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Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
You're nuts.


Mountain house is gross. All kinds of canned foods, rice, beans, zatarains, etc etc accomplish the same goal way cheaper and tastier
Saltyag15
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NRD09 said:

You're nuts.


Mountain house is gross.
You bite your tongue!
Triple_Bagger
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FJ43 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

So is this supply chain stuff real or is it media hyped BS? I saw Apple is having trouble getting chips, but curious on bare necessities.

You all may think I'm nuts, but I have a years worth of mountain house on hand for a reason.
Not sure of the real cause but I think it's real. I don't think this is all Covid related. Most production is running full steam and has been for quite some time.


Was in a Super Walmart over the weekend and was baffled by how empty so many shelves and products were.
I think it's very real. Apple prides itself on having the best supply chain management. I have a few friends who work there and said the supply chain issues would never effect them when I mentioned it earlier this year (inserts foot in mouth).

Walmart is another company who touts strong supply chain management. With these 2 giants having issues, imagine what smaller, less equipped companies are dealing with.

***I've been bearish since August, so I'm biased***
FJ43
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NRD09 said:

You're nuts.


Mountain house is gross. All kinds of canned foods, rice, beans, zatarains, etc etc accomplish the same goal way cheaper and tastier
Dude...Mountain House Beef Stroganoff is awesome. I've had so much of that on the sides of remote mountains i can't even count the packages.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Charismatic Megafauna
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Thanks, i bought a pretty good pile of the nov 5c for .19-.2 today, i kept seeing the last price at .15 though so i guess someone with more patience than me sat on the bid and snagged a bunch at .15
agdaddy04
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Not sure why I haven't been using the same supply chain logic from our business to the stock market. I've been way too bullish in the market
Charismatic Megafauna
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I'm sure it's gotten better. I got away from backpacking food when i was doing a lot of backpacking in the mid 90s and it was pretty terrible. Moved to regular old mac & cheese (dump into a ziploc and ditch the box) and stuff like that. Lipton noodles and sauce, rice & sauce, etc. When they started packaging tuna in packets my mountain food game got real strong!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Fisher transform smooths out prices into a normal distribution to better signal reversals. It's not 100% but I use it on mobile.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

So is this supply chain stuff real or is it media hyped BS? I saw Apple is having trouble getting chips, but curious on bare necessities.

You all may think I'm nuts, but I have a years worth of mountain house on hand for a reason.
It's definitely real and people should be freezing meat for the holidays.
Brewmaster
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

So is this supply chain stuff real or is it media hyped BS? I saw Apple is having trouble getting chips, but curious on bare necessities.

You all may think I'm nuts, but I have a years worth of mountain house on hand for a reason.
yeah, what everyone else is saying. Ships are stuck offshore and not unloading or unloading at a glacial pace. Anything not made or sourced in the U.S. could disappear for a while.

NRD09 and me must be brothers... count me out on the beef strog. My dad made that crap growing up countless times. We're loaded up on black beans and I'll probably go hunting tomorrow for other stuff.
deadbq03
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As a parent of elementary aged kids, my supply chain metric is Lunchables. Those bad boys were off the shelves in both HEB and United for a solid month after school started. They've been back consistently for a couple weeks now so I'm gonna believe things are getting better and go put my head in the sand while the world burns.
BaylorSpineGuy
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I'm on my phone, sorry.

4040 area looks sexy.





