BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Here's an interesting play I'm likely buying tomorrow late or Thursday depending on options prices:

The Bear case against Costco (COST):

FA:
It certainly feels like a lot of the air has been taken out of the sails here as I suspect we near the end of this incredible bull run. Costco, in my opinion, is like a microcosm of the US economy. It has groceries, electronics, clothing, lawn furniture, games, television, phones, etc. It's quite comprehensive as a store. And it makes a good chunk of its profits on subscriptions. A lot of folks are speculating that their renewals are gonna go down with this report coming Thursday. My wife (who I consider the epitome of the American shopper, God bless her!) tonight told me she hasn't been shopping there as much these past few months. She really had no explanation except to say she's not buying snacks for the kids in bulk like she was during lockdown or something. Americans change habits from time to time and have no explanation. This company will always be solid in terms of cost of goods, etc., but I think supply chains are about to cut into their success as well. Supply chain issues are becoming increasingly painful and common. FedEx tonight got hammered on their report and fell more than 10 pts AH.

TA:
Evergrande is getting a lot of credit for Monday's debacle but I suspect that's just a popular narrative. People knew they were insolvent for months. I think Monday was a big distribution day, and volume was super high across a lot of sectors and companies. COST took a dump down $12 at one point before marching back toward the end of the day. Today, it gained back almost 1 pt on very low volume (likely retail thinking they bought the dip haha!).

If you look closely at the charts, the SPY and COST charts can be nearly superimposed on one another in terms of growth over the last year (save for a few minor pullbacks here and there). That's why I said this company is like a microcosm of our entire economy.

I digress. Investors have very little appetite for these enormous costs of stocks anymore. COST is $450/share! $45,000 to own 100 shares of 1 company. The average American investor can maybe afford a few shares, certainly not 100. Amazon had its best earnings report EVER recently and promptly tanked 400 points. There's simply no appetite for these highly expensive companies.

COST recently completed a H&S pattern and fell fairly well about 10 points. It's trying to bounce back right now and finds itself in a double top pattern (after falling nearly 10 points on Monday). Volume looks to support the downward trend. My guess is more bad news forces this stock price down significantly Thursday evening.

Conclusion:

I think the FedEx report from today is a harbinger of things to come. Supply chain woes and increasing costs are chipping into profits. My family is feeling it. I suspect we all are. Kroger recently reported their profits were cut because they kept prices down despite increasing costs. Who on Earth will see this stock shooting up Thursday AH?

I am not a nearly good enough technician to tell you which calls/puts to buy or sell and what price to bail or whatever? My plan is to buy ATM or near the money calls near end of day tomorrow or Thursday….a lotto so to speak with expiration on Friday.

I welcome all criticisms. Thanks and have a great night!

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Good research, nice thesis. Confused though as you seem bearish, yet you want to buy calls? Also, as I know you are somewhat new to the game, just don't play ER's, especially with options. It might work, but usually doesn't, IV crush. This is a game of taking risk with the best probabilities. You are probably right, but short shares if you really want to play er. AMZN er was a disaster also, missed on revenue and guided lower.

McInnis 03 said:

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lobwedgephil said:

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Futures all went vertical on good China news.

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Evergrande is making its bond payment.

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Recession canceled!

30k I've learned a ton from you and will continue to gobble up any tidbits you're able to throw our way. Also when you get your ferrari don't forget to tweet the steering wheel/timepiece flex

Quote:

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Cassava Sciences Announces Top-Line Results Of 12-month Interim Analysis From Open-Label Study Evaluating Simufilam In Alzheimer's Disease; Says Cognition Scores Improved 3.2 Points On ADAS-Cog, Baseline To Month 12
8:31 am ET September 22, 2021 (Benzinga) Print

• Cognition Scores Improved 3.2 Points on ADAS-Cog, Baseline to Month 12 (p<0.001)

• Two Independent Biostatisticians Analyzed Changes in ADAS-Cog Scores, Baseline to Month 12
• No Behavior Disorders on NPI in Over 50% Of Study Subjects at Month 12
• Initiation of Pivotal Phase 3 Clinical Program Remains On-track for Q4 2021, with Special Protocol Assessments from FDA

AUSTIN, Texas, Sept. 22, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cassava Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAVA) announced top-line clinical data today from a pre-planned interim analysis of an on-going open-label study with its drug candidate simufilam in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease.
In a study funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), ADAS-Cog11 scores improved an average of 3.2 points from baseline (p<0.001) in the first 50 study subjects who completed 12 months of open-label treatment with simufilam. To emphasize impartiality, changes in ADAS-Cog scores baseline to month 12 were independently analyzed by two consulting biostatisticians.
"I feel energized and encouraged by the clinical data," said Remi Barbier, President & CEO. "We look forward to the initiation of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pivotal Phase 3 clinical program with simufilam in people with Alzheimer's disease."

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So I am an employed spine neurosurgeon in the Medical City system here in DFW. To disclose fully, I have no shares or vested financial interest in the company.

I was reviewing the company's chart (HCA) this morning. As you may recall, the stock ripped 35 pts about 2 months ago on a stellar earnings report. In contrast, the stock fell from its ATH on Monday to down about 10 points or so before recovering some losses late on Monday.

What I found interesting is that the volume on the selloff Monday far outweighed the volume on the price rip 2 months ago. Just food for thought. This is classic distribution. Institutions unloading on retail thinking they bought the dip.

My guess is that 35 pt gap closes in next 2-3 months.

I hope that short seller finds his nuts in a vise!

SAVA's marketing team needs upgraded.

Not announcing yesterday on World Alzheimer's Day, then putting out their news this morning after their first cup of coffee.

Also, who bought vale yesterday!? Apparently china will, in fact, continue to need Brazilian iron!

Ferris Wheel Allstar said:

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ProgN said:

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I hope that short seller finds his nuts in a vise!

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he is right now

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I'd like to see a law office announce, "Do you feel like you been manipulated by some lawyers attacking SAVA and wanting to know if you lost money? Then arbitrarily the share price was driven down on false information? If you lost money on this downward spiral in the past 21 days, call us and join our class action suit against these manipulative lawyers".

Checking in on FJ, not sure how I am supposed to know the futures without my mornun shapshot!

bmoochie said:

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Checking in on FJ, not sure how I am supposed to know the futures without my mornun shapshot!

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I'm in the car already on the way to TN to check on him. Picture a fat old guy in the General Lee blasting journey.

bmoochie said:

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Checking in on FJ, not sure how I am supposed to know the futures without my mornun shapshot!

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Morning! I'm alive! Late night and more of the same today.

I trimmed some APPS calls on the push and holding a few SPY calls but plan to be flat on index plays when JP speaks.

30K taking a leave of absence and now FJ not showing up!

BullSprig07 said:

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30K taking a leave of absence and now FJ not showing up!

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THIS IS YOUR TIME MC. IT'S ALL. ON. YOU. NOW.

Yessir! Let's show'em how we do.