We always meet at the ninth green at 9 o'clock. And BaylorSpineGuy.....dress nice....

One more day of summer left for me. Outdoors projects again tomorrow. Not near a screen.

I thought today would be greenish, but red prevailed. Are we back to a market reacting normally to bad news?

I don't know a lot about OMF as I just entered this stock 30 or 60 days ago on a dividend play. I noticed the November Options look pricey versus the underlying. Might be a play here for someone. I own the shares and covered calls against them. Options prices have appreciated a lot since I sold the calls a few days back and the shares have remained basically unchanged (nominal range) while the Options showing strength.

Anybody got a prediction on how low AMZN will go in next 5 days?

BTI shares should be higher tomorrow and likely at its nearest peak prior to EX-DIV on 10/1. Early morning tomorrow I'll likely enter orders to sell Calls against my shares. Looking at Nov 19 $40 Calls trying to get something more than 10 cents. For me the Nov Calls are sort of like no-mans-land. It's an in-between period of Div pay out and a month before the next EX-DIV date and that translates to low chance period of losing your shares. If I lose them, so be it. I'll just rebuy. Just don't need the additional exercise hassle to replace. ... Yeah, I'm lazy.


ETA: BTI shares should be higher tomorrow and likely at its nearest peak prior to EX-DIV on 10/1. = I'm thinking close to $37.50 per share.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

---

My neighbor and mentor growing up was neurosurgeon. He and my dad are best friends. My dad is retired from a career in IT.

But when I was in med school in Houston, my mentor was a Peds Neurosurgeon. Just so happened to be an Aggie. One of the best dudes I've ever known. Total bad-A. Would do anything for the guy.

Am curious….do all the folks active on this board meet at tailgates or socialize at your football games?

---

Thanks!

My son has been neuro sciences focused for some years. Basically, as the years progressed his neuro interest has broadened and deepened. He graduates high school this year and his college choices have some relation to those schools with a medical system associated or one with a relationship with a specific university. I'm not exactly sure where he'll decide to go; regardless, I believe he's headed to the neuro route eventually. I appreciate your answer and I know everyone is different. It made me curious how you arrived at what you did. I'm not sure what stemmed my son's interest in this field outside of working in an area with something that is not entirely understood at this point - neuro science. I'm pretty sure he's moving that direction career-wise.

Don't know if this group of folks tailgate or socialize, but I'd like to meet y'all sometime. I'll be back in TX in early Nov but I'm booked on business. Then probably back in June '22.

Thanks again!

Mornun!

US = Green
EU = Green
Asia = Red



VIX is down slightly but we need back below 20 to do some good. May sell those puts picked up at close and take the 30-40% then just buy back.

IMO careful for dead cat bounces today....we are in month & quarter end here so I would expect some shenanigans. If weekly plays may be best using next Friday on calls.

No two ways about it ES & NQ in precarious corrective phases here.

But.....



Trade wisely!

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

---

One more day of summer left for me. Outdoors projects again tomorrow. Not near a screen.

I thought today would be greenish, but red prevailed. Are we back to a market reacting normally to bad news?

I don't know a lot about OMF as I just entered this stock 30 or 60 days ago on a dividend play. I noticed the November Options look pricey versus the underlying. Might be a play here for someone. I own the shares and covered calls against them. Options prices have appreciated a lot since I sold the calls a few days back and the shares have remained basically unchanged (nominal range) while the Options showing strength.

Anybody got a prediction on how low AMZN will go in next 5 days?

BTI shares should be higher tomorrow and likely at its nearest peak prior to EX-DIV on 10/1. Early morning tomorrow I'll likely enter orders to sell Calls against my shares. Looking at Nov 19 $40 Calls trying to get something more than 10 cents. For me the Nov Calls are sort of like no-mans-land. It's an in-between period of Div pay out and a month before the next EX-DIV date and that translates to low chance period of losing your shares. If I lose them, so be it. I'll just rebuy. Just don't need the additional exercise hassle to replace. ... Yeah, I'm lazy.


ETA: BTI shares should be higher tomorrow and likely at its nearest peak prior to EX-DIV on 10/1. = I'm thinking close to $37.50 per share.

---

Mornun!

I took a look at AMZN and man tough spot here.