If you could go ahead and make that happen before my puts expire next month, I'd really appreciate that. 2550 would be better for my puts. I'd invite you all to my place for a cookout if this thing goes to 2500. I think there is a gap around 3350 or so too. Never a bad time to fill that….
Sully Dog
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There was another thread where a costco manager said they aren't sure they will have enough turkey's for thanksgiving. I think that will be the tipping point for a lot of Americans
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
FTAG 2000
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This'll sound a little first world problems but

When Costco stops rationing TP, paper towels, and bottled water
I can find prime brisket for less than $5/pound anywhere in DFW
The pool supply companies stop rationing chlorine and other pool chemicals
The distilleries stop rationing distribution due to a lack of glass bottles

Then I'll know we're healthy on supply chain again.
FTAG 2000
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Sully Dog said:

There was another thread where a costco manager said they aren't sure they will have enough turkey's for thanksgiving. I think that will be the tipping point for a lot of Americans
What thread was that? Can you link?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Should be enough turkeys. Most whole birds go to freezers during the year as Thanksgiving is the only super demand day for turkeys. Once whole bird space is filled, breasts are next and then you go to MDM Mechanically Deboned Meat and those are tote sized containers full of a kind of a liquified meat. Maybe some freezer space will empty out this year. Truck transportation getting birds to grocery stores might be the larger issue...and the larger issue for lots of other products too.

You got a pool or a water softener? Get your pool & softener salt and chlorine products - now/tomorrow - for next year. There's a salt operation that exports salt to the U.S. That plant will be down for 2 months. Some context, the largest mine/plant in the U.S. cannot produce in one year what this export producer churns out in one month...again they'll be down for 2 months. The supply side in the U.S. was already tight before the info got out on the exporter shutting down. Everyone is seeking a replacement supply and it's not there. And, it takes sodium to make chlorine products.

My former Venezuelan work colleagues on work visits to the U.S. would always buy extra suit cases to take back toilet paper, tooth paste, bags of pasta and Mrs Dash spices. I was always curious what they would take back to their country that had little basics - a mental note for me. So, naturally I keep extra tp, tooth paste and spices and I think I'll add deodorant to the mix. Toward the end of my career(2016), the Venezuela colleagues had to pack an "extra" suit case "bribe" for the Venezuela airport security personnel who were checking the bags when the colleagues returned home. The suitcase mixed with tp, toothpaste, spice and pasta was the bribe. Security always knew which bag to keep, the colleagues never asked about the "missing" bag and they never got hassled at security stations or had missing items coming back into country. Funny how that works.

I think we have another red day tomorrow. "I think" Thursday and Friday will be green. Earnings season should start up next week and I believe reports will be positive, but guidance may be negative. I'm still bullish to the end of the year.



ProgN
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Should be enough turkeys. Most whole birds go to freezers during the year as Thanksgiving is the only super demand day for turkeys. Once whole bird space is filled, breasts are next and then you go to MDM Mechanically Deboned Meat and those are tote sized containers full of a kind of a liquified meat. Maybe some freezer space will empty out this year. Truck transportation getting birds to grocery stores might be the larger issue...and the larger issue for lots of other products too.

You got a pool or a water softener. Get your pool & softener salt and chlorine products - now/tomorrow - for next year. There's a salt operation that exports salt to the U.S. That plant will be down for 2 months. Some context, the largest mine/plant in the U.S. cannot produce in one year what this export producer churns out in one month...again they'll be down for 2 months. The supply side in the U.S. was already tight before the info got out on the exporter shutting down. Everyone is seeking a replacement supply and it's not there. And, it takes sodium to make chlorine products.

My former Venezuelan work colleagues on work visits to the U.S. would always buy extra suit cases to take back toilet paper, tooth paste, bags of pasta and Mrs Dash spices. I was always curious what they would take back to their country that had little basics - a mental note for me. So, naturally I keep extra tp, tooth paste and spices and I think I'll add deodorant to the mix. Toward the end of my career(2016), the Venezuela colleagues had to pack an "extra" suit case "bribe" for the Venezuela airport security personnel who were checking the bags when the colleagues returned home. The suitcase mixed with tp, toothpaste, spice and pasta was the bribe. Security always knew which bag to keep, the colleagues never asked about the "missing" bag and they never got hassled at security stations or had missing items coming back into country. Funny how that works.

I think we have another red day tomorrow. "I think" Thursday and Friday will be green. Earnings season should start up next week and I believe reports will be positive, but guidance may be negative. I'm still bullish to the end of the year.




