austinAG90 said:

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New HY for 10 Year... 1.447... Charts Looking Ugly... Fed Inflation fears

First observation is that the treasury market is in trouble... Fed is ready to taper...if they get any decent employment number on October 8, they will announce and start tapering in November... Market is not ready for this and is going through an adjustment faze..1.50 looks next but it won't stop there.. 1.60 is clearly a target...Fed is worried about inflation... And per our comment earlier that tapering is tightening on steroids... Many will disagree... The Fed is about to give the street back their risk of duration... If the Fed taper starts in November and ends first half of 2022... That is 120 billion a month that the street is going to take down,...then the Fed backstop will be gone until the next crisis... Problem is that tapering does nothing for the current economy except make asset prices too high... Supply chain issues are horrible... Shelves are no longer fully stocked in stores... Inflation continues to ramp up... Transitory thoughts are not based in fact... So look for treasuries to adjust... Meanwhile corporate spreads are still solid... Hopefully it will be the treasury market that adjusts...but it could leak into the risk category...meaning equities... Not our call just yet... But we think treasuries have much further to go.

Powell up next

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You're speaking of the mortgage back purchases, correct? If so, I don't think they're needed anyway. The housing market doesn't need propping...or does it? If the Fed stops (tapers) the mortgage side, I don't see an equities impact or any other impact. However, if wanting to scare the hell out of people with a maneuver like this, "October" is definitely the month to do it. History shows the majority of bad things impacting the stock market happen in October and most people are puckered through this specific month, so there's that. Otherwise, I agree with everything else you wrote. JMO.

Thank you for your posts! I appreciate them!

SF2004 said:

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Starting to think the "supply chain" issues are self inflicted and not being used as an excuse to jack up prices and revenue.

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? The Dems are still paying people to sit at home on their asses everywhere. You've got less people to do the work (whether manufacturing or transport). And China's still got lots of issues on its end as well.

It is funny... There is always something that comes out of left field to hurt markets in either September or October... Fed back stop is waning and I think yields go much higher... Equities and risk have a bid for a bit... Not sure how long..

Don't hurt'em SAVA.


Actually, RIP THEIR ****ING SHORT SELLING HEADS OFF.

^^^ What he said ^^^

What a great buying opp last week when SAVA hit 39. That I missed.

austinAG90 said:

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It is funny... There is always something that comes out of left field to hurt markets in either September or October... Fed back stop is waning and I think yields go much higher... Equities and risk have a bid for a bit... Not sure how long..

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We play Bama every October.

AG 2000' said:

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What a great buying opp last week when SAVA hit 39. That I missed.

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Just happy I got in at 55.

Philip J Fry said:

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What's the take on DNN? Looks like a long way down in the 1.35 support doesn't hold.

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Here's what I've been tracking. It's been fibbing perfectly. First image completed 5 waves up. So I consider that a wave (1) of a larger wave structure. The orange fibs are fib retracement from the wave (1) high and low. Red fibs are fib retracement from the wave "a" of (2) high and low. Second image is the typical path a structure like this would take if it ends up hitting wave 2 where I think it will. Of course.. things can change. But even if the future structure changes, I still see the trend impulsively upward. We would need to break below $1.00 again for me to scrap this and start over.

FJ43 said:

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All out on FB lottos from .36 - .88

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About right.....these are 1.18 1.46 1.65 1.95 now

Double_Bagger said:

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$SAVA

Assuming SAVA continues this trend, next weeks C65/70 spread @1.6 is attractive.

Could do straight calls if you want a home run, but higher risk. If we lose this trend you could lose 50% in a hurry.

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In. Risk = premium paid.

Quite honestly it's building volume out really nice here at $64 just under a daily pivot. If it breaks R1, R2 is 70.29 today by itself.

AMD going to fill the gap I identified.

Problem is.. premium has been killed since my calls expire today.

8:30am - Bought 10 $106 9/24 calls for $0.30.
8:40am - Sold 6 for $0.50.
Premium at the top of the gap fill if it completes now - likely $0.30 at best.

Shold have sold all this morning instead of going net free. Oh well.. can still make some money.

SAVA has pulled back to the ORH.......if it wants to show it's not a fakeout, has to hold this level and head up again......otherwise we balance.

RE: SAVA - Some good ol fashion short covering and add-in some heady buyers gives me reason to think we have a recipe for $70 today.