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FJ43
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FJ43 said:

FJ43 said:

How's it going crew?

I haven't posted many setups or ideas the past 7-10 days as I am focusing intraday on only a very few a day and SPY. Scalps is all and quick in and outs.

Not comfortable posting setups only to have them fail with these markets. If not executed perfectly they can quickly turn which they have on me one too many times the past few weeks.

Once we get confirmation one way or the other I will get some posted to play....up or down. Not a big fan of absolutes that the market is going to do this or that so I will just let it tell me what it will do first.

Lotto idea if the markets hold could be MSFT 305C. MSFT could lead if so.


MSFT pre lotto popped.

.37 to .50 now.
Going to go net free into this next resistance.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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FJ43 said:


For all of your files....

SPX

I went ahead and extended SPX out to include the next few Monthly OpEx dates. Those are the blue vertical lines/dates.

I also extended the 50EMA trend manually - blue EMA line.

Assuming we get back on trend maybe this helps you plan accordingly.

One thing to notice this round which causes me to pause....the pattern this month. It has not been the same pattern as most all prior periods.

If we pop tomorrow or Monday then ok....if not....IMO whoops.





In the Book of Farmer,....Red Friday 9/17 = Green Monday 9/20, and I should add the Book has few pages remaining due to market projected failures that caused me to rip the page out and burn..

In all seriousness, I'm banking on Red Friday and Green Monday. It's my belief we are in a mini correction now and ends Friday-ish. I'm bullish to year-end.
ProgN
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Put SFIX back on your radar. Charts looks like sip leaving Arkansas last Sunday but from here, looks like minimal downside and a solid 6 month play with the 4th qtr Christmas sales on deck.
Carlo4
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AG
H-town ag said:

H-town ag said:

ELOX with some volume and move!
LET'S GO!
Its going to do it's usual fade back to 1.6X territory after the bump like this, but we are making higher highs and lows. let's break out of 1.80!
FJ43
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

FJ43 said:


For all of your files....

SPX

I went ahead and extended SPX out to include the next few Monthly OpEx dates. Those are the blue vertical lines/dates.

I also extended the 50EMA trend manually - blue EMA line.

Assuming we get back on trend maybe this helps you plan accordingly.

One thing to notice this round which causes me to pause....the pattern this month. It has not been the same pattern as most all prior periods.

If we pop tomorrow or Monday then ok....if not....IMO whoops.





In the Book of Farmer,....Red Friday 9/17 = Green Monday 9/20, and I should add the Book has few pages remaining due to market projected failures that caused me to rip the page out and burn..

In all seriousness, I'm banking on Red Friday and Green Monday. It's my belief we are in a mini correction now and ends Friday-ish. I'm bullish to year-end.
I lean the same brother. Think tomorrow has some fireworks then Monday we resume the madness.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Next week calls on any meaningful press down tomorrow could be a nice play.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Spoony Love
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AG
I'm wondering if those MSFT 307.5C would be a cheap lotto tomorrow if it closes around 303.5 - 304?

They would be about .20 at end of day and maybe we see it shoot for ATH. But then again it's OPEX.
confucius_ag
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AG
Just going to caution again that the shipping situation is still a mess. I have loads out of Europe that are now getting hit with surcharges similar to what we have seen out of Asia.
FJ43
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Spoony Love said:

I'm wondering if those MSFT 307.5C would be a cheap lotto tomorrow if it closes around 303.5 - 304?

They would be about .20 at end of day and maybe we see it shoot for ATH. But then again it's OPEX.
Just me I prefer closer to the money. On lottos (0 DTE) I like trying to go ITM on the move if possible.

Could try the 307.5s though. The 305 will be .50-.60 and if those went ITM at 307.5 you're talking a 4-5X trade.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Spoony Love
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AG
You're likely correct. I think if it wasn't OPEX week, there is enough steam there to get really close to a 307.5 close tomorrow. Let's see where it closes.
gougler08
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AG
Prognightmare said:

Put SFIX back on your radar. Charts looks like sip leaving Arkansas last Sunday but from here, looks like minimal downside and a solid 6 month play with the 4th qtr Christmas sales on deck.
Working on a reversal candle today
Brewmaster
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AG
who's trying to sell ELOX 11/19 2.50p's for 1.30? get that outta here! lol
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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One last item,....

