H-town ag said:

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PROG trying to squeeze here.

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PROG presenting a textbook bull flag. Should rip any day now.

FJ43 said:

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Lets hope we play this aggressive. From Premium

Is this WWE or high school football…? pic.twitter.com/ZlxABcGLcm

— On3 Recruits (@On3Recruits) October 15, 2021

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Reminds me of our special teams coach in HS that would pay us $5 if we could manage to not just pancake but had to also surf on the poor sucker haha
Also i cant stop watching this haha

PROG can rip now. Just bought back my covered calls on it at a slightly higher price than I intended. Didn't want to risk it.

Philip J Fry said:

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confucius_ag said:

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Taking some serious soul searching to hang on to WWR

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Have 10K shares in my 401K account, but I decided to let go of it in my swing trade account. I'll keep my eye on it for signs of reversal, but it's costing me other opportunities by holding it. Same for CLOV.

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Exactly my feelings. Seems like better investments out there in the short term. No FOMO in this one. I think you will have plenty of time if/when there is a reversal.

I don't. I think we hear a lot about supply chain issues and inflation the rest of this earnings season. I think we fill those gaps before we hit 4500 and I think we trade 4100 before 4600.

NRD09 said:

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I bought a crwd 272.5 for next week, feels like someone is trying to keep it down through today's expiration after this week's partnership news and subsequent rip

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Well that was a good entry. Got 1 at 5.45 and averaged down and snagged another at 5.25. 1k on weeklies is a big gamble for me, but up 20% already

1M share buy on sofi...

tlepoC said:

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PROG can rip now. Just bought back my covered calls on it at a slightly higher price than I intended. Didn't want to risk it.

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infinity ag said:

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Now the "analysts" are pumping up the market saying the worst is over

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LOL, their buddies are probably planning to rug pull next week.

Such a trash stock, but this turd has clearly broken out of it's channel. (I realize it's because of BTC)

$MGTI

I'm thinking about buying some $DRIP

All of you graphite junkies that want some positive hits just look over to our northern Canuk bretheren and see $NMG
Dropped hard on an announced offering but consolidated for about 3 months and now picking up on some volume
trying to close over the 200 EMA today with the rest of the EMAs trying to get on the right side of things

They're working pretty hard to keep sofi under 19.5 today... more weeklies may be in order

Triple_Bagger said:

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$EQT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-natural-gas-producer-eqt-162117083.html

I can't remember who was following this stock with me, but I exited today after reading this. They hedged 80% of their natural gas sales over the summer and are now trying to unwind those hedges at these much higher prices. Bloomberg estimates they will miss out on $5B in revenue next year due to their hedges (their market cap is $7.8B)


"EQT Corp. is unwinding natural gas hedges that its top executive said were "obviously" a bad idea....Obviously, we were wrong," Rice said.

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If they're taking a hedge loss in futures, there's an offsetting gain in cash in there somewhere - that's why you hedge and lock in a margin. I don't know what this company's hedging program looks like, but it's not a hedge if they're declaring a loss without citing he offset in cash position - that's a speculation move. Seen this before and it usually leads back to someone speculating and not unwinding the futures at the same time cash is being lifted. Management doesn't want to declare their incompetence publicly and the public (journalist) is not skilled enough to ask about the offsetting cash side,....so, they call it a "bad idea" and laugh it off. If they're a producer, they're always in a long position. Pretty basic stuff. Bottomline, they speculated.

I bought some $DRIP and $CEI.

I think the lack of dips is not a good sign for this rally continuing.

Thanks for the response Farmer.

I don't think they're citing a loss, it's more that they're missing out on potential revenue. They locked in the sale price of their natural gas at $3 per unit and it's now trading at $6 per unit. They're still profitable at $3 per unit, but missing out on the additional profit (estimated $5B).

So they can unwind now and gain exposure to future increases in natural gas prices, but they missed the run from $3 to $6. They're having to pay that difference to unwind the hedge. Now if natural gas prices drop they will have a loss on the books.

lol

/ES and /NQ are both at +1. I was surprised today was a green day with no rejection at the 61.8% fib level from the 4549 high on /ES. We are probably around a 70% retrace point.

The weekly closed above the 8 EMA after touching the 21 intra-week.

Gut tells me selling ain't over yet.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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/ES and /NQ are both at +1. I was surprised today was a green day with no rejection at the 61.8% fib level from the 4549 high on /ES. We are probably around a 70% retrace point.

The weekly closed above the 8 EMA after touching the 21 intra-week.

Gut tells me selling ain't over yet.

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Bought Nov VIX calls given today's volatility crush. Just a trade but seemed like a safe bet.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Thanks for the response Farmer.

I don't think they're citing a loss, it's more that they're missing out on potential revenue. They locked in the sale price of their natural gas at $3 per unit and it's now trading at $6 per unit. They're still profitable at $3 per unit, but missing out on the additional profit (estimated $5B).

So they can unwind now and gain exposure to future increases in natural gas prices, but they missed the run from $3 to $6. They're having to pay that difference to unwind the hedge. Now if natural gas prices drop they will have a loss on the books.

