AG 2000' said:
Anyone have a line on why everything took a giant dump at the end of the day? Talking macros.
What was the catalyst?
Short week and low volume usually too. I didn't look at it today, but I bet it's below the avg a good bit.
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Short week and low volume usually too. I didn't look at it today, but I bet it's below the avg a good bit.
$DXY on the move up as well, wondering if that had any effect on the risk-off move there at the end.
Don't be fooled by any gap up in the morning. If it gaps over the 5DMA give it an hour to see if the market will hold it before doing anything. If it can't hold the 5DMA, the shorts are on the table.
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-Fed is buying $120 billion per month.Red Rover said:
2-yr yields moved up substantially today, the Fed following through on tapering is looking more real, the minutes of the Nov Fed meeting will be published on Wed., short holiday trading week, all the stuff Prog said, and the Cowboys looked bad. All reasons for the market to dump.
-The reduction is $15 billion per month or 8 months.
-The $15 billion breaks out into $10 billion Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgaged back securities.
-The ball to watch is that TRILLION dollars plus the banks gave back to the Fed sitting in the New York Repo. That's another 8 months of funds of propping...$Trillion/$120 billion.
-Depending on how the banks re-enter mortgage and other lending segments - could be a squeeze play. Banks are suppose to re-enter these areas, mortgages and other lending, and get the Fed out; hence, dollars flooded the system months ago for banks to lend but they gave it back (lent) to the Fed until later when they(banks) want/need it.. If you been paying attention to the bank that was the poster boy of "bad", Wells Fargo, you'll remember they ditched personal lines of credit and other risky ventures back in July, got their mortgage and loan portfolio in order and still somewhat an ongoing process. Wells is moving quickly at getting their house in order. (In order for what?) I'm watching these guys because I think their actions are signaling when the Fed will actually pull out and banks resume what they are suppose to be doing.
TLDR - Stock Market may pullback some...like to SP 3800 to 4200 where the big banks said it would be at year end. I think that's a "maybe". I don't see a major correction. Too much money still in the monetary pipeline policy to keep things as-is for months,....mathematically 16+ months more.
My 2 cents.
Now, regarding the other stuff. If somebody starts firing rockets, I guess we'll fire rockets back..?
I think WF reversed its decision to close the lines of credit, I don't know if they are issuing new ones
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Got it. Thank you!
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I was going to take this week off trading, but F it. I'll compile a list of names I'm interested in on the short side in this post.
INTC: inverted hammer today. A weakening company, IMO, and one with recent downward pressure on the daily chart and is looking at potentially forming an inverter W on monthly chart. May look for put spreads or straight short for tomorrow.
AAPL: A personal favorite long, but had a doji or inverted hammer on the daily chart and feels a bit price extended. This could be a big mover short tomorrow or maybe for puts this week.
NKE had a nice red inverted hammer. This one hasn't had it's big down move yet so might be a good one to jump on early if premarket macros still look weak. This is another that feels extended. It has had large green-red-green candles on the weekly chart and wouldn't surprise me to open red and fall another 3-4% by Wednesday.
MSFT had a 1% loss today, but ended on a red hammer. It closed close to 5SMA. If we continue this move down I see MSFT testing the 29-day around 331-333. Below that there is a long way to go for the 50-day close to $315.
GOOGL already had a big move down, so I'm not jumping on this one. If it confirms below $2910 and forms that inverted W on daily chart, this one might continue downward.
AMC I'm very careful with anything short on these meme stocks, but I'm watching this one. I think we're headed back to the mid $30s again soon. If we get continuation tomorrow I might jump in a bit to see if it will plunge by Wednesday.
INTC: inverted hammer today. A weakening company, IMO, and one with recent downward pressure on the daily chart and is looking at potentially forming an inverter W on monthly chart. May look for put spreads or straight short for tomorrow.
AAPL: A personal favorite long, but had a doji or inverted hammer on the daily chart and feels a bit price extended. This could be a big mover short tomorrow or maybe for puts this week.
NKE had a nice red inverted hammer. This one hasn't had it's big down move yet so might be a good one to jump on early if premarket macros still look weak. This is another that feels extended. It has had large green-red-green candles on the weekly chart and wouldn't surprise me to open red and fall another 3-4% by Wednesday.
MSFT had a 1% loss today, but ended on a red hammer. It closed close to 5SMA. If we continue this move down I see MSFT testing the 29-day around 331-333. Below that there is a long way to go for the 50-day close to $315.
GOOGL already had a big move down, so I'm not jumping on this one. If it confirms below $2910 and forms that inverted W on daily chart, this one might continue downward.