Personally, I believe if we would just start taking up a lot of these progressive/socialists in Pinochet type helicopter rides, then a lot of these supply chain issues would begin to resolve themselves. This is all by design.
CopperBadger
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I hate to be "that guy", but that's what we are kind of here for. How do we make money off the upcoming supply chain issues? Agricultural stocks and ETFs, Dow transports, transportation companies? Should we be looking to buy actual stocks or 2022 or 2023 leaps?

Who's bottom line gets killed in a supply chain disruption. Puts or short sells on retailers like Costco and Wal-Mart? Transportation will be in demand, but do they get killed by rising gas prices and labor shortages, and have a trouble turning a profit?

Sorry for the long stream of consciousness ramble, I am processing this in real time, and hoping to promote discussion.
McInnis 03
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Remember, just when you start to hear things on overload is when they are about played out....

Recently, taper, debt ceiling, Evergrande, now shortages.....
ProgN
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I'm accumulating CVNA because I love the company and management team but I also believe they'll have very good earnings the next 2 qtrs because there isn't any new inventory on car lots but consumers will still want to upgrade into a newer model vehicle.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Don't have a complete answer for you, but energy (Chevron/Exxon) and consumable products(P&G, Colgate Palmolive) and vices (booze & cigarette stocks) were good investments in high inflation....yeah I'm old enough to discuss high inflationary periods I lived through. Hard times can influence people to eat, drink and smoke. More recently, how many people from the 2008 financial crisis do you know that took up smoking again?

There are probably better plays then what I'll write below, but I want a particular kind of buy & hold portfolio for the tapering and rising interest rate environment we will enter. So, it'll be names with attractive dividend payouts with some consistency. Will not be my entire portfolio, but a healthy one.

Right now, I'm looking at -

HNDL
T
CVX
XOM
KMI
ABBV
TFSL
LADR
JEPI
BTI

If you had a million and put $100k in each of the above issues today your monthly dividend average is ~$5,300 per month. Those are easy numbers to start with and convert to whatever the initial investment would equal for anyone else looking to do the same. Please note some of these investments pay monthly and others pay quarterly. I own a few of these now. The others will be bought soon (a dip tomorrow would be nice), only because I'm bullish to year end. I'll eventually sell Calls against the shares where Options are available. My plan is to maintain, milk the dividend and squeeze out another dividend with a Call a few months out on the calendar with investments I think to be steady in uneasy times..

Triple_Bagger
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Tough to say which individual stocks will get hurt the most by supply chain issues.

I'm long commodities, energy, and of course SAVA.

I'm short everything else. I've been having decent success shorting the S&P and Nasdaq as day trades. I wait until the opening range is established and go short if the ORL is lost. I haven't been holding overnight because the opening action is tough to predict. I hold December puts on both of these indexes, which I've bought and sold a few times.

Some of the more experienced traders here might be able to tell you specific stocks or industries to short, but that's outside of my wheelhouse (I have 0.75 years of experience).
ProgN
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Nvm, you have it
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Are we buying AAPL at $138 or $135?
gig em 02
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McInnis 03 said:

Remember, just when you start to hear things on overload is when they are about played out....

Recently, taper, debt ceiling, Evergrande, now shortages.....


You need to get out with the commoners to utilize this metric. The janitor isn't talking about supply chain issues, evergrande, or tapering.
Red Rover
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Triple_Bagger said:

Tough to say which individual stocks will get hurt the most by supply chain issues.

I'm long commodities, energy, and of course SAVA.

I'm short everything else. I've been having decent success shorting the S&P and Nasdaq as day trades. I wait until the opening range is established and go short if the ORL is lost. I haven't been holding overnight because the opening action is tough to predict. I hold December puts on both of these indexes, which I've bought and sold a few times.

Some of the more experienced traders here might be able to tell you specific stocks or industries to short, but that's outside of my wheelhouse (I have 0.75 years of experience).


