Looks like SNDL held up just above .82
Stock Markets
25,098,231 Views |
233835 Replies |
Last: 5 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Tomas Hermensa said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
Rivian has a higher market cap, by a large margin, than GM and Ford.
EV is clearly in a bubble because all of the big boys can and will produce EVs. Saturated market. This will be a great collapse eventually.
I agree with this but how do you profit if premiums are juiced for long expiry puts on TSLA and Rivian? Call credit spreads?
May 950/1050 on TSLA is 1:1 risk to reward. 760/960 is $166 in credit. You'd only need Tsla to trade under $925 to make profit on that. $3,400 risk per contract to potentially make $16,600. There's a reason it's priced the way it is.
BREwmaster said:
BIGC
12/17 65/70C is .75-- it's a double at SP of $63. beyond that is net free gravy!
I'm also long a couple lotto 11/19 60/65's, but degenerate, probably not worth following me.
Almost same R/R as a 60/70
This should be good for SNDL this week
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-republicans-move-decriminalize-marijuana-federal-level-2021-11-15/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-republicans-move-decriminalize-marijuana-federal-level-2021-11-15/
KR looks on it's way to closing a gap at $45.21. It's already 75% of the way there. The only way to cash in on it would be to buy Dec $43's for under $1.50 (unless you're feeling ballsy with expiring weekly calls.. $0.14 for the Nov $44's to potentially profit $1.10.. but no time for it to **** around). Then hope it gets there quicker rather than later to make $0.75 profit (plus any premium from volatility boost or theta premium).
If you jump in on this, be quick with the sell trigger when approaching the target. This move will top it out in a "b" wave before dropping down to the low $30's.
If you jump in on this, be quick with the sell trigger when approaching the target. This move will top it out in a "b" wave before dropping down to the low $30's.
Yep 110%, buying more tomorrow, especially if it dips below $2.$30,000 Millionaire said:BREwmaster said:yeah this and CIDM, making my week (sarcasm). CIDM rev slight beat, but earnings miss....trading around $2 AH, so might be a nice swing for some here.Ccutamu said:35M share offering. SMDH.tlepoC said:
Who just dumped their CLOV? Wasn't me
CIDM is doing exactly what they should be. BTD in my opinion.
11/26 44's might work, buy an extra week.
or one could do lotto style vertical, 43/44c this week, cost .23, at 43.50 they're a double, we go net free and hold 1 runner for expiration day (3x + bagger).
or one could do lotto style vertical, 43/44c this week, cost .23, at 43.50 they're a double, we go net free and hold 1 runner for expiration day (3x + bagger).
Is big $ just going to absorb all of Elon's sells? I just don't see how it doesn't fill that gap and test the breakout i Elon really wants to sell.$30,000 Millionaire said:
$TSLA - I think 1,000 is going to be support for a while. it will take real effort to break through it and stay underneath
I dont know, IV is 34.52%. Earnings not until December 2. Maybe it crawls for a couple weeks and then spikes after hours after earnings before resuming downward. And maybe it hits sooner and is an earnings tank.BREwmaster said:
11/26 44's might work, buy an extra week.
or one could do lotto style vertical, 43/44c this week, cost .23, at 43.50 they're a double, we go net free and hold 1 runner for expiration day (3x + bagger).
PTON couldn't possibly go lower…
2021: Hold my beer
2021: Hold my beer
*Peloton Interactive Begins $1 Billion Public Offering of Common Stock $PTON
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 16, 2021
MARA continuing to drop
watching and wondering when/if to buy in
E said:
MARA continuing to drop
Tracking bitcoin
PROG with some nice action
Tuesday Macros.....