Ag commodities (my career) we are in what the industry calls "gut-slot harvest" as producers deliver grains (beans a bit later in the season) to the elevators. Elevator bids to producers should be at their lowest right now. It's supply versus demand. Well, throughout the Midwest, yesterday was some record bidding taking place at elevators. Happened last year too. This is 180 degrees different than what normally should happen. Again, cash bids should be at there lowest point right now and they aren't, hitting some highs of the year. The commodity futures markets are not reflecting what is taking place in the cash markets. It's like the futures markets don't care and/or are suppressed.

At some point, boutique brewery's and pasta makers to major commercial soybean processing plants and grain elevators etc. will be bidding up for ag goods and talking about it in the press. The futures market will need to suddenly wake up. Will New York money go to Chicago? I don't know. Fundamentals say commodities should scream...pretty soon. If you think you're seeing food inflation now, I'd project it will be much worse over the next 12 months. Farmer's household food expenditures are up 5.79% (Jan to present versus last year)...probably related to JPOWELL's transitory inflation (sarcasm). Durum wheat (pasta wheat) availability along with most other quality milling bread wheats are tough to source. Lentils and chick peas and other staples experiencing difficulty too. If you're a pasta eater, buying a couple extra bags or boxes wouldn't be a bad idea. I'm not saying tank-up, but having a bit more pantry inventory then normal is not a bad thing. When a Kraft Mac & Cheese box triples or quadruples in price, there will be some angry folks.

My favorite beef cut is the Tomahawk steak, generally 3 lbs, in July the typical price was $38 today it's $52 in my marketplace. I know, I know, it's a first-world problem, but steak to hamburger is on an incline. Pork and chicken are reasonable, red meat is on the upward trend and been so for a while.

USDA pulled a stunt last week. I'll spare the long, short of the matter, they up'ed the supply side on corn in a problem year. USDA numbers aren't accurate, hell they are still correcting last years numbers. If they are trying to suppress prices to flatten inflation it doesn't work. The cash market will determine that point and right now it says commodities are tight, regardless what the futures markets reflect.

This is probably my only case to see a setback in the stock market before year end should money leave New York and head to Chicago...this or a financial disaster in China.
Brewmaster
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AG
BREwmaster said:

who's trying to sell ELOX 11/19 2.50p's for 1.30? get that outta here! lol
lol, they just dropped the ask to 1.25.
Thundergon
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ASAN $118 LOL
Brewmaster
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AG
great post and thanks for the insight! even if I don't understand half that.

If push comes to shove I guess I need to get that AR and start hog hunting for my pork butts!
cptthunder
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NRD09 said:

cptthunder said:

FJ43 said:

cptthunder said:

I'm away from my computer so could someone tell me what the ATR is for GOOGL
Thinking of some early lotto time
Thanks!
2833.30

Thanks! Looks like that is close to the 21 EMA also, if we get close might pull the trigger on some Sept17 2900C

I went ahead and took a couple of these at 1.4, thinking about taking my 30% and going home
Edit: shoulda coulda woulda
Looks like this could be your shot to jump out if you are still holding, Im out of these and rolled into some 2930 lottos for tomorrow with profits
SoTXAg09
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AG
Looks like MM are really expecting a dip tomorrow. SPY is 446.82 and tomorrow's 446c and 445p are priced similarly.
mazag08
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AG
Wow. Huge thanks for the insight. I absolutely love reading info like this. Anytime you want to post more feel free.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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FJ43 said:

Next week calls on any meaningful press down tomorrow could be a nice play.
Agree!
cptthunder
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Sold a little more then half and decided to go Net Free on $LPTX
Another absolute monster of a day volume wise
Triple_Bagger
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Thundergon said:

ASAN $118 LOL
I put in an order to short sell at $120. This move has been crazier than the last one. RSI approaching 90.

*and yes, I like stepping in front of trains
gougler08
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AG
This PLTR breakout is nice...let's go gap close at 31.34 next week
FJ43
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FJ43 said:

FJ43 said:

FJ43 said:

How's it going crew?

