Also anybody know why there's a spy Thursday expiration this week? Is there always one last day of month?
Last day of month and quarter.NRD09 said:
Also anybody know why there's a spy Thursday expiration this week? Is there always one last day of month?
NRD09 said:jwhitlock3 said:
You're planning to sell calls this early? I figured this had a run coming?
Base hits...
Guessing here but maybe quarter end? I don't remember seeing one for every month endNRD09 said:
Also anybody know why there's a spy Thursday expiration this week? Is there always one last day of month?
$30,000 Millionaire said:
sold $RGS 7.5C for $0.35 Oct 15.
You can't make this stuff up. LOL
Watch VIX. Need it back below 20 to feel good about bullish direction, otherwise have to assume this is a fake out.TMOOSE said:
You all think this is a little fake out before we go lower on SPY?
I'll sell for more than 2X in under 2 weeks.jwhitlock3 said:
You're planning to sell calls this early? I figured this had a run coming?
wouldn't surprise me. We never retouched 430ish. I think technically we flashed to 429. I would've preferred we went ahead and did that yesterday, this is tricky tape.TMOOSE said:
You all think this is a little fake out before we go lower on SPY?
I love some good farm talk. My dad is finishing the cotton harvest this week. One of the best years he has ever had across the board. On the flipside, my in-laws own a feed mill. They have been paying the highest prices they have every paid for milo. The new crop coming in at least brought the price down for them.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Okay when ProgN takes notice to a 10 year high in cotton - I take notice.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
One last item,....
Ag commodities (my career) we are in what the industry calls "gut-slot harvest" as producers deliver grains (beans a bit later in the season) to the elevators. Elevator bids to producers should be at their lowest right now. It's supply versus demand. Well, throughout the Midwest, yesterday was some record bidding taking place at elevators. Happened last year too. This is 180 degrees different than what normally should happen. Again, cash bids should be at there lowest point right now and they aren't, hitting some highs of the year. The commodity futures markets are not reflecting what is taking place in the cash markets. It's like the futures markets don't care and/or are suppressed.
At some point, boutique brewery's and pasta makers to major commercial soybean processing plants and grain elevators etc. will be bidding up for ag goods and talking about it in the press. The futures market will need to suddenly wake up. Will New York money go to Chicago? I don't know. Fundamentals say commodities should scream...pretty soon. If you think you're seeing food inflation now, I'd project it will be much worse over the next 12 months. Farmer's household food expenditures are up 5.79% (Jan to present versus last year)...probably related to JPOWELL's transitory inflation (sarcasm). Durum wheat (pasta wheat) availability along with most other quality milling bread wheats are tough to source. Lentils and chick peas and other staples experiencing difficulty too. If you're a pasta eater, buying a couple extra bags or boxes wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm not saying tank-up, but having a bit more pantry inventory then normal is not a bad thing. When a Kraft Mac & Cheese box triples or quadruples in price, there will be some angry folks.
My favorite beef cut is the Tomahawk steak, generally 3 lbs, in July the typical price was $38 today it's $52 in my marketplace. I know, I know, it's a first-world problem, but steak to hamburger is on an incline. Pork and chicken are reasonable, red meat is on the upward trend and been so for a while.
USDA pulled a stunt last week. I'll spare the long, short of the matter, they up'ed the supply side on corn in a problem year. USDA numbers aren't accurate, hell they are still correcting last years numbers. If they are trying to suppress prices to flatten inflation it doesn't work. The cash market will determine that point and right now it says commodities are tight, regardless what the futures markets reflect.
This is probably my only case to see a setback in the stock market before year end should money leave New York and head to Chicago...this or a financial disaster in China.
Way earlier this year the thread had discussion on Bunge (BG), Mosaic (MOS) and others. I had a buddy that was long these 2 and was looking to increase his long come JAS'21. Well,....I think the time has come.
Fertilizer prices are going higher and they already took a major jump in the last 3 months. Last week I bought all my lawn needs for next year (Yeah I do my own lawn. Being retired I have to make those degrees continue to be useful!) My cousin who farms the family estate has us locked-in price-wise for the coming year and suppliers told him there were no guarantees on actual delivery,...gotta love that! And, since I posted the above information (9/16), commodity prices are starting to heat up, finally.
MOS should rally based on current inputs and information in the link below.
BG should rally as financially strapped producers shift acres from corn to soybeans. Beans are a nitrogen fixating plant and can function with lower levels of commercial fertilizer keeping input costs down, but lots of beans available at harvest next year can suppress bean prices. May not net the maximum profit per acre, but keeps you in the farming game another year. So, what's the lesser of 2 evils, buy expensive fert and plant corn or reduce your fert bill and plant beans (?). Corn prices will move higher and likely bean prices tag along but not leading the way as corn will. BG can hedge themselves into a profit. Greg Heckman, BG CEO, and I were trading adversaries as young pups - he knows what he is doing. I won more trades then he did, but hey, he's CEO...and I'm retired, so there's that! Solid leadership with Greg.
https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/fertilizer-prices-soar-near-2008-highs-supply-shocks-concerns-sprout
Anyway, BG and MOS look like solid adds to a portfolio (shares or options) based on fundamentals in the marketplace and the future 12 month outlook.
PS: Family Estate - I want to start growing houses. (JPOWELL I'm talking to you, keep interest rates low, please) Developer says the Home Place farm looks like bingo. We'll see - fingers-crossed. Had enough of corn, milo, wheat and cotton and riding the commodity price waves from feast to famine.
TMOOSE said:
You all think this is a little fake out before we go lower on SPY?
tam2002 said:
Just averaged down on WWR for the 5,398th time
Funny how that works, huh?McInnis 03 said:
Now NQ at the ETH low
That ETH low is so often a nice opportunity to switch the tune. pic.twitter.com/Sq1rRYL4HV
— Charles F (@charlesf11) September 29, 2021
$700 price target in two yearsTexasAg2017 said:
$SAVA
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457665-cassava-sciences-simuliflam-could-be-approved
It's got a support level down at $275ish.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I keep thinking we've reached the bottom for ROKU, but it just keeps falling.
That said, I'm convinced in can't possibly have much further to go. $280 at worst, right?
I've nearly doubled my position and averaged down to 318 though, so I feel good about it.
5 min candle below 305.52 and I think you get your wish.Ragoo said:
Come on roku flash to $300
if it trades for half that in 2 years, I will shave a C into the back of my head for Cassava! and the money I will have made will offset any public embarassments, lol.AgCPA95 said:$700 price target in two yearsTexasAg2017 said:
$SAVA
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457665-cassava-sciences-simuliflam-could-be-approved