AMC I'm very careful with anything short on these meme stocks, but I'm watching this one. I think we're headed back to the mid $30s again soon. If we get continuation tomorrow I might jump in a bit to see if it will plunge by Wednesday.
As for AAPL I'm with you on this sentiment. At least that's what I wish for. But it's been crazy gains lately. That's why I think it's extended as well.
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Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
I subscribed to unusual whales. Still have no clue what I'm doing.
But I looked at a couple things and LCID showed up with a ton of bullish flow, but the price was down $4 today. I wonder what tomorrow brings?
But I looked at a couple things and LCID showed up with a ton of bullish flow, but the price was down $4 today. I wonder what tomorrow brings?
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
Weren't you trying to sell some land?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Brother, Taylor is 90 miles away (one way) from me.Bob Knights Liver said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
Weren't you trying to sell some land?
I need them to move that plant 75 miles north so an employee commute is possible, from a housing development, built by a developer, I want to sell land to. I'm not asking for much (HA!), but dang-it, I could have helped them out.
I'm not sure if they announced it before, but their factory is already under construction and it looks massive. The same regarding TSLA's factory under construction.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
Fwiw, the rumor in these parts is that DIS has purchased 800 acres somewhere between Salado and Jarrell.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Brother, Taylor is 90 miles away (one way) from me.Bob Knights Liver said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
Weren't you trying to sell some land?
I need them to move that plant 75 miles north so an employee commute is possible, from a housing development, built by a developer, I want to sell land to. I'm not asking for much (HA!), but dang-it, I could have helped them out.
I have no way to prove it, but I've heard it from multiple sources that are independent of one another.
Heard that as well ProgN
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I think my next trip down I'm going to drop some bread, or corn, or somethin' to give these folks a trail a little north toward me.ProgN said:Fwiw, the rumor in these parts is that DIS has purchased 800 acres somewhere between Salado and Jarrell.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Brother, Taylor is 90 miles away (one way) from me.Bob Knights Liver said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Samsung Electronics picks Taylor, TX for $17 billion chip-making plant.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-set-to-announce-17-billion-chip-plant-in-texas-11637631357?mod=mw_latestnews
Weren't you trying to sell some land?
I need them to move that plant 75 miles north so an employee commute is possible, from a housing development, built by a developer, I want to sell land to. I'm not asking for much (HA!), but dang-it, I could have helped them out.
I have no way to prove it, but I've heard it from multiple sources that are independent of one another.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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If you're between Waco and Austin, have a property that is large enough for a house or your property could be divided so another house could be built and you could sell it, and you happen to be serviced by a small water entity company....go reserve or buy an additional water meter now/tomorrow. Don't forget you'll be charged an additional monthly fee for the meter, like $50 to $75 a month. You can thank me later when we all get together for the WWR party.
I feel like this rumor has been going on for years. I haven't looked at their stuff in a while but I thought the parks really aren't good money makers. It's film and streaming that is where they make the big bucks. Also 800 acres feels small. Google says Disney world is 25k acres. I know they wouldn't necessarily go that big ever again, but you would think a couple thousand at least.
$UPST has been savaged, down 50% from its high. I'm watching this for a reversal to test the 100, and at least touch $220 again.
I think $HD has probably topped.
No idea if true, but Disneyland is only 500 acres, so wouldn't discount just by size.
I love Ferraris, but I think $RACE is also extended.
272/262 Dec 3 looks attractive.
272/262 Dec 3 looks attractive.
Disney, if anything, would put one of those resort type properties like they have in Hawaii.lobwedgephil said:
No idea if true, but Disneyland is only 500 acres, so wouldn't discount just by size.
$NVDA might be a good day trade tomorrow.
Actually, very easy to trade. You want to see where it opens. If it opens above today's close, you use today's close (or the IB period low) as the bottom. you don't want to see it below $313 if you're bullish. If you're bearish, you want to fill that gap below $313.
So I guess, Theta warrior style:
11/26 330C above 323, S/L 320
11/26 305P below 313, S/L 316
Actually, very easy to trade. You want to see where it opens. If it opens above today's close, you use today's close (or the IB period low) as the bottom. you don't want to see it below $313 if you're bullish. If you're bearish, you want to fill that gap below $313.
So I guess, Theta warrior style:
11/26 330C above 323, S/L 320
11/26 305P below 313, S/L 316
Rule 1! does that apply to cars too? lol$30,000 Millionaire said:
I love Ferraris, but I think $RACE is also extended.
272/262 Dec 3 looks attractive.
Cyber stocks kind of overdone as well.
$CRWD
$DDOG
Data Dog rejected off the 21 today. Crowdstrike has been savaged. Probably not high probability enough to play.
$CRWD
$DDOG
Data Dog rejected off the 21 today. Crowdstrike has been savaged. Probably not high probability enough to play.
