SF - I am going to do $SPY now, but I want to be upfront that I am not going to update this. I am going to update the SPX chart for a bit. I need something clean to look at intraday and I use SPY + ES_F for that. I will also try to explain why these are support/resistance levels.

This is weekly support and resistance on the SPY. Here is how I came up with these levels. The prices other than ATH are general ranges, but I had to draw the line somewhere.

• 454.05 - this is easy, it is the all time high
• 445 area - see the candles that stop/start around this line? It served as resistance on the way up, then support on the way down. This is fairly strong support. 4 touches
• 440 area - this is where we are now. Not as strong, with 3 touches. 50/55 DEMA are also in this range
• 435 area - very strong support - 6 touches and once it powered through on July 19 it did not come back
• 431 area - this is where the weekly 21 is. In my opinion this is as low as this is likely to go right now, assuming we have major pukage, with 2% more coming off before a bounce. We will hit this in October, I believe
• 427 area - 4 touches, pretty strong support

If we get down to 435, I will be taking a nuclear long there. Daily coming up.

Something else I like to do is look at move symmetry to see how current moves compare to other ones.

You'll see that the current dip we're having isn't really out of character, especially compared to some of the moves earlier in the year. It's also worth noting that the days after triple/quad witch OPEX have been up days the last couple of times, but all of which dipped post open before reverting

• June: 75 point move to the upside
• March: 40 point upside move

September and December of 2020 were down days, but with reactive lows June of 2020 was an up day, and we can't really count March of 2020

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Really appreciate this! So if we hold at 435, you will buy long dated calls? You typically buy them ATM?

On a side note, how much attention do you pay to the individual candles from last week? We had a big negative candle middle of last week followed by an inside green candle then what looked like a doji? Did that doji represent a reversal on the green candle or the preceding downtrend? Then, we had a big red candle on Friday. It seems unlikely to have a large green candle without more evidence of a reversal such as a hammer or a bullish engulfing candle or something? Is this right?

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This is just me, but if we have a test and reversal at 435, I would actually go shorter dated ATM - or- if I went longer dated OTM, I would prepare to sell them on the spike.

Last week was frankly OPEX characteristic action. We had been in downtrend since September 7 when we closed below the low of the high bar. Using the high of low bar definition, Wednesday was technically a reversal, Thursday was still in trend, and Friday was a close below the low of the high bar, therefore a confirmed reverse downward. The bulls blew it Friday by not closing above 4430.

If this were a week other than OPEX, my reaction to this price action would have been "oh, shiat". Because we pushed under the 8 and 21, they crossed, the price retested the 8/21 and rejected lower. We had price action like this in both April and February, both of which resolved up. It could be different this time, just remember down trends aren't linear.

If you looked at this with fibs against the daily chart, we haven't had a 50% fib level test on any day since the ATH if you started at the current ATH. For grins, I decided to plot one on the prior cycle high and I thought this was super interesting. This would suggest that we bounce from around here or maybe a little lower.

Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

$ZM too beaten up. This is a quality product and the need for video conferencing will not go away.

entry above 8 EMA. Cut 282. Easy.



Will post other ideas on twitter. https://twitter.com/30kTrades

I don't want to post over Irish Pete.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

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I am very sorry to hear, prayers incoming.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

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I am sorry to hear. Prayers lifted.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

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Praying for your mom right now brother.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

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Your post pains me. I'm sorry brother. I've prayed for your mother everyday since you first requested and I will continue to do so. Whatever happens, thank you for sharing it with us and know that everyone on this thread will do anything to help. We're family on this thread, left/right are all present and I'm confident in stating that everyone here supports you and your family. God speed and my His strength permeate your mother and whole family during this difficult time.

Amen

irish pete ag06 said:

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Major prayers needed fellas. Mom is going on a vent. She hasn't shown any improvement for 3 weeks. She was struggling on the bipap this morning. I pray that she pulls through. My sons love their gingy.

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Praying right now!

Mornun....

Pretty red to begin here. EU red and Asia mixed.



VIX at 25.

Let's see if this 4370-80 area on ES holds or not as we go. We are well below the 50EMA
NQ isn't to the 50EMA yet so will be watching for a hold there.

Welcome back to the markets gents....



Trade wisely!

Gird your loins; the contagion from Evergrande will be fascinating to watch.

1. Impacts on broader Chinese RE, which is a hefty chunk of China's economy. How does that trickle down to the suppliers, etc.

2. Commodity impacts. You are already seeing AUS mining companies take a hit as demand for steel, etc. dry up because of the Evergrande/RE implosion in China.

3. Lack of NG supplies for Europe (and maybe the US?) at a very early time of the year. This also ties into China potentially needing to impose blackouts and further constrict economic activity.

4. Massive supply chain snarls that probably won't be resolved until 2022.

Buckle up.

4365 SPX is a pretty key level. It's either going to be the bottom of the a-wave of this pullback (with b taking us correctively back up before a larger c down) or it's the c and we go up impulsively from there. When measuring fib extensions, I've got it as the c on SPX, but ES doesn't line up the same and I've got it as the a. And of course, SPY doesn't commit to either and could go either way. We shall see.

Also of note, there's a small gap on the daily SPX chart down to 4000 range. There's also a gap above formed late last week.

We could obviously go down lower but days that start like this normally don't end up down this much.