Goldman Raises S+P Target to 5100 ....Fed Decision Imminent...Big Move Ahead
The S+P futures tumbled after going higher as the Biden/Xi call was going on, then dropped to the lows of the overnight session until Goldman came out raising their S+P target for 2022 to 5100, up about 10% for 2022...Meanwhile the treasury market is in waiting mode after dropping on the implementation of tapering yesterday... 10 years hit 1.63 yesterday while 5 years hit 1.265...we think this is the beginning of the next leg lower in treasury prices... It did not preclude IG corporate issuance, where one service said 22 billion came yesterday while another saw it as 19 billion... Either way a good start to the week, and as we have said all along, as long as new issue credit issuance is solid ,the credit markets, and more than likely the equity markets, will be ok for now.
Retail sales and Industrial Production are out today and could be noisy, but all indications are that the economy is strong... We have 6 Fed speakers today... Bullard will be on BB TV...other Hawks are out there, being George, Harker and Bostic... Daly will speak later...Bullard, Harker and Daly look like market related topics...BUT THE REAL MOVE WILL BE THE FED CHAIR ... Announcement where the Senate banking chairman was told it was imminent... No later than Thanksgiving... Outside of a blip of uncertainty, we doubt that either choice can avoid raising rates with the current inflation numbers... Fed is so far behind the curve we do not see how a major correction can be avoided, but probably not until the first quarter of next year...We read a Jefferies piece yesterday where they think 2022 is the "War For Labor" where unemployment gets to 3%, creating the tightest labor market since the 1950's... Tight labor markets mean higher wage inflation.
Watch out below.. The Move Index, an index showing the yield curve which is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of volatilities on the CT2, CT5, CT10, and CT30. Treasury volatility has move up over 20 points since mid October, about 33%... 81.59, highest since April 2020... Meanwhile, the US Government Securities Liquidity Index closed at a 20 month peak last week, indicating worsening credit conditions...
Rates... 10 years had some support yesterday at 1.62, then 1.70 after that... Resistance is 1.57 and 1.52... 5 years got through 1.25 yesterday but did not stay there long...we still think 1.31 is the next objective... ..we think rates are going higher. Long bond seems sticky around 2%, but more concession needs to be built in for the 20 year tomorrow.
There continues to be strong interest in the credit space by overseas investors... One broker reported that they saw buy interest for over a billion of corporates in the overnight session... So while we are bearish on treasuries, the credit space seems good for now...
Goldman Raises S+P Target to 5100 ....Fed Decision Imminent...Big Move Ahead
The S+P futures tumbled after going higher as the Biden/Xi call was going on, then dropped to the lows of the overnight session until Goldman came out raising their S+P target for 2022 to 5100, up about 10% for 2022...Meanwhile the treasury market is in waiting mode after dropping on the implementation of tapering yesterday... 10 years hit 1.63 yesterday while 5 years hit 1.265...we think this is the beginning of the next leg lower in treasury prices... It did not preclude IG corporate issuance, where one service said 22 billion came yesterday while another saw it as 19 billion... Either way a good start to the week, and as we have said all along, as long as new issue credit issuance is solid ,the credit markets, and more than likely the equity markets, will be ok for now.
Retail sales and Industrial Production are out today and could be noisy, but all indications are that the economy is strong... We have 6 Fed speakers today... Bullard will be on BB TV...other Hawks are out there, being George, Harker and Bostic... Daly will speak later...Bullard, Harker and Daly look like market related topics...BUT THE REAL MOVE WILL BE THE FED CHAIR ... Announcement where the Senate banking chairman was told it was imminent... No later than Thanksgiving... Outside of a blip of uncertainty, we doubt that either choice can avoid raising rates with the current inflation numbers... Fed is so far behind the curve we do not see how a major correction can be avoided, but probably not until the first quarter of next year...We read a Jefferies piece yesterday where they think 2022 is the "War For Labor" where unemployment gets to 3%, creating the tightest labor market since the 1950's... Tight labor markets mean higher wage inflation.
Watch out below.. The Move Index, an index showing the yield curve which is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of volatilities on the CT2, CT5, CT10, and CT30. Treasury volatility has move up over 20 points since mid October, about 33%... 81.59, highest since April 2020... Meanwhile, the US Government Securities Liquidity Index closed at a 20 month peak last week, indicating worsening credit conditions...