It's back to basics. Materials, bio, and energy seem like good candidates for rotation if supply chain issues choke the end consumer companies.

And for lunchables we bought a few bento box lunch containers and have been making our own "lunchables" for years now. The trick is when you start them off make sure to put extra cookies or candy or something in there at first to get buy-in. You can ween them off those later.
BaylorSpineGuy
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/a-record-4point3-million-workers-quit-their-jobs-in-august-led-by-food-and-retail-industries.html

No idea how to benefit financially from this knowledge,
But this shows mass exodus from the work force 2 months ago. Their explanation was about continuing to work during a pandemic, etc., but these numbers from August are interesting. What we were all hearing at that time was "summer of re-opening" and getting back to work, etc. this reality is a far cry from that narrative.

I believe the true narrative is entirely different. People will not work at the current wage. Current salaries and fixed wages are barely covering now. Food prices, cost of labor, cost of goods, gasoline, etc., are now skyrocketing. This is a function of a devalued and ineffective dollar.

I ate at Uncle Julio's in Ft Worth Sat night. Historically a super busy hot spot at 8 pm on a Saturday (especially with TCU out of town). That restaurant never even got full. Maybe half to three quarters full. It was ominous. I think we are only starting to see the misery.

One play to consider if this continues would be to short Darden (DRI) or other big food chains. I'm always surprised to see that company's stock going up. But that restaurant chain has modified or removed some of the food offerings they historically had, so that's a consideration.
BaylorSpineGuy
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HCA had dipped to 239 but it ripped AH tonight and is up nearly 20 points. I don't see any news on Apple stock feed. Interesting but my guess is a quarterly report or something.
Red Rover
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

One play to consider if this continues would be to short Darden (DRI) or other big food chains. I'm always surprised to see that company's stock going up. But that restaurant chain has modified or removed some of the food offerings they historically had, so that's a consideration.

Yes DRI and EAT are two big targets. Take a look at what got hit the hardest initially during covid and combine that with industries or companies that seem most vulnerable to supply chain issues. Those may be good candidates.
Brewmaster
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Are we buying AAPL at $138 or $135?
135 per OA. He's not touching it til then. I think it gets there soon.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
Red Rover said:

Triple_Bagger said:

Tough to say which individual stocks will get hurt the most by supply chain issues.

I'm long commodities, energy, and of course SAVA.

I'm short everything else. I've been having decent success shorting the S&P and Nasdaq as day trades. I wait until the opening range is established and go short if the ORL is lost. I haven't been holding overnight because the opening action is tough to predict. I hold December puts on both of these indexes, which I've bought and sold a few times.

Some of the more experienced traders here might be able to tell you specific stocks or industries to short, but that's outside of my wheelhouse (I have 0.75 years of experience).


It's back to basics. Materials, bio, and energy seem like good candidates for rotation if supply chain issues choke the end consumer companies.

And for lunchables we bought a few bento box lunch containers and have been making our own "lunchables" for years now. The trick is when you start them off make sure to put extra cookies or candy or something in there at first to get buy-in. You can ween them off those later.


Banks are also a good candidate. Have to think BRKB with there huge cash generation.
FJ43
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Mornun.....

Mixed markets US, EU & Asia
OpEx week so tread carefully...may be sideways chop until Friday.
ES sitting on the 100EMA
NQ below the 100EMA



For me..... being patient, managing shares and premium eating.

With my schedule and the markets posture not making many trades.

Have no idea direction but sure 'feels' like Gladiator at the moment.....



Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Got it!
Thanks!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Good morning Boss!
FJ43
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Good morning Boss!
Morning! Interesting times. Loved your posts and your watch list above. Should I decide to engage on this aerospace defense deal I won't be able to be quite as active on a intraday/daily basis, so will be looking to add some plays like you listed.

Have that M&A itch....again......

Probably losing my sanity.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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