I don't own one. I will probably get one eventually. Bad optics to do that, though.
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think $HD has probably topped.
Yep and over extended with a nice reverse hammer as well.
Russell closed below it's prior supply breakout. This is the index to watch IMO. I tend to think it will bounce from here, but who knows.
I have made some good returns on selling naked puts on NVDA the last few months.$30,000 Millionaire said:
$NVDA might be a good day trade tomorrow.
Actually, very easy to trade. You want to see where it opens. If it opens above today's close, you use today's close (or the IB period low) as the bottom. you don't want to see it below $313 if you're bullish. If you're bearish, you want to fill that gap below $313.
So I guess, Theta warrior style:
11/26 330C above 323, S/L 320
11/26 305P below 313, S/L 316
Last post for tonight:
- FB gets interesting above 353. You could take a long here, cut 336. I think it could be working on a C&H.
- AMZN surprised me today after it had a great opening. It's on decent support here. A 3600/3650 could be a good trade for this Friday. I would treat as a lotto. Lower cost would be 3600/3620 or 3610/3630
well done.
Y'all, I just can't.....Oh Elon.....
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Elon’s Yelp review of JPMorgan is lit pic.twitter.com/JvgdXGGS5k
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Bestbuy with the 10% drop
Tuesday Macros...
Global Rates Soaring as Inflation Fears Accelerate...and Its 7 Year Time
Global rates are soaring from treasuries to EGBs... New records in the short end as 5 years reached our 1.31 objective yesterday and are another 5 basis beyond that... But now the curve is bear steepening as the back end is starting to lose their seniority... Markets are building in a rate hike in June of 22 and two more beyond that...Bostic was out saying it was time for the Fed to consider accelerating the tapering...EGBs are getting slaughtered with their 10 year space back about 7 basis points... This morning European PMI's came out stronger than expected and ECB governors were talking about ending stimulus and warning about complacency when it comes to inflation... We said yesterday that it is Covid versus Inflation... And even though Covid is accelerating, Inflation is winning... And we recommend the BB Big Take article today talking about the disaster in supply chains...
Rates...could reverse on a dime if Covid starts to win again... But if the higher rate regime continues and more stops on the longs take place, 5 years could get to 1.50 next... 10 years , currently 1.66, have support at 1.70 and 1.76... 7 Year auctions are sometimes turning points in the markets... In this environment it could get ugly this afternoon... Then , given holiday liquidity and year end books starting to close, it could be a disaster... Or rates could find support and reverse... But higher rates and a less accommodative Fed are here to stay....
Earlier in the year we did a call with one of our top sales people to a bank in Louisiana... At that time 5 years were around .90... We said we thought they would reach between 1.25-1.31 before year end... They thought we were too aggressive, but they invited us to speak at their board meeting a few weeks after... We repeated our call... Needless to say when 5 years rallied to .60, we looked like we did not know what we were talking about... But now with our levels reached and breached, we feel vindicated...
We will update further later this morning...
Global Rates Soaring as Inflation Fears Accelerate...and Its 7 Year Time
Global rates are soaring from treasuries to EGBs... New records in the short end as 5 years reached our 1.31 objective yesterday and are another 5 basis beyond that... But now the curve is bear steepening as the back end is starting to lose their seniority... Markets are building in a rate hike in June of 22 and two more beyond that...Bostic was out saying it was time for the Fed to consider accelerating the tapering...EGBs are getting slaughtered with their 10 year space back about 7 basis points... This morning European PMI's came out stronger than expected and ECB governors were talking about ending stimulus and warning about complacency when it comes to inflation... We said yesterday that it is Covid versus Inflation... And even though Covid is accelerating, Inflation is winning... And we recommend the BB Big Take article today talking about the disaster in supply chains...
Rates...could reverse on a dime if Covid starts to win again... But if the higher rate regime continues and more stops on the longs take place, 5 years could get to 1.50 next... 10 years , currently 1.66, have support at 1.70 and 1.76... 7 Year auctions are sometimes turning points in the markets... In this environment it could get ugly this afternoon... Then , given holiday liquidity and year end books starting to close, it could be a disaster... Or rates could find support and reverse... But higher rates and a less accommodative Fed are here to stay....
Earlier in the year we did a call with one of our top sales people to a bank in Louisiana... At that time 5 years were around .90... We said we thought they would reach between 1.25-1.31 before year end... They thought we were too aggressive, but they invited us to speak at their board meeting a few weeks after... We repeated our call... Needless to say when 5 years rallied to .60, we looked like we did not know what we were talking about... But now with our levels reached and breached, we feel vindicated...
We will update further later this morning...
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