Rates... 10 years had some support yesterday at 1.62, then 1.70 after that... Resistance is 1.57 and 1.52... 5 years got through 1.25 yesterday but did not stay there long...we still think 1.31 is the next objective... ..we think rates are going higher. Long bond seems sticky around 2%, but more concession needs to be built in for the 20 year tomorrow.
There continues to be strong interest in the credit space by overseas investors... One broker reported that they saw buy interest for over a billion of corporates in the overnight session... So while we are bearish on treasuries, the credit space seems good for now...
Just a heads up, if you think the Rittenhouse verdict yields any societal unrest, $DGLY would be a GREAT friday lotto, the 1.50c's for Friday are .05-.10 and if things get hairy DGLY USUALLY reacts to such events.
Jan 6 was an AMAZING scalp day for DGLY
Jan 6 was an AMAZING scalp day for DGLY
I've owned "dogly" for a little while...been waiting for it to move. yestiddy was encouraging.
edit: cold feet stop loss saved me.
edit: cold feet stop loss saved me.
Bitcoin down 10%. MARA down 40%. Makes sense
SEC investigation hurting
I'll just buy those covered calls back now and wait for the next spike to do it again$30,000 Millionaire said:
Bitcoin down 10%. MARA down 40%. Makes sense
Irish 2.0 said:
PTON couldn't possibly go lower…
2021: Hold my beer*Peloton Interactive Begins $1 Billion Public Offering of Common Stock $PTON
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 16, 2021
Of course it is green now. I never understand how these companies do it after and offering
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Conspiracy theory - the VIX calls for this month end tomorrow (trading ends today) so we may hold on to a flat or small green day today and then get the OPEX dump tomorrow after MMs have taken all of retail's premium.
SPX has a HUGE OI on 4600, 4650, and 4700......some dealer is making S/R lines on these numbers and this will all unwind Friday morning. Perhaps that 4700 resistance finally goes away Friday open.....Tomas Hermensa said:
Conspiracy theory - the VIX calls for this month end tomorrow (trading ends today) so we may hold on to a flat or small green day today and then get the OPEX dump tomorrow after MMs have taken all of retail's premium.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Bitcoin down 10%. MARA down 40%. Makes sense
You could argue that profit margin for miners moves at a larger percentage compared to movement in their product. Also if people saw BTC as going to the moon they may have overvalued miners, and once a downtrend in BTC starts - even a small one - people rush out of those miners?
Not great arguments, but I'm trying to make sense of it as well. It's not like the MARA % increase was 4x the BTC increase through this last run up.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm just looking at max pain and the "bicycle" chart where we touch the 50-almost every month on OPEX week. The 50-day for SPX is roughly $4,530. I think we get below 4650 and 4600 this week.
MARA hurt more by the SEC investigation announcement, IMO.
Look at RIOT for comparison, it didn't have the tank so far this week of MARA
Look at RIOT for comparison, it didn't have the tank so far this week of MARA
Wasn't there also an offering on MARA?
Glad I had a trailing stop. Just need to keep my eyes on it for a re-entry.
Glad I had a trailing stop. Just need to keep my eyes on it for a re-entry.
funny thing is, it seems like even if there was a violation.....it wouldn't be that big a deal? I dunno.
yes
RIVN options come online today.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Does Elon have another couple million shares to sell this morning?
Yes, about 10M more to sell
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
With PROG gap up, I'm hoping for a few minutes of continuation then I'm selling $5.50 Dec calls on all but 100 shares.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,972
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tomas Hermensa said:
Conspiracy theory - the VIX calls for this month end tomorrow (trading ends today) so we may hold on to a flat or small green day today and then get the OPEX dump tomorrow after MMs have taken all of retail's premium.
Damn your black heart.
Should've kept those QS puts. Would be three baggers right now.