Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Stock Markets

24,724,044 Views | 233434 Replies | Last: 4 min ago by Chef Elko
I bleed maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
McInnis 03 said:

McInnis 03 said:

Doing several of my scans..............I can find NOTHING right now that looks attractive to me.
Actually, I found a little gem called VTRS......gonna take a small play on JAN22 12.5c

Also IBM came up in a scan I consider to SHORT so if market gets weak, who knows, but it actually looks a bit bullish. This would be one to watch as "last guy to fail" if stuff hits fan.
I got some Viatris (VTRS) as a spin-off from Pfizer (PFE). Not sure what the name Viatris means, but it's a definite upgrade from Upjohn (their old brand).
wanderer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
--"It smells like Upjohn in here"

--"Whats Upjohn?"

--"Oh nothing much, what's up with you??"
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
what's the feeling on TSLA

supposedly Elon has been selling millions upon millions of his shares
azul_rain
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Im one more stupid tweet from unloading it and throwing it in a black hole, that being said I don't see tsla going down anytime soon
Spoony Love
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think you should never count Elon out on how to manipulate stock price.
Spoony Love
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SPY? You were supposed to be bearish today.

Looks like a double tits chart today.
Triple_Bagger
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Spoony Love said:

SPY? You were supposed to be bearish today.

Looks like a double tits chart today.
Surprising finish. Perhaps the Santa rally is still alive
McInnis 03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.
62strat
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TREX01 said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

How long can this AAPL run go?
10-15 years?
I'm thinking 30. Holding my 700 shares until then lol.
Triple_Bagger
How long do you want to ignore this user?
McInnis 03 said:

I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.
Nobody knows. If they did, Tim Cook likely wouldn't have sold 2.4M shares at $148 a few months ago.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Triple_Bagger said:

McInnis 03 said:

I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.
Nobody knows. If they did, Tim Cook likely wouldn't have sold 2.4M shares at $148 a few months ago.
This is just a normal Santa rally and money is flowing into the mega caps. This isn't a broad based rally.
agdaddy04
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ProgN said:

Triple_Bagger said:

McInnis 03 said:

I wish I knew why AAPL is doing what it's doing. This is madness.

I'm along for the ride, but it's still madness.
Nobody knows. If they did, Tim Cook likely wouldn't have sold 2.4M shares at $148 a few months ago.
This is just a normal Santa rally and money is flowing into the mega caps. This isn't a broad based rally.
There's several articles out there about the rise. Morgan Stanley has their PT at $200 now. They're saying that the augmented reality device and self-driving car are not baked into the price yet. Who knows who is right at this point. Just happy to be in at $120. Wish I would've thrown more into it.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yeah, but stocks fluctuate and even AAPL will get punished in a correction. I bet it prints $120 again in '22.
62strat
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ProgN said:

Yeah, but stocks fluctuate and even AAPL will get punished in a correction. I bet it prints $120 again in '22.
The last few 30% drops were 2008, 2012, & 2018.

agdaddy04
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
With that kind of prediction, since I have it in my IRA, it would be a no brainer to sell it soon then? If it went back down to $120, that would be over $50,000 in lost value. I guess finding the right opportunities to sell a stock I'm long on is what I still struggle with.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
agdaddy04 said:

With that kind of prediction, since I have it in my IRA, it would be a no brainer to sell it soon then? If it went back down to $120, that would be over $50,000 in lost value. I guess finding the right opportunities to sell a stock I'm long on is what I still struggle with.
If you were my client and it's in an IRA, then I'd suggest you sell it this month. If you're against that, then I'd suggest you at least sell half.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
62strat said:

ProgN said:

Yeah, but stocks fluctuate and even AAPL will get punished in a correction. I bet it prints $120 again in '22.
The last few 30% drops were 2008, 2012, & 2018.