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-They sold physical at $3.
-They would have purchased Futures (Long Futures) to offset the physical sale (Short Physical).
-In this scenario, the company is flat priced short with Futures risk. (Futures risk to the down side in this case)
-The Futures were obviously lower at the time of the physical sale.
-Going forward in time the Futures rose in price. The company had a Futures gain that was a direct result of their established "hedge".
- Obviously, the cash/physical price at $3 at the time of the sale was likely a price below today's market; however, it does not matter as the company has a Futures long that is appreciating with the market.
-When hedging commodities it's not a perfect strategy to secure the "locked-in" margin with a hedge using Futures, because Futures trading to establish, or remove, a hedge, may not be executed to the price levels wanted, so there is "slippage". However, $5 billion is not "slippage", there was a speculation taking place and I'll place a bet that the company "legged-into" the hedge or "legged-out" of the hedge without regard to the contract physical delivery period. Otherwise, the other alternatives are something is way wrong in their hedge room if the company leadership is publicly stating this was a "hedge" - their words, not mine.

The scenario, Flat-Price Short/Long Futures, has a Futures risk to the down side, not the up side. It would have been impossible to miss the run from $3 to $6.

The real question is, why would this company be Short Futures against a Physical cash sale (short)? That is not an orthodox hedge, it's a double short. That's a "Texas Hedge" to the short side. {The company would have to be Short Futures to miss the Nat Gas Futures price run up because their Physical was already priced. Again, their words.}

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I bought some $DRIP and $CEI.

I think the lack of dips is not a good sign for this rally continuing.

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Heh I did the CEI play too - new option season coming off an uptick into expiration. Maybe a play coming up.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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Thanks for the response Farmer.

I don't think they're citing a loss, it's more that they're missing out on potential revenue. They locked in the sale price of their natural gas at $3 per unit and it's now trading at $6 per unit. They're still profitable at $3 per unit, but missing out on the additional profit (estimated $5B).

So they can unwind now and gain exposure to future increases in natural gas prices, but they missed the run from $3 to $6. They're having to pay that difference to unwind the hedge. Now if natural gas prices drop they will have a loss on the books.

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-They sold physical at $3.
-They would have purchased Futures (Long Futures) to offset the physical sale (Short Physical).
-In this scenario, the company is flat priced short with Futures risk. (Futures risk to the down side in this case)
-The Futures were obviously lower at the time of the physical sale.
-Going forward in time the Futures rose in price. The company had a Futures gain that was a direct result of their established "hedge".
- Obviously, the cash/physical price at $3 at the time of the sale was likely a price below today's market; however, it does not matter as the company has a Futures long that is appreciating with the market.
-When hedging commodities it's not a perfect strategy to secure the "locked-in" margin with a hedge using Futures, because Futures trading to establish, or remove, a hedge, may not be executed to the price levels wanted, so there is "slippage". However, $5 billion is not "slippage", there was a speculation taking place and I'll place a bet that the company "legged-into" the hedge or "legged-out" of the hedge without regard to the contract physical delivery period. Otherwise, the other alternatives are something is way wrong in their hedge room if the company leadership is publicly stating this was a "hedge" - their words, not mine.

The scenario, Flat-Price Short/Long Futures, has a Futures risk to the down side, not the up side. It would have been impossible to miss the run from $3 to $6.

The real question is, why would this company be Short Futures against a Physical cash sale (short)? That is not an orthodox hedge, it's a double short. That's a "Texas Hedge" to the short side. {The company would have to be Short Futures to miss the Nat Gas Futures price run up because their Physical was already priced. Again, their words.}

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Sorry, what I wrote above is true in principle.

However, it is incorrect in that the company had no Physical sale to "hedge" against. I interpreted as they had a physical sale on the books.

They just flat out sold Nat Gas Futures against NOTHING but future production.

Theirs was a bonified speculation position.

It is not a hedge of any sort. It's Futures risk all the way.

I had the same problem in the poultry industry. I had broilers and turkeys turning through our production facilities monthly non-stop. I was always short soybean meal and corn to feed these birds, but you couldn't buy soy and corn Futures to hedge against future bird production as the risk is too great - it would have been a speculation. The Nat Gas company tried to price forward in Futures as a "hedge" and got their azz handed to them. It wasn't a hedge, it was a spec.

I apologize for any confusion.

Logging out. Brain needs a break.

Commodity plays for forward going into inflation = BG, MOS, ADM and IBA (probably look at Walmart too)

would love to hit one of these one day, but this would take some giant steel balls...

Whoever bought that $UPST 390/440 call spread 1500x is enjoying their week

— Loggyrhythm - Fear is transitory, greed is forever (@loggyrhythm) October 15, 2021

That is a crazy bet. Especially after the run UPST just had. I think this is a losing play.
600 P/E
78 RSI
Low insider ownership and high insider sells

This stock should pull back unless it's the next TSLA. I don't know much about Upstart but if they need cash, now would be a great time for a secondary offering.

UPST is a great trade if you're in it, but I wouldn't buy right here. It needs to dip or consolidate.

https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT572866&eid=MKT582026&assetId=AST200444&page=2

Is this FUD or legit? This guy paints an ominous picture. Most of what he says makes sense, but it is literally so bleak it's hard to imagine as real.

Curious for others' insights?