• The 'yellow' colored channel is a range its had a hard time getting and staying above.
• Added volume shelf for visual reference.
• Touched 200EMA yesterday and back into the low end of that channel which is also low end of major shelf.
• Below 3185ish range IMO and whoops.....

Maybe we see what happens at the trend line but won't surprise me to touch that with rate increases....

Earnings coming up on 28th I think so maybe it holds this range until then.

RGS touched $4.80 early premarket.

$4.55 now.....

I think today, and the rest of the week frankly, are pivotal.

The Russell has been in this sideways channel ever since forming its top earlier this year. In EW, the fibs line up that the top was the 3rd wave and we've been in the 4th wave, which is almost always the most turbulent wave.

At the same time, the S&P has kept going up and up and up. We know we've been due a 4th wave for a couple months now. Every time we thought it was starting, it corrected back up. Well, we're definitely in 4 now. What we experienced last week and early Monday was the "b" wave bounce of 4, which can sometimes feel impulsive and make you think the pain is over. But I don't think the pain is over. We still have the c wave which can either be 5 waves down or an ending diagonal.

All that said, it really seems like the Russel got out ahead of the S&P. That's why this year has sucked for small caps. It's been waiting for S&P to catch up. Now that S&P is looking for a bottom and a reversal, Russel looks to have formed an impulsive 5 waves up. I'm not 100% sure, but it would appear the Russel has started what should be a very lucrative and big wave 5 pointing toward 3000 and S&P will follow pointing toward 4900-5100.

We shall see.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

---

One last item,....

Ag commodities (my career) we are in what the industry calls "gut-slot harvest" as producers deliver grains (beans a bit later in the season) to the elevators. Elevator bids to producers should be at their lowest right now. It's supply versus demand. Well, throughout the Midwest, yesterday was some record bidding taking place at elevators. Happened last year too. This is 180 degrees different than what normally should happen. Again, cash bids should be at there lowest point right now and they aren't, hitting some highs of the year. The commodity futures markets are not reflecting what is taking place in the cash markets. It's like the futures markets don't care and/or are suppressed.

At some point, boutique brewery's and pasta makers to major commercial soybean processing plants and grain elevators etc. will be bidding up for ag goods and talking about it in the press. The futures market will need to suddenly wake up. Will New York money go to Chicago? I don't know. Fundamentals say commodities should scream...pretty soon. If you think you're seeing food inflation now, I'd project it will be much worse over the next 12 months. Farmer's household food expenditures are up 5.79% (Jan to present versus last year)...probably related to JPOWELL's transitory inflation (sarcasm). Durum wheat (pasta wheat) availability along with most other quality milling bread wheats are tough to source. Lentils and chick peas and other staples experiencing difficulty too. If you're a pasta eater, buying a couple extra bags or boxes wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm not saying tank-up, but having a bit more pantry inventory then normal is not a bad thing. When a Kraft Mac & Cheese box triples or quadruples in price, there will be some angry folks.

My favorite beef cut is the Tomahawk steak, generally 3 lbs, in July the typical price was $38 today it's $52 in my marketplace. I know, I know, it's a first-world problem, but steak to hamburger is on an incline. Pork and chicken are reasonable, red meat is on the upward trend and been so for a while.

USDA pulled a stunt last week. I'll spare the long, short of the matter, they up'ed the supply side on corn in a problem year. USDA numbers aren't accurate, hell they are still correcting last years numbers. If they are trying to suppress prices to flatten inflation it doesn't work. The cash market will determine that point and right now it says commodities are tight, regardless what the futures markets reflect.

This is probably my only case to see a setback in the stock market before year end should money leave New York and head to Chicago...this or a financial disaster in China.

---

Okay when ProgN takes notice to a 10 year high in cotton - I take notice.

Way earlier this year the thread had discussion on Bunge (BG), Mosaic (MOS) and others. I had a buddy that was long these 2 and was looking to increase his long come JAS'21. Well,....I think the time has come.

Fertilizer prices are going higher and they already took a major jump in the last 3 months. Last week I bought all my lawn needs for next year (Yeah I do my own lawn. Being retired I have to make those degrees continue to be useful!) My cousin who farms the family estate has us locked-in price-wise for the coming year and suppliers told him there were no guarantees on actual delivery,...gotta love that! And, since I posted the above information (9/16), commodity prices are starting to heat up, finally.

