BaylorSpineGuy said:
To stir up more fear and make Farmer even more bullish, I saw someone recently who works at Mouser. It's the one of, if not, the largest electronic electronic distributor in the world mostly semiconductors and chips, etc.
This person said without a doubt this is always the busiest time of year, and she says they have almost no work to do. I continue to be amazed at how many busy companies seemingly have no business to do.
Thanks for posting this info. I agree with it.
I think from a seasonality standpoint,...
*...market continues in a bullish trend to the end of year and Jan & some Feb'22
*...earnings reports this month will be positive
*...forward guidance this month should be cautious to negative (aligns with your semiconductor friend)
*...I don't think we get real confirmation on poor results until earnings reports in Jan and forward guidance by then will be negative
*...any 2021 tapering at $10 to $15 billion a month on the mortgage backed side will be moot and typical year end bullish seasonality should throw shade on tapering for a while
So what am I doing now?
-Holding my long term share holds and watching this rally moving forward
-For those shares I am, and will be, selling March'22 and/or April'22 Calls against them
-I'd like my Call sell premium to produce enough for an extra quarterly dividend, minimum
-I've already established this position on my T shares before T sank (lucky me). I missed a window on BTI (a longer story) but the U.S.-FDA is helping me out with my BTI over the last couple days.
-I figure by the time we reach calendar Feb/Mar/Apr the market will be in decline and I'll re-establish the longer dated Calls once again after expiration
-My long term holding share position picks I had already established in preparation for rising interest rates, inflation and tapering. These transition share picks
should blossom in chaotic economic times.
As for my trading shares, I don't know just yet what I'll do. I'll hold shares like WWR, TTD, SAVA, but other stuff may go to cash.
Cash, I was long a mountain of cash well before June looking for a market setback. I stayed with this position until the end of Sep. I'm somewhere between 10 to 15% cash now, down from 55%.
Ultimately, I am moving to tax exempt - everything. The remaining cash outside of sheltered accounts will go into tax exempt investments. I should be tax free by age 69 to 70. I'm a weird bird in the sense that I'm doing this for my legacy generation(s). Most of my friends and acquaintances say "Die broke". If I'm a wealthy guy laying in the cemetery, so be it. I think it's going to be a lot tougher for my heirs and I'll help as much as I can while I am still breathing. I'll leave them a plan thereafter and if any of it holds true into the future, well great. If not, then I just wasn't smart enough to out guess tax law and congress. That will be okay too.