Jet Black said:

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How is the day before thanksgiving usually?

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Green day 35 of the last 50 years

The silver lining with WWR continuing to be down is that I'm very close to holding some shares for a year (first shares purchased on 12/8/20) so any upcoming sells can be counted towards a long-term taxable basis.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Missed the last couple days as I operated till 11 pm last
night.

I liked 30K's chart assessment of HD the other night.

Dec 17 400P is .50-.61 bid-ask. IV is low. Getting a fair amt of volume on Fidelity. What's everyone think about that?

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I'd push those puts out to January if it were me. Santa rally could hurt you pretty bad.

wanderer said:

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The silver lining with WWR continuing to be down is that I'm very close to holding some shares for a year (first shares purchased on 12/8/20) so any upcoming sells can be counted towards a long-term taxable basis.

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As far as I know, there isn't any difference between long-term and short-term losses for tax purposes.

WWR killing my portfolio now too but I think OA has been clear he didn't expect it to do much until 2022 so while it would be great for a run, I just leave it alone as it's a true long term investment

Just wait until 2029, man. It'll surge past $7 per diluted share and you can take your 2% annualized gains (really -8% if accounting for inflation) and live it up.

Socialism Sucks said:

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Another interesting note is that NOVONIX is make synthetic graphite. WWR is natural graphite. Correct me if I'm wrong, but natural graphite flake is preferred over synthetic for battery anode material.

Looking at the chart on NVNXF, make me hope the same kind of move is headed WWR's way in the near future.

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In a nutshell, synthetic is generally more expensive but better performing. WWR enriches natural to make up for degradation, but may increase cost a bit.

But natural WWR is cleaner from ESG persepctive as synthetic raw materials are tied to fossil fuel industry.

Here is a video with way more detail.

gougler08 said:

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WWR killing my portfolio now too but I think OA has been clear he didn't expect it to do much until 2022 so while it would be great for a run, I just leave it alone as it's a true long term investment

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This is splitting hairs (and definitely isn't a shot at OA) but there are multiple posts & tweets that call out Q4 2021 as the beginning of the upward trend. I realize it is crazy to expect that anyone can properly project the time a stock will make a significant move (except for Elliot wavers, they always nail it ). No apologies are needed as everyone here are big boys/girls and assume their own risk.


I'm still in it for the long haul, it's just that sulking in the down times makes the good times that much better. Or at least that's what I keep telling myself....

So if you just got a warning and didn't make another day trade to get your account locked (to closing transactions only), i believe you're fine. Just don't make another day trade (at all, including opening a spread in the morning and buying back one leg in the afternoon) and you should be able to trade spreads no problem. Used to be you could just wait until your rolling 4 day trades in 5 days was back in shape but I believe they changed the rules and now that account is flagged as a pdt account until you close it, so no more day trading in that one until you get it over 25k. And even if you get over 25k and can day trade it again, if it closes under 25k one night you better not make another day trade until you get another close over 25k. I'm unfortunately fairly well versed in this scenario (my experience is with td but I believe it's a finra rule)

WWR should be putting out a PR update on their overseas pilot production by Feb at latest. Then its completed construction of their full scale production facility in '22, and production in '23.

Big thanks to OA for sharing this gem.

Here's what I'm tracking for IWM tomorrow after studying the AH trading and RTY.

I think we open and go red fairly quickly down to somewhere between $230.50 and $230.85. There's a chance it gets all of that in the pre market session and we open green.

I think the 1st half of the day, either from the open bell or after the first hour depending on how the above plays out, is a bull run up to between $232.50 and $233. Then the second half of the day corrects down to near today's close around $231.25 $231.85.

Will update in the morning prior to open. Will be looking at either $232 or $232.50 weekly calls if the setup holds with an exit at target and no plan to hold through Thanksgiving.

Wednesday Macros....

Mild Risk Off...Covid Vs Inflation...Dovish NZeal Rate Hike...Fomc Minutes

Three month libor has hit a recent high moving from a low of .1143 on September 9 to over .18 this morning... While the actual move is only 7 basis points, this directional move of higher rates is now ingrained in many products, and we expect it to continue, dramatically in some areas...

Today we have 29 pieces of data being stuffed in due to the holiday tomorrow... The most important in our view is the PCE Deflator, where the expectation of 5.1% should bring shocks to the Fed as they try to keep interest rates in check until next year... The other important piece are the FOMC minutes, where we hope to get clues to where the Fed is going with tapering... And whether it looks like they have criteria to speed up the tapering... It could move the markets, where we expect minimal liquidity, if they deviate from expectations..

Rates.. We saw buying from the Japanese as they went bargain hunting in the 10 year space, where they got their Black Friday bargains. 10 years are 10 cheaper than where the Japanese last saw them on Monday... But that rally did not hold... Aggressive tightening talk from ECB members, who are now viewing the rising Covid cases more manageable than the soaring inflation...Germany had another failed auction of 15 year paper...but to be clear, this is a common event.. Could you imagine treasuries not having a clearing bid?... Treasuries hit their low yields as Asia closed and London opened... And have now reversed and are only up marginally... We do not expect the 1.70 to be hit today as the next move for treasuries should be the month end re-allocations... Based on a Wells report we see equities being sold for bonds Monday and Tuesday of next week... But if 1.70 were to break, than 1.76 should hold in... We are still bearish, but we see the recent move as an exhaustion move... And we are not ready to move beyond our 5 year objective of 1.31 just yet...

Fed... No speeches the rest of the week...just the FOMC minutes later today... Powell will testify next week along with Yellen in front of Congress.. This is earlier than normally expected because they wanted to get it in before the Fed goes into their December 14/15 meeting black out period. Powell will be peppered about inflation... And may move the markets... New Zealand overnight made a dovish raise in rates of 25 basis... Where some had expected a 50 move.

Oil... BB choose their words carefully this morning, calling the Biden release of the strategic reserve "underwhelming"... 50 million barrels is a drop in the bucket... And given that most of it being bought has to be replaced is another reason oil ended higher yesterday.. The fact that a large amount of it was sour crude, means that some of this may be exported... And the irony is that may go to China, according to BB... Lets call it as it is...if you want lower oil than take the gloves off from the banks and let them fund fracking, which Biden is trying to avoid from the fear of the progressives... But if you want lower oil and lower gas prices, than you need to be flexible on fracking.

Have a great Thanksgiving... We expect to be around the full day and will update as we see it...especially if the numbers push 10 years to either 1.70 or 1.60

BlueTaze said:

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WWR should be putting out a PR update on their overseas pilot production by Feb at latest. Then its completed construction of their full scale production facility in '22, and production in '23.

Big thanks to OA for sharing this gem.

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I can't resist, I'm loading up on more. Diamond hands *****es.