MOS should rally based on current inputs and information in the link below.

BG should rally as financially strapped producers shift acres from corn to soybeans. Beans are a nitrogen fixating plant and can function with lower levels of commercial fertilizer keeping input costs down, but lots of beans available at harvest next year can suppress bean prices. May not net the maximum profit per acre, but keeps you in the farming game another year. So, what's the lesser of 2 evils, buy expensive fert and plant corn or reduce your fert bill and plant beans (?). Corn prices will move higher and likely bean prices tag along but not leading the way as corn will. BG can hedge themselves into a profit. Greg Heckman, BG CEO, and I were trading adversaries as young pups - he knows what he is doing. I won more trades then he did, but hey, he's CEO...and I'm retired, so there's that! Solid leadership with Greg.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/fertilizer-prices-soar-near-2008-highs-supply-shocks-concerns-sprout

Anyway, BG and MOS look like solid adds to a portfolio (shares or options) based on fundamentals in the marketplace and the future 12 month outlook.

PS: Family Estate - I want to start growing houses. (JPOWELL I'm talking to you, keep interest rates low, please) Developer says the Home Place farm looks like bingo. We'll see - fingers-crossed. Had enough of corn, milo, wheat and cotton and riding the commodity price waves from feast to famine.

Wednesday Macros....

Mild Reversal Of Yesterday's Losses.... Will They Be Sustained?... Probably Not

We watched the treasury market trade last night in Tokyo... First they attempted to break yesterday's highs of 1.04 5 years, 1.56 10 years and 2.11 long bonds... Got right to those levels and did not go further... Quickly rising rates are not good for risk, especially for the long duration Nasdaq stocks, which we clearly saw yesterday... Now treasuries are back 5 basis from the high yields of last night and yesterday.... Equity futures are higher, but we doubt it will last...Equity corrections yesterday from the September highs were only 4.4% S+P and and a little over 5% for the Nasdaq.... We do not think it is over yet...200 day moving averages for both would put corrections closer to 9.2% S+P and 9.6% Nasdaq, respectively. Those are more likely... But we are still very impressed with the demand for corporate credit in both IG and HY.

Treasuries... New ranges... Resistance around 1.46 and first support is the recent high yields of yesterday of 1.56... 1.62 after that... Then 1.70, and then the old high of 1.77 10 years.. After that we start to talk about 2% 10 year... The first time we hit 1.77 in the spring, it was being forced by inflation numbers, which we have said all year were not transitory... The new back off in treasury prices catalyst is clearly because of the new Hawkish Fed and tapering... Convexity selling and liquidation of sloppy longs have helped...This Fed, even without Rosengren and Kaplan, is still very Hawkish... And Rosengren's voting seat for 2022 will be taken by an old Wharton friend , Pat Harker, of the Phillie Fed... So by another Hawk... Kaplan was not a voter until 2023. One other thing worth noting is the slope of the yield curve, 5/30 curve... 94 to 108... A break either way is worth noting... We think steeper is a 'go with' trade.

Corporate spreads were wider yesterday, but very manageable... 12 billion of new issues were priced in IG, concessions moved 22 basis IPT... HY came with 5 issues... And this morning we saw one deal 20x oversubscribed... So an equity correction is still in the cards, but it should be mild.


Lastly China looks uglier every day... Evergrande sold a chunk of a bank they own but none of the proceeds will go to pay bond holders... And articles are still sleuthing to see if China will pay interest on its dollar bonds...Hey guys, these bonds are trading at the low 20s last we looked, they are not going to pay coupons... And the FT has an article on the China Belt and Road Initiative, almost 400 billion of debt is owed to China, exceeding 10% of many countries GDP...

That's it for now... Flew back to NY yesterday... Plane was empty, the opposite of flying out to California the previous week... Airports are empty... In Austin yesterday there was no one in front of us going through security... In NY for a few days and then back to Austin next week....

Twitter is lit up with talk of RGS this morning.

To the moon ($12 please)

sold $RGS 7.5C for $0.35 Oct 15.

You can't make this stuff up. LOL