Inflation is a way f'ing higher than what reported today. The consumer is already feeling the pinch in their wallets. AAPL has exceptional products but consumers won't have the same disposable income to buy them. Even APPL will sell off.
agdaddy04
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Thanks very much. Do you feel the same about TTD?
Triple_Bagger
How long do you want to ignore this user?
agdaddy04 said:

With that kind of prediction, since I have it in my IRA, it would be a no brainer to sell it soon then? If it went back down to $120, that would be over $50,000 in lost value. I guess finding the right opportunities to sell a stock I'm long on is what I still struggle with.
I'm trimming here but not selling all shares. I'm not familiar with IRA rules but if you could sell covered calls, that might be a good option. Sell some ITM long dated calls instead of selling the stock. That way you lock in profit and get premium. You could also buy puts with the covered call profits
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
agdaddy04 said:

Thanks very much. Do you feel the same about TTD?
In an IRA, yes. I can see it filling the gap at 75.

Mega caps will probably have more up days than down days this month, but they're frothy. It's easy to see earning season be more of a sell the news event when they report. If it were me, then I'd sell in my IRA and sit on a mountain of cash to see how it plays out. Inflation, geopolitical turmoil (Russia, China), fed being more hawkish and companies more than likely guiding expectations lower is a recipe for stocks to sell off. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see selling right after the beginning of the year before earnings. The bigs could bank profits but their tax liability isn't due for awhile.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Doing some self evaluation and I think I'm gonna try 2 things.

1. Trade a few tickers over and over again. I've advanced at identifying triggers and drawing key levels, but every ticker seems to have its own personality and I think it hurts me trying to trade so many different things.

2. Trade 2 weeks out or monthlies only.

I will figure this out. Until then I guess I'll keep paying market tuition.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Considering this strategy

$30,000 Millionaire
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
checking in. Wow $AAPL.
$30,000 Millionaire
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
In my opinion, what you are seeing with $AAPL is exposure to a risk asset that will survive even the toughest of times due to the strength of their balance sheet, small dividend, and continual growth.

As opposed to betting on high beta stocks that are going to get demolished. Some "new tech" tickers that I think help explain this phenomenon:

  • DOCU
  • SNAP
  • TWTR
  • UBER
  • CRWD

On the opposite end, you can look at "old tech" flying high:

  • GOOGL
  • MSFT
  • ORCL
  • ACN
  • HPQ
  • QCOM



irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

In my opinion, what you are seeing with $AAPL is exposure to a risk asset that will survive even the toughest of times due to the strength of their balance sheet, small dividend, and continual growth.


I'm a complete idiot, but I believe you're right… I think AAPL is the last castle before the taper correction…

Things are scary so flock to AAPL which is almost like investing in a ETF at this point.
austinAG90
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Howdy folks....This week was spent hunting without electronic communications so wasn't able to post up macros......I will be back in the saddle Monday and see if we can get some decent trades off prior to year end.....Here was some afternoon comments we put out...Enjoy...

CPI Relief Rally...Curve Steepens...Short End Better...Equites Mildly Higher

CPI came out at 6.8% today YOY, exactly on the expectation...Treasuries rallied as the fear was a print above 7% which would have forced the Fed to be more aggressive... Whoever thinks that 6.8% is anywhere near acceptable is not even close... These inflation numbers with the current rates makes no sense... 10 years, which came into the morning at 1.51, rallied to 1.45... We had resistance at 1.43... Now have backed off to 1.485... We read a report from Wells who are saying the Fed will only increase tapering by 50% next week for January and not the double we expect...so they have 22.5, or 15 and 7.5.. We think 30 which is 20 and 10 respectively... The Fed is way behind the curve and 6.8% does not give them any type of cover... Similarly Wells thinks that the Fed will only pencil in 2 rate hikes for next year, we will see, but 3 looks more reasonable.

We listened to a Macrovoice podcast today... The speaker said the Bank of England, the worlds oldest central bank, put out a report saying since 1400, yeh that's right 1400, the world has been in a disinflationary environment, and we have had only reversals of this dis-inflationary stance 8 times...Where real rates were negative... This is the 9th and the worst...our short term outlook is a week to a month, their short term is more like 30-50 years... Thought it interesting.