I haven't posted many setups or ideas the past 7-10 days as I am focusing intraday on only a very few a day and SPY. Scalps is all and quick in and outs.

Not comfortable posting setups only to have them fail with these markets. If not executed perfectly they can quickly turn which they have on me one too many times the past few weeks.

Once we get confirmation one way or the other I will get some posted to play....up or down. Not a big fan of absolutes that the market is going to do this or that so I will just let it tell me what it will do first.

Lotto idea if the markets hold could be MSFT 305C. MSFT could lead if so.


MSFT pre lotto popped.

.37 to .50 now.
Going to go net free into this next resistance.
These are a double+ now so leaving only runners for tomorrow.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

jwhitlock3
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anybody watching the volume in LIDR?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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This scenario is not as fun as most of the plays on this thread, but here goes a pokey one.

BTI currently $37.14 / -$0.06

I own a ton of this in my dividend portfolio. Dividend is $0.74

Should 9/17 Friday open red and BTI is available to purchase under $37 shares are good ownership value.

Between Monday 9/20 and 9/30 the ExDiv date. There should be a run-up equating to approximate Div. I think it has a really good chance of exceeding $37.50 in this time period.

At $37.40 to $37.50 I'll be looking to sell Jan 21 Covered Calls $40 @ $0.40 - or - $45 @ $0.10.

Date of record is October 1st.

The dividend pay November 16th.

There's a foreign fee that gets charged but it's not much. If you do this in a Roth, there is no foreign fee.

We'll see what happens.
Brewmaster
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AG
jwhitlock3 said:

anybody watching the volume in LIDR?
no but the volume on IRNT 60C's for tomorrow, check that. Wowza! just came through I think
jwhitlock3
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BREwmaster said:

jwhitlock3 said:

anybody watching the volume in LIDR?
no but the volume on IRNT 60C's for tomorrow, check that. Wowza! just came through I think
holy cow...65k contracts?? Someone is seriously betting on a $15 move?
FJ43
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jwhitlock3 said:

BREwmaster said:

jwhitlock3 said:

anybody watching the volume in LIDR?
no but the volume on IRNT 60C's for tomorrow, check that. Wowza! just came through I think
holy cow...65k contracts?? Someone is seriously betting on a $15 move?
462% IV
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

jwhitlock3
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I feel like the smart move here is capitalizing on the high IV by selling premium but I'm not seeing a big play. Maybe 39/40 put spreads at .40ish
Brewmaster
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AG
FJ43 said:

jwhitlock3 said:

BREwmaster said:

jwhitlock3 said:

anybody watching the volume in LIDR?
no but the volume on IRNT 60C's for tomorrow, check that. Wowza! just came through I think
holy cow...65k contracts?? Someone is seriously betting on a $15 move?
462% IV
LOL, haha, that's nuts.

FJ43
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jwhitlock3 said:

I feel like the smart move here is capitalizing on the high IV by selling premium but I'm not seeing a big play. Maybe 39/40 put spreads at .40ish
I am sure there is going to be money made on this one but too risky for my blood on OpEx/Quad Witch Friday.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Triple_Bagger
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Double_Bagger said:

Thundergon said:

ASAN $118 LOL
I put in an order to short sell at $120. This move has been crazier than the last one. RSI approaching 90.

*and yes, I like stepping in front of trains
Rejected at 119.99. Probably a blessing my order didn't get filled, but could have made a quick 3 points.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
cptthunder said:

NRD09 said:

cptthunder said:

FJ43 said:

cptthunder said:

I'm away from my computer so could someone tell me what the ATR is for GOOGL
Thinking of some early lotto time
Thanks!
2833.30

Thanks! Looks like that is close to the 21 EMA also, if we get close might pull the trigger on some Sept17 2900C

I went ahead and took a couple of these at 1.4, thinking about taking my 30% and going home
Edit: shoulda coulda woulda
Looks like this could be your shot to jump out if you are still holding, Im out of these and rolled into some 2930 lottos for tomorrow with profits

Missed that exit, bought more at .85. Let's lotto!
Also got filled on 1 vxx 25.5c for .25
BrokeAssAggie
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Bought some shares. Ripster, Stewy and Red Dog are all currently holding.

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