.

We listened to a Macrovoice podcast today... The speaker said the Bank of England, the worlds oldest central bank, put out a report saying since 1400, yeh that's right 1400, the world has been in a disinflationary environment, and we have had only reversals of this dis-inflationary stance 8 times...Where real rates were negative... This is the 9th and the worst...our short term outlook is a week to a month, their short term is more like 30-50 years... Thought it interesting.

We keep getting asked where are equities going... We think the 5% S+P correction is about it for this year... And we think we see a bigger correction in the first quarter... We can't count how many bottoms of equity markets we have seen in the first three weeks of March...March of 2009 of 666 to then reach 4743 this year...March 23,2020 of 2191 to hit the same 4743... You get the gist...

Next week should be a wild one for rates...just as dealers and money managers are to closing their books, you are going to get one of the Hawkish Fed announcements, with a real fear of inflation... Probably the worst since September 2017, when 2 years went from 1.25 to 2.97, before dipping to .10 basis earlier this year... We will be in all week... Can't wait to see how this plays out... Will the bond vigilantes reawaken or will the algos keep them in check...have a good weekend

I sometimes like to look at what each of the indexes is doing. IWM is getting murdered. I think the Dow will fare pretty well comparatively.

hedge said:

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And what led you to that prognosis

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Let's look at this from the 2 angles because I was replying to Agdaddy04 regarding his IRA and this should not be applied to trading accounts because he will not have tax liability.

1) He has no risk of booking huge profits in his IRA. If he was asking about his taxable trading account, then I wouldn't suggest for him to sell AAPL or TTD, even though I can see them falling. They're leaders and funds love them. Yes, they'll probably selloff but trying to sell at highs and buying at lows in a taxable account isn't wise when you're in the best stocks at a much lower price, unless you DGAF about taxes.

2) The market is extended considering the headwinds that is in front of it. I listed those in a previous post above. Even the best of breed stocks will take it on the chin when market sentiment reverses. They will also be the leaders when the markets rally back. His entry price in AAPL is $120 and if he bought TTD in May, when we talked about it, then his cost is probably below $60. That is monster gains in an account that is tax free. He'll be able to buy both back but add even more shares and ride them up again. He's severely limited in the amount he can contribute yearly. How sick would you be if I'm right and AAPL prints $120 and TTD fills the gap at $75 but you've seen your account evaporate. Now compound that with the fact he might position himself to buy almost 2X the shares he originally and ride them back up?

Is it a risk, of course, but it's a calculated risk that looks more in his favor than the alternative.

hedge said:

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And what led you to that prognosis

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I'll pile on with Prog... put this in your pipe and smoke it:

8 mil 1 minute sell bar on AAPL right at the close. bank some profit agdaddy! big boys selling this rip. sure, maybe it hits 180-184 early next week, but it may then go back to being "fruit stock" and going sideways until the next correction. I remember this board in calls hoping to front run a big move, they dragged it sideways for what felt like an eternity.

Did you find success on your hunt?

Good to have you back, and your morning posts were missed.