We keep getting asked where are equities going... We think the 5% S+P correction is about it for this year... And we think we see a bigger correction in the first quarter... We can't count how many bottoms of equity markets we have seen in the first three weeks of March...March of 2009 of 666 to then reach 4743 this year...March 23,2020 of 2191 to hit the same 4743... You get the gist...

Next week should be a wild one for rates...just as dealers and money managers are to closing their books, you are going to get one of the Hawkish Fed announcements, with a real fear of inflation... Probably the worst since September 2017, when 2 years went from 1.25 to 2.97, before dipping to .10 basis earlier this year... We will be in all week... Can't wait to see how this plays out... Will the bond vigilantes reawaken or will the algos keep them in check...have a good weekend
$30,000 Millionaire
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I sometimes like to look at what each of the indexes is doing. IWM is getting murdered. I think the Dow will fare pretty well comparatively.

azul_rain
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And what led you to that prognosis
Sully Dog
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
hedge said:

And what led you to that prognosis
Let's look at this from the 2 angles because I was replying to Agdaddy04 regarding his IRA and this should not be applied to trading accounts because he will not have tax liability.

1) He has no risk of booking huge profits in his IRA. If he was asking about his taxable trading account, then I wouldn't suggest for him to sell AAPL or TTD, even though I can see them falling. They're leaders and funds love them. Yes, they'll probably selloff but trying to sell at highs and buying at lows in a taxable account isn't wise when you're in the best stocks at a much lower price, unless you DGAF about taxes.

2) The market is extended considering the headwinds that is in front of it. I listed those in a previous post above. Even the best of breed stocks will take it on the chin when market sentiment reverses. They will also be the leaders when the markets rally back. His entry price in AAPL is $120 and if he bought TTD in May, when we talked about it, then his cost is probably below $60. That is monster gains in an account that is tax free. He'll be able to buy both back but add even more shares and ride them up again. He's severely limited in the amount he can contribute yearly. How sick would you be if I'm right and AAPL prints $120 and TTD fills the gap at $75 but you've seen your account evaporate. Now compound that with the fact he might position himself to buy almost 2X the shares he originally and ride them back up?

Is it a risk, of course, but it's a calculated risk that looks more in his favor than the alternative.
azul_rain
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I have some in my roth, but way more in my brokerage. Will consider selling roth, thanks prog
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Brewmaster
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
hedge said:

And what led you to that prognosis
I'll pile on with Prog... put this in your pipe and smoke it:

8 mil 1 minute sell bar on AAPL right at the close. bank some profit agdaddy! big boys selling this rip. sure, maybe it hits 180-184 early next week, but it may then go back to being "fruit stock" and going sideways until the next correction. I remember this board in calls hoping to front run a big move, they dragged it sideways for what felt like an eternity.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Did you find success on your hunt?

Good to have you back, and your morning posts were missed.
Brewmaster
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
austinAG90 said:



We keep getting asked where are equities going... We think the 5% S+P correction is about it for this year... And we think we see a bigger correction in the first quarter... We can't count how many bottoms of equity markets we have seen in the first three weeks of March...March of 2009 of 666 to then reach 4743 this year...March 23,2020 of 2191 to hit the same 4743... You get the gist...

Next week should be a wild one for rates...just as dealers and money managers are to closing their books, you are going to get one of the Hawkish Fed announcements, with a real fear of inflation... Probably the worst since September 2017, when 2 years went from 1.25 to 2.97, before dipping to .10 basis earlier this year... We will be in all week... Can't wait to see how this plays out... Will the bond vigilantes reawaken or will the algos keep them in check...have a good weekend
he's still in street clothes, but maybe he's coming to town! #santa rally but might be a bumpy sleigh ride!



great posts as always austinAg!
First Page Last Page
Page 4730